交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.19-1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花总体围绕14500上下震荡，棉花经过前一轮快速上涨之后，目前消化涨幅，进一步上 冲动力不足，同时下跌也有支撑。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the cotton futures market was in a bottom - building phase, with the annual trend mainly influenced by Sino - US trade relations, a significant decline in imports, and a notable increase in Xinjiang's cotton production. The price reached a low due to Sino - US trade tensions, rose due to supply concerns from import decline, and then fell back due to higher - than - expected new cotton production [1]. - In 2026, whether cotton prices continue to build the bottom or rebound depends on supply - side drivers. There is a risk of reduced planting globally, and the price is expected to move upward. The operating range of the cotton 2601 contract is expected to be 13200 - 14000, and that of the 2605 contract is estimated to be 13400 - 14500. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices, and downstream industrial customers can consider buying hedging opportunities at the lower end of the range [2][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term Cotton Trends and 2025 Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Historical Review - Since the listing of Zhengzhou cotton futures in 2004, its price has fluctuated greatly, with a historical low of around 9800 and a high of 34870. The price is affected by economic cycles, weather, and policies. The long - term trend can be divided into ten stages, including supply - demand balance, bull and bear markets, and periods affected by events such as the European debt crisis, Sino - US trade frictions, and weather disturbances [11]. 3.1.2 2025 Futures Market Summary - In 2025, domestic cotton futures showed a typical range - bound pattern. From January to April, the price declined due to unmet demand expectations and Sino - US trade frictions. From May to August, it rose due to supply concerns and eased trade relations. From September to November, it fell back as new cotton production pressure emerged [20][21]. 3.1.3 2025 Spot Market Summary - In 2025, the domestic cotton spot market showed a pattern of "range - bound with a slight shift in the center of gravity." The annual average price of 3128B cotton was 14791 yuan/ton, slightly up from the beginning of the year but down year - on - year. The price declined from January to April due to trade frictions, rose from May to July due to improved expectations and supply concerns, and fell again from August to November due to new cotton production expectations and weak demand [22][23]. 3.1.4 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of cotton futures decreased. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 61340818 lots, a 24.41% year - on - year decline, and the cumulative turnover was 41646 billion yuan, a 31.3% year - on - year decline. The open interest was relatively stable, with a slight increase in October. As of the end of October, the open interest was 918452 lots, higher than the same period last year [25]. 3.2 Global Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply Market Analysis - **2025/26 Annual Global Cotton Production Growth**: In 2025/26, global cotton production is expected to reach 120 million bales (about 26.13 million tons), a 0.67% year - on - year increase. The growth mainly comes from Brazil and China, while the production of other major cotton - producing countries such as the US and India is flat or slightly declining. The final output of Australia is the main uncertainty [32][33]. - **2026/27 Annual Global Cotton Production Forecast**: In 2026/27, global cotton planting enthusiasm is generally expected to be average, and the area expansion motivation is limited. The core variable of future production will focus on yield performance. Brazil's production is expected to be stable but slightly decreased [38][39]. 3.2.2 Global Cotton Demand Market Analysis - **2026/27 Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2026. Although the growth in 2025 was slightly higher than expected, factors such as high tariffs, public debt, and geopolitical tensions pose threats to the global economy in 2026 [46]. - **Textile and Apparel Markets in Developed Countries**: In 2025, the US textile and apparel market showed some resilience, with moderate growth in consumption and imports. The EU market had strong import growth, and the Japanese market had a moderate increase in both volume and value. However, in 2026, high tariffs will pose challenges to the US consumer market [47][52][55]. - **Asian Textile Markets**: In 2025, India's clothing exports increased by diversifying markets, Bangladesh's exports were stable but faced some challenges, and Vietnam's textile industry had a complex situation of "upstream production increase, downstream production decrease, and export value increase" [57][60][62]. 3.2.3 Performance of US Cotton Prices during the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - Since 2000, during the Fed's four major interest - rate cut cycles, the impact of interest - rate cuts on US cotton prices was limited. Cotton prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - monetary policies only have an indirect impact [67][69]. 3.2.4 US Cotton Futures Prices Continue to Build the Bottom - In 2026, the pressure on the global cotton supply side will weaken. The planting enthusiasm for global cotton is decreasing, and the US cotton price has fallen below the production cost line. The demand side has high uncertainty due to economic growth slowdown and trade policies. The trend of US cotton futures prices in 2026 will focus on "bottom - building," and weather conditions will be the key factor [72][74]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Cotton Supply Situation Analysis - **This Year's Production Expansion and Next Year's Policy Impact**: This year, domestic cotton production has significantly increased, mainly due to the expansion of planting area. Next year, the planting area is expected to remain stable. The key factors affecting production will be policies and weather [75][78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Forecast**: In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased significantly. In 2026, the import volume is expected to remain low, with the estimated range between 1.1 million and 1.4 million tons [81][83]. 