交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（10.27-10.31） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡反弹，中美谈判传出短期利好，前期价格超跌，目前价格修复中。 全国棉花产量预计728万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550 万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海 关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2亿美元，同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少 18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140 万吨，消费740 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" period for domestic cotton has passed, and the overall market is relatively quiet. The outcome of Sino-US negotiations remains uncertain. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, 09, is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 12,900 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors include a decrease in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the imposition of tariffs by the US, a halt in exports to the US, and the introduction of a European bill restricting imports [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US have imposed large - scale tariffs on each other. In March, the textile industry prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. According to USDA, consumption was lowered and inventory increased in April, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted an increase in production compared to the previous month, with unchanged consumption and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 2024/2025 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,113, and the basis is 1368 (for the 09 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 2024/2025 period is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In April 2024/2025, the total global cotton production was 2632.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly decrease of 1.5 million tons. Consumption was 2526.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a monthly decrease of 11.4 million tons. Ending inventory was 1717 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly increase of 11.5 million tons [11][12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2024/2025 period (April forecast), production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.