交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 金九预期落空，新疆棉花丰收在望，本周棉花延续下跌走势，郑棉大幅回落。 全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550 万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海 关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少 51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万 吨，消费740万吨，期末库存82 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract faces significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous China - US additional tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - The main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to multiple reports, different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is performing sluggishly. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract has significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Reduced previous China - US additional tariffs, lower commercial inventory year - on - year, and enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. ICAC's 2025/26 global production forecast is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 17.1 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 production forecast is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5][12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data No position data is presented in the provided report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market and concludes that the short - term trend of cotton is oscillating weakly. The market is affected by multiple factors, including high inventory, poor export data, and upcoming new cotton listings, although there are some positive factors such as reduced tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No content is provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 7.22 million tons, with a new high in Xinjiang. Different organizations' forecasts for the 2025/26 season vary. Textile and clothing exports in August were 26.54 billion US dollars, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,319 yuan, with a basis of 1,554 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing hedging pressure. The resistance level for the main 01 contract is around 14,000 yuan, and the short - term trend is oscillating weakly [4]. 3.3今日关注 No content is provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 - **USDA Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4]. - **ICAC Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5持仓数据 The main position is short - biased with an increasing net short position, and the main trend is unclear [4].

恒力化纤智能工厂建设集聚三大亮点：基于企业需求自主设计数据结构、应用场景及核心流程，确保业务独立性和可控性；集成熔体直纺与切片纺复合 技术，建成国内最大柔性化智能生产线，支持多品种快速转产；完成百万吨级聚酯化纤工厂的智能化改造，突破原有厂房、设备限制，打造可复制、可推广 的行业智能化转型标杆。智能工厂实施成效显著，关键设备数控化率、联网率均达100%，人工智能技术应用场景超26%，生产效率提升14%，全员劳动生产 率提高15%，实现了质量与效能的双重跃升。 近日，恒力集团再传捷报，旗下江苏恒力化纤股份有限公司的"聚酯纤维多工艺段柔性并行智能工厂"，入选国家"2025年度卓越级智能工厂项目名单"。 这不仅是恒力化纤继荣获"全国工业和信息化系统先进集体"后，本年度再获国家级权威认可，更标志着恒力聚酯纤维板块的智能制造水平已跻身全国卓越行 列。 展望未来，恒力化纤将依托集团全产业链优势，锚定"领航级智能工厂"目标，持续深化"智改数转网联"，推进全域智能场景覆盖、绿色制造技术突破与 高端装备国产化替代，为全球聚酯化纤行业智能化升级提供"恒力方案"，为制造强国建设贡献恒力力量。（顾金菊） | 序号 | 企业名称 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The green polyester industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase driven by strong demand for low-carbon consumption [10][35] - New technologies in the green polyester sector are anticipated to unlock significant development potential, moving beyond the limitations of traditional recycling methods [12][21] - The biological method in recycling technology shows distinct advantages over chemical methods, with a focus on lower energy consumption and higher flexibility in product forms [29][34] - The development of bio-based materials is gaining significant attention and is on the verge of commercialization, with key players making substantial investments [35][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Development of the Green Polyester Industry - The green transformation of plastics is primarily through recycling and bio-based materials, with polyester being the fastest-growing type [10][12] - Current recycling methods are limited, but new technologies are expected to create new opportunities in the industry [10][12] 2. New Technologies in Green Polyester - The physical recycling method is mature but limited to bottle flakes, while new technologies can expand raw material sources significantly [12][22] - Polyester's properties facilitate technological advancements, making it easier to find bio-based alternatives [21][23] 3. Advantages of Biological Methods in Recycling - Chemical recycling methods are established but have limitations in temperature and product forms, while biological methods are entering commercialization with favorable market feedback [29][30] - Companies like Carbios and domestic firms are leading the way in biological recycling technology [34][35] 4. High Attention on Bio-based Materials - The development of bio-based materials, particularly using FDCA to replace PTA, is gaining traction with significant investments from major industry players [35][39] - The commercialization of bio-based polyester is expected to happen soon, driven by clear application scenarios [35][36] 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Wankai New Materials and Xin Fengming are positioned well in the green polyester market, with strategic investments and projects underway [35][40] - The report highlights the potential for high returns due to the strong demand for green polyester products [35][40]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 01 has returned to the 14,000 mark for a battle. There are significant differences in views between bulls and bears on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous. Technically, the 14,000 mark is crucial. If it stands above, there is still upward momentum; if it falls below, there is still room for decline [5]. - The overall fundamentals of cotton are neutral. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 forecast: production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,210 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,180 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 July is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, indicating a bullish trend for the main force [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents/pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is nearing the end of its expansion phase, with a projected new capacity of 8.7 million tons in 2025, while the demand for PTA products is expected to continue growing due to steady demand from downstream applications such as polyester fibers, bottle sheets, and films [6][31][32] Supply Side Summary - The domestic PTA industry's effective capacity increased from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.27 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% [12][14] - As of August 2025, the industry concentration ratio (CR7) reached 76%, indicating a high level of market concentration and pricing power among leading companies [15][16] - The expansion of PTA capacity is expected to slow down, with 870,000 tons of new capacity planned for 2025, and an additional 800,000 tons planned for 2026 and beyond [19][20] Demand Side Summary - The primary demand for PTA comes from polyester fibers and films, with polyester fibers accounting for 71% of the demand and bottle sheets for 23% [26][28] - The apparent consumption of PTA in China increased from 42.36 million tons in 2019 to 65.58 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.13% [28][30] - Exports of PTA have been increasing, reaching 4.418 million tons in 2024, which is approximately 6.3% of the total domestic production [29][30] Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in PTA product profitability as the supply-side dynamics improve and demand continues to rise [31] - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. Beneficiary stocks