3.3.2 Domestic Cotton Demand Situation Analysis - **2025 Textile Industry Performance**: In 2025, the Chinese textile industry showed a trend of "stable production but reduced profits." The production was stable, but the profit margin shrank due to weak market demand and high costs [87][92]. - **2025 Domestic Sales Market**: In 2025, the domestic textile and apparel sales market was "stable in retail but under pressure in profits." The retail sales increased moderately, but the production enterprises faced operational pressure. In 2026, the market is expected to run smoothly under policy support [98][100]. - **2025 Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, textile and apparel exports were under pressure due to factors such as global economic slowdown and US tariff policies. In 2026, the export situation will still be challenging, although the tariff advantage of Southeast Asian countries to the US is narrowing [103][105]. - **Substitution Competition of Polyester Staple Fiber and Viscose Staple Fiber**: The substitution competition between polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, and cotton is still strong. In 2026, the substitution pressure is expected to continue, and the price difference between cotton and chemical fibers will be the key factor [110][111]. 3.3.3 Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 period, the domestic cotton market is expected to maintain a general supply - demand balance, with a slight increase in total supply and a slight decrease in consumption, resulting in a small inventory accumulation [112]. 3.4 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. Based on the expected decline in imports, the support for the far - month price is gradually strengthening [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - According to the seasonal chart of the cotton futures index, the probability of price increases is relatively high in April and December, and the probability of price declines is relatively high in February and May [121]. 3.6 Cotton Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - In 2026, the supply side pressure is not significant, and the focus is on processing rhythm, planting area and yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand side faces challenges, mainly from the export market and substitution pressure. The price trend depends on supply - side drivers, and it is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices [124][127]. 3.7 Cotton Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategies - For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. For downstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. For speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [134]. 3.8 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the price changes of some cotton - related stocks from January 2, 2025, to December 12, 2025, with different stocks showing varying degrees of increase or decrease [136].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡上行，短期走出反弹新高。 ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5 万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口222.62亿美元， 同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加 16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存845万 吨。 对美出口关税降低10%，国内新棉采摘基 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. Positive news from China-US negotiations and previous price over - decline led to price recovery. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. After a round of rebound, the futures main contract 01 is consolidating in the short - term between 13,500 - 13,700 [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to ICAC's September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons. According to USDA's September report, the output in the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report on the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Slightly increased purchase price of seed cotton and year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [7]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" period for domestic cotton has passed, and the overall market is relatively quiet. The outcome of Sino-US negotiations remains uncertain. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, 09, is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 12,900 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors include a decrease in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the imposition of tariffs by the US, a halt in exports to the US, and the introduction of a European bill restricting imports [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US have imposed large - scale tariffs on each other. In March, the textile industry prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. According to USDA, consumption was lowered and inventory increased in April, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted an increase in production compared to the previous month, with unchanged consumption and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 2024/2025 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,113, and the basis is 1368 (for the 09 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 2024/2025 period is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In April 2024/2025, the total global cotton production was 2632.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly decrease of 1.5 million tons. Consumption was 2526.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a monthly decrease of 11.4 million tons. Ending inventory was 1717 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly increase of 11.5 million tons [11][12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2024/2025 period (April forecast), production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.