交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 6：预期：郑棉主力01再度回到14000关口争夺。对于金九银十旺季能否旺起来，多空 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is nearing the end of its expansion phase, with a projected new capacity of 8.7 million tons in 2025, while the demand for PTA products is expected to continue growing due to steady demand from downstream applications such as polyester fibers, bottle sheets, and films [6][31][32] Supply Side Summary - The domestic PTA industry's effective capacity increased from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.27 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% [12][14] - As of August 2025, the industry concentration ratio (CR7) reached 76%, indicating a high level of market concentration and pricing power among leading companies [15][16] - The expansion of PTA capacity is expected to slow down, with 870,000 tons of new capacity planned for 2025, and an additional 800,000 tons planned for 2026 and beyond [19][20] Demand Side Summary - The primary demand for PTA comes from polyester fibers and films, with polyester fibers accounting for 71% of the demand and bottle sheets for 23% [26][28] - The apparent consumption of PTA in China increased from 42.36 million tons in 2019 to 65.58 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.13% [28][30] - Exports of PTA have been increasing, reaching 4.418 million tons in 2024, which is approximately 6.3% of the total domestic production [29][30] Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in PTA product profitability as the supply-side dynamics improve and demand continues to rise [31] - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. Beneficiary stocks include Hengyi Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, and Dongfang Shenghong [32][33]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xin Feng Ming is 12.16 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.41% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 0.94 billion yuan [1] - The stock price fluctuated between 12.06 yuan and 12.22 yuan during the day, with a volatility of 1.32% [1] - Xin Feng Ming operates in the chemical fiber industry, focusing on the research and production of polyester fibers and polyester filaments [1] Group 2 - The company is actively expanding its business into emerging fields such as bio-based materials, aligning with the industry's overall shift towards new materials [1] - In the context of industry-wide upgrades, many chemical fiber companies are investing and merging to enhance their supply chains, with Xin Feng Ming participating in this trend [1] - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds into Xin Feng Ming was 1.7861 million yuan, while the cumulative net outflow over the past five trading days was 20.4032 million yuan [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cash operating expenses for Q1 fiscal 2026 were $2,600,000, a reduction of $2,200,000 or 46% compared to the same quarter last year [15] - Cash used in operating activities for the quarter was $3,100,000, including working capital outflows of $800,000 [15] - The company ended the quarter with available liquidity of $12,300,000 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing discussions with leading global apparel brands and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands for textile-to-textile recycling solutions [6][7] - European beverage brands are seeking high-quality recycled PET due to declining quality from mechanical recycling [8][9] - The company confirmed a $176,000,000 CapEx for the Indian facility, with a total install cost of $95,000,000 for Loop's technology, the lowest in the industry [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Indian facility is positioned to provide high-quality PET made from 100% recycled content at competitive prices due to India's low-cost structure [9][10] - The company is focusing on site selection in Gujarat, India, with two locations narrowed down [11][35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive significant shareholder value through the rollout of manufacturing facilities and generating revenue from licensing, engineering, and modularization [18] - Modularization is expected to reduce CapEx by 50%, allowing for more projects to be built at competitive prices [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in securing customer contracts and financing for the Indian facility, with a focus on long-term agreements [22][30] - The company is optimistic about the future, citing strong relationships with customers and the potential for additional facilities in India [68] Other Important Information - The company is working with KPMG to syndicate debt financing for the Indian facility [32][70] - The total equity contribution required for the India facility is $25,000,000, with a funding gap of approximately $15,000,000 [60][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on your offtake agreements and their timing? - Management is advancing discussions with customers and expects to secure contracts, although the process may take longer due to internal steps within customer organizations [22][23] Question: What is the structure of the contracts with customers? - The company is offering fixed-price contracts to customers, which provides predictability and stability in pricing [30] Question: What are the next steps for financing and construction? - The company is focused on securing customer contracts and finalizing land selection in India, with a goal to break ground by the end of the year [36][61] Question: What is the capital intensity of Loop's facilities? - The CapEx per pound for Loop's technology is 61¢, excluding certain costs, and is expected to decrease further as facilities scale [40][44] Question: How does the company plan to handle permitting and utilities for the new sites? - The sites are in industrial zones with permitting included in the land acquisition, and the company will provide necessary utilities for the facilities [77][81]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **chemical industry**, focusing on the **polyester supply chain**, **ethylene glycol**, **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)**, and **PX (Paraxylene)** markets, along with insights into **polypropylene** and **PVC** markets. Key Insights and Arguments Polyester Supply Chain - The polyester supply chain prices are influenced by multiple factors including costs, policies, and geopolitical issues. In April, prices dropped significantly due to cost declines, while in May, prices rebounded with tariff policy changes and oil price increases. In June, Middle Eastern conflicts led to rapid oil price increases, affecting upstream aromatic prices like PX and PTA, which subsequently raised downstream