include Hengyi Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, and Dongfang Shenghong [32][33]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xin Feng Ming is 12.16 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.41% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 0.94 billion yuan [1] - The stock price fluctuated between 12.06 yuan and 12.22 yuan during the day, with a volatility of 1.32% [1] - Xin Feng Ming operates in the chemical fiber industry, focusing on the research and production of polyester fibers and polyester filaments [1] Group 2 - The company is actively expanding its business into emerging fields such as bio-based materials, aligning with the industry's overall shift towards new materials [1] - In the context of industry-wide upgrades, many chemical fiber companies are investing and merging to enhance their supply chains, with Xin Feng Ming participating in this trend [1] - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds into Xin Feng Ming was 1.7861 million yuan, while the cumulative net outflow over the past five trading days was 20.4032 million yuan [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cash operating expenses for Q1 fiscal 2026 were $2,600,000, a reduction of $2,200,000 or 46% compared to the same quarter last year [15] - Cash used in operating activities for the quarter was $3,100,000, including working capital outflows of $800,000 [15] - The company ended the quarter with available liquidity of $12,300,000 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing discussions with leading global apparel brands and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands for textile-to-textile recycling solutions [6][7] - European beverage brands are seeking high-quality recycled PET due to declining quality from mechanical recycling [8][9] - The company confirmed a $176,000,000 CapEx for the Indian facility, with a total install cost of $95,000,000 for Loop's technology, the lowest in the industry [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Indian facility is positioned to provide high-quality PET made from 100% recycled content at competitive prices due to India's low-cost structure [9][10] - The company is focusing on site selection in Gujarat, India, with two locations narrowed down [11][35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive significant shareholder value through the rollout of manufacturing facilities and generating revenue from licensing, engineering, and modularization [18] - Modularization is expected to reduce CapEx by 50%, allowing for more projects to be built at competitive prices [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in securing customer contracts and financing for the Indian facility, with a focus on long-term agreements [22][30] - The company is optimistic about the future, citing strong relationships with customers and the potential for additional facilities in India [68] Other Important Information - The company is working with KPMG to syndicate debt financing for the Indian facility [32][70] - The total equity contribution required for the India facility is $25,000,000, with a funding gap of approximately $15,000,000 [60][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on your offtake agreements and their timing? - Management is advancing discussions with customers and expects to secure contracts, although the process may take longer due to internal steps within customer organizations [22][23] Question: What is the structure of the contracts with customers? - The company is offering fixed-price contracts to customers, which provides predictability and stability in pricing [30] Question: What are the next steps for financing and construction? - The company is focused on securing customer contracts and finalizing land selection in India, with a goal to break ground by the end of the year [36][61] Question: What is the capital intensity of Loop's facilities? - The CapEx per pound for Loop's technology is 61¢, excluding certain costs, and is expected to decrease further as facilities scale [40][44] Question: How does the company plan to handle permitting and utilities for the new sites? - The sites are in industrial zones with permitting included in the land acquisition, and the company will provide necessary utilities for the facilities [77][81]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **chemical industry**, focusing on the **polyester supply chain**, **ethylene glycol**, **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)**, and **PX (Paraxylene)** markets, along with insights into **polypropylene** and **PVC** markets. Key Insights and Arguments Polyester Supply Chain - The polyester supply chain prices are influenced by multiple factors including costs, policies, and geopolitical issues. In April, prices dropped significantly due to cost declines, while in May, prices rebounded with tariff policy changes and oil price increases. In June, Middle Eastern conflicts led to rapid oil price increases, affecting upstream aromatic prices like PX and PTA, which subsequently raised downstream product prices significantly [1][3]. - Ethylene glycol's performance in the first half of 2025 was weak, primarily due to stable supply from coal-based production amid disrupted demand, leading to a relatively soft price trend [4]. - The price spread between PX and Brent crude oil was at a near five-year low in 2025, although it recovered slightly after tariff cancellations. Overall, PX valuations remain low due to weakened gasoline cracking margins and reduced demand for toluene and xylene [5]. PX and PTA Market Dynamics - The US demand for aromatics showed a decline in April and May, particularly in toluene and benzene imports from South Korea, leading to a seasonal demand drop in Asia [6]. - Polyester fiber operating rates decreased at the beginning of the year, but remained high during seasonal declines in PX and PTA operating rates, resulting in significant destocking effects in Q2 [7]. - PTA is expected to see increased production capacity in the second half of 2025, which may lead to inventory pressure, while PX has no new capacity planned for the year, relying on imports to maintain supply-demand balance [8]. Future Market Expectations - The PTA market is expected to face inventory accumulation due to increased production and weakened polyester demand, particularly from bottle-grade polyester [13]. - The PX market's performance is closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical stability. A potential easing of Middle Eastern tensions could lead to lower oil prices, impacting PX valuations negatively [9]. - The overall polyester industry is projected to see a decrease in operating rates by 3% to 4% in the second half of 2025, with significant reductions in bottle-grade polyester production anticipated [12]. Polypropylene and PVC Market Insights - The polypropylene market is currently in a bearish trend due to accelerated capacity expansion, weak demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Seasonal demand in the second half may provide some support, but supply pressures from new production remain a concern [2][23]. - The PVC market faces significant supply-demand pressures, with high levels of new capacity expected to come online, while domestic demand remains weak due to low construction activity [52][54]. Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic policies, as these factors significantly influence market dynamics and pricing strategies across the chemical industry [20][61]. - The need for cautious optimism regarding PX imports and the overall supply-demand balance was emphasized, particularly in light of potential production disruptions and the impact of external market conditions [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the chemical industry, particularly in the polyester, polypropylene, and PVC markets.