棉花市场2026年年报 棉花：千寻深处探春温 一绽云裳上玉墀 ——2025年棉花市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 侯芝芳 Z0014216 摘要： 2025年棉花期货整体是筑底行情。年度走势锚定因子主要是三个，一是中美贸易 关系反复，二是进口量同比下滑明显，三是新疆产量增幅较为明显。美国对等关税把 利空情绪打到极致，期价进入年内低位区间，而进口量同比下滑，使得年度尾端供应 吃紧，又把期价抬到了年内高位区间，之后又在新疆产量增幅超预期的带动下，回到 低位区间。 2026年棉花价格到底是接着筑底还是筑底回升，关键点主要还是看供应端是否有 驱动。目前种植端是有风险累积的。全球角度来看，棉花期价持续处于低位之后，种 植积极性是有所下降的，并且美棉/美玉米以及美棉/美豆比价确实也不支持其面积增 长，政策端来看，中国以及印度边际驱动也是下降的，因此棉花种植端是有缩量预期 的，不过这个风险累积是否能引发资金热情，还是要看是否有天气助力，一旦出现天 气扰动，就可能会触发一波上涨行情。国内角度来看，补贴的边际提振也在下降，同 时2026年将面临新一轮政策方案，方案定调也会引发价格波动。目前对于2026年 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡上行，短期走出反弹新高。 ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5 万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口222.62亿美元， 同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加 16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存845万 吨。 对美出口关税降低10%，国内新棉采摘基 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. Positive news from China-US negotiations and previous price over - decline led to price recovery. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. After a round of rebound, the futures main contract 01 is consolidating in the short - term between 13,500 - 13,700 [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to ICAC's September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons. According to USDA's September report, the output in the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report on the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Slightly increased purchase price of seed cotton and year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [7]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" period for domestic cotton has passed, and the overall market is relatively quiet. The outcome of Sino-US negotiations remains uncertain. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, 09, is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 12,900 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors include a decrease in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the imposition of tariffs by the US, a halt in exports to the US, and the introduction of a European bill restricting imports [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US have imposed large - scale tariffs on each other. In March, the textile industry prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. According to USDA, consumption was lowered and inventory increased in April, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted an increase in production compared to the previous month, with unchanged consumption and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 2024/2025 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,113, and the basis is 1368 (for the 09 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 2024/2025 period is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In April 2024/2025, the total global cotton production was 2632.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly decrease of 1.5 million tons. Consumption was 2526.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a monthly decrease of 11.4 million tons. Ending inventory was 1717 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly increase of 11.5 million tons [11][12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2024/2025 period (April forecast), production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.