product prices significantly [1][3]. - Ethylene glycol's performance in the first half of 2025 was weak, primarily due to stable supply from coal-based production amid disrupted demand, leading to a relatively soft price trend [4]. - The price spread between PX and Brent crude oil was at a near five-year low in 2025, although it recovered slightly after tariff cancellations. Overall, PX valuations remain low due to weakened gasoline cracking margins and reduced demand for toluene and xylene [5]. PX and PTA Market Dynamics - The US demand for aromatics showed a decline in April and May, particularly in toluene and benzene imports from South Korea, leading to a seasonal demand drop in Asia [6]. - Polyester fiber operating rates decreased at the beginning of the year, but remained high during seasonal declines in PX and PTA operating rates, resulting in significant destocking effects in Q2 [7]. - PTA is expected to see increased production capacity in the second half of 2025, which may lead to inventory pressure, while PX has no new capacity planned for the year, relying on imports to maintain supply-demand balance [8]. Future Market Expectations - The PTA market is expected to face inventory accumulation due to increased production and weakened polyester demand, particularly from bottle-grade polyester [13]. - The PX market's performance is closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical stability. A potential easing of Middle Eastern tensions could lead to lower oil prices, impacting PX valuations negatively [9]. - The overall polyester industry is projected to see a decrease in operating rates by 3% to 4% in the second half of 2025, with significant reductions in bottle-grade polyester production anticipated [12]. Polypropylene and PVC Market Insights - The polypropylene market is currently in a bearish trend due to accelerated capacity expansion, weak demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Seasonal demand in the second half may provide some support, but supply pressures from new production remain a concern [2][23]. - The PVC market faces significant supply-demand pressures, with high levels of new capacity expected to come online, while domestic demand remains weak due to low construction activity [52][54]. Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic policies, as these factors significantly influence market dynamics and pricing strategies across the chemical industry [20][61]. - The need for cautious optimism regarding PX imports and the overall supply-demand balance was emphasized, particularly in light of potential production disruptions and the impact of external market conditions [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the chemical industry, particularly in the polyester, polypropylene, and PVC markets.

Group 1: Polyester Fiber Market Overview - Polyester fiber is the most widely used synthetic fiber, expected to reach a global production of 79 million tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of the entire fiber market [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for polyester fiber from 2010 to 2030 is projected to be 5.1%, driven by its durability and cost-effectiveness [1] - Polyester prices remain stable due to abundant supply, primarily influenced by the price of purified terephthalic acid [1] Group 2: Regional Demand and Growth Projections - Asia will continue to dominate global polyester demand, accounting for 86% in 2024, projected to rise to approximately 89% by 2034 [2] - China's polyester demand is expected to grow from 56 million tons in 2024 to 85 million tons by 2034, while South Asia's demand will increase from 7 million tons to 13 million tons in the same period [2] - Despite potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China affecting 2025 demand, long-term fiber consumption growth is anticipated to continue [2] Group 3: Styrene Demand in South Asia - South Asia is becoming a key player in driving global styrene demand, with significant imports from East Asia [3] - The region's average annual import growth rate for styrene from 2019 to 2024 is projected to be 5.3%, making it the largest styrene importing region by 2022 [3] - By 2030, South Asia's styrene imports are expected to reach approximately 1.5 million tons, driven by strong economic growth [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in Styrene Market - The competition in the South Asian styrene market is intensifying, with exporters from various regions, including the Middle East and the U.S., vying for market share [4] - China's role in the styrene market is changing, impacting the global landscape, while India is expected to emerge as a significant consumption center [4]

Core Insights - The global textile industry is experiencing a shift towards Southeast Asia, while parts of China's textile sector are upgrading to high-end production [1][4][5] Group 1: Historical Development - The textile industry originated during the 18th century with the British Industrial Revolution, where steam engines significantly increased production efficiency [2] - By the late 19th century, the U.S. began to take over cotton textile production due to labor and resource advantages, with U.S. cotton yarn production exceeding 50% of global output by the 1920s [2] - Japan established a strong textile industry post-World War II through Western technology and government support, becoming a key manufacturing center [2] - China emerged as the world's largest textile producer and exporter in the early 21st century, with textile and apparel exports rising from 13% to 34% of global trade from 2001 to 2010 [2] - Currently, as labor costs rise in China, low-end production is shifting to Southeast Asian countries, while China focuses on high-value products [2][4] Group 2: Market Size and Growth - The global textile industry market value is projected to reach $1.07 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 2% [4][5] - The number of companies in the global textile market is estimated at 2.731 million, indicating a significant market presence [5] Group 3: Fiber Production - Global fiber production reached a record high of 124 million tons in 2023, up from 116 million tons in 2022, with polyester fibers accounting for 57% of total fiber production [7] Group 4: Market Structure - The global textile industry exhibits a low concentration level, characterized by a long-tail feature and fragmented competition, with over 3 million registered companies [10] - In the home textile sector, the top three companies hold only 2.31% market share, indicating a highly competitive environment [10] Group 5: Regional Contribution - East Asia dominates the global textile industry, accounting for $717.7 billion, or 66.89% of the total market value [12]