Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices showing fluctuations and an increase of approximately 1.42% as the demand season approaches [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Cotton futures main contract opened at 14,095.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 14,340.00 CNY and a low of 14,090.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The overall performance of the cotton market is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating positive market sentiment [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Zhongcai Futures notes that the demand season is approaching, with textile enterprises increasing their operating rates and a slight decrease in cotton yarn inventory, although overall inventory remains high [1] - Nanhua Futures indicates that the speed of depleting old cotton is relatively fast, with an increase in import quotas, but the actual quantity remains low, aligning with expectations [1] - Wukuang Futures highlights that despite general consumption in the downstream market being average, entering the "golden September and silver October" consumption peak, combined with historically low domestic cotton inventory, suggests a potential marginal improvement in the fundamentals [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the deterioration of the US employment market may delay the Fed's policy shift, and investors are betting on an early start of the Fed's cyclical interest rate cuts. Due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the destocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it is still at a high level. With high - yield new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,812 (-99) sheets, including 8,464 (-99) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - In July 2025, the China Garment E - commerce Prosperity Index was 49.62, down 0.72 from the previous month. The sub - indexes such as production and e - commerce also declined. The garment e - commerce industry entered the off - season in July, and the prosperity index decreased [3][4]. - On August 6, the average arrival price of 3128 lint cotton nationwide was 15,122 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the price of 32s pure - cotton yarn ring - spun was 21,615 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton; the spinning profit was - 1,019.2 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. Rising raw material cotton prices led to a decrease in the immediate spinning profit of textile enterprises [4]. - As of August 3, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average [4]. - As of the week ending August 2, Egypt's net cotton export contracts were 615 tons, a 56.4% increase from the previous week, all of which were Giza 94 cotton [4]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, spreads, textile profits, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [1][5][6][9][11][13]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. International cotton prices are in a weak consolidation state due to loose supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is destocking well but remains high. With potential high - yield new cotton and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the international market, as of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, showing an upward trend, while the boll-setting rate was 33%, with a slower growth progress. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation. In the domestic market, the sown area this year has increased year-on-year, and there is still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The recent increase in cotton prices has led to an increase in the sales of old cotton from the 2023/24 season and a slight decrease in the basis price of new cotton from the 2024/25 season. The supply side exerts short-term pressure on cotton prices. Although yarn prices have gradually followed the increase in cotton prices, the finished yarn inventory has not continued to accumulate due to the increased production restrictions of textile enterprises in inland areas. The cotton import volume in June remained at a low level, and the contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season still exists. In the short term, the main contract oscillates and adjusts, the positions shift to the far-month contracts, and the 9-1 spread converges [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The latest 328-grade cotton price index is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of different grades and regions of cotton vary, with the basis and fixed-price quotations showing different characteristics. The price of pure cotton yarn has increased, but the downstream demand is difficult to pick up significantly. Textile enterprises are still suffering large losses, and the operating rate has continued to decline due to high temperatures in inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth has few inquiries, and most transactions are small and urgent orders [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week, lower than 40% in the same period last year and in line with the five-year average. The growth progress is slow but the good-to-excellent rate is improving. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll-setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71%. As of July 18th, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, 9-1 spread, commercial and industrial cotton inventories, and the total number of warehouse receipts, among others [17][18][19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis for 4129/29B/3.5 impurity in Northern Xinjiang's machine-picked cotton in 2024/25 was mostly at CF09+1400 - 1500 and above, with a small amount below this price. The basis quotation for machine-picked Grade 31 double-29 cotton in Kashgar, Southern Xinjiang was mostly at CF09+1100 and above, and the low-price quotation was still at CF09+950 - 1100, but the quantity at low prices decreased significantly, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn changed little this week. Spinning mills mostly maintained last week's quotations, and actual transactions gradually followed up. Downstream procurement volume remained low, mainly for rigid demand. The market lacked confidence in the future market, and inland spinning mills continued to limit production. The market for all-cotton grey cloth has been continuously sluggish recently, with light shipments. Weaving factories produced spot goods, with low production and sales rates and accumulated finished product inventories. Currently, weaving factories have few orders, mainly small and scattered orders, and the current machine startup rate of weaving factories remains low [7] - As of July 13, in the international market, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The overall growth progress was slightly slower, but the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year this year, and the expectation of an overall bumper harvest still exists. The industrial downstream remained weak, with overall weak demand. The cotton yarn inventory of downstream spinning mills continued to rise, and inland spinning mills continued to reduce the startup rate, but the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained firm, with a small decline. In the short term, there were still concerns about the tight supply of old crops, but considering the current off-season consumption stage, tariff disturbances still existed, and the weather had not yet had an impact, so the upside space should be viewed with caution [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were 143.978 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [9] - As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 52% in the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, compared with 14% in the previous week, 26% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 22%; the budding rate was 61%, compared with 48% in the previous week, 62% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 62% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][26]