证券研究报告 持续看好库存优、拿地及产品力强房企， 现金流及分红稳定物企配置价值凸显 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月22日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：短期板块或维持震荡。本周板块表现先扬后抑，全周下跌1.69%，跑输沪深300（-0.45%），当前板块主要分歧在于：一方 面A股主流地产股价已接近2024年9月低点、4、5月楼市走弱叠加上周国常会表态，政策预期升温，中期已具备一定交易性机会；另一 方面，居民收入及房价预期偏弱背景下，市场对楼市企稳仍缺乏信心，同时5月"一揽子金融政策"公布后，对短期政策出台可能性及 潜在效果仍存分歧。 重申关注中线布局，看好库存结构优、拿地及产品力强房企。我们认为尽管楼市修复存在波折反复，但"核心区与好房子"率先止跌 回稳的趋势未变，建议关注库存结构较优（高点拿地少或主要聚焦核心地段、历史减值多等）、拿地能力及产品力强的房企，短期有 望受益"核心区+好房子"细分市场企稳，中期有望把握新一轮产品迭代周期带来的发展红利。 现金流及分红稳定的物企配置价值逐步凸显。物业管理轻资产、现金牛属性明显，尽管房地 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2][28] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. The adjustment period for the real estate market has been sufficient, and recent interest rate cuts have eased home-buying pressure. Core city supply is entering a "window period," which may support market stabilization [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities showing early signs of recovery [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase of 5.8%, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 9.4%. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in May was down 5.3% year-on-year but up 9.1% month-on-month [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months. The inventory in 16 cities was 91.32 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [13] - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, at the 95.64% percentile of the past five years [18] Policy Environment Monitoring - Multiple regions have introduced policies to stabilize the real estate market, including Shenzhen's guidelines for the allocation of affordable housing [4][6]

优质新盘已成为销售表现的重要影响因素。 作为楼市的非传统旺季，端午假期的楼市整体表现平平。58安居客研究院提供的数据显示，假期内，30 大中城市新建商品房成交面积合计26.6万平方米，同比有所下降。不过，一二线楼市总体表现良好，同 比去年端午，一线城市成交面积增长4.5%，二线城市成交面积增长3.3%。 事实上，不只是端午假期，整个5月，核心城市成交都保持着修复态势，各大开发商以折扣返佣、新规 产品等方式，多措并举吸引购房者，叠加各项楼市支持政策的快速落地，市场热度延续整月。机构数据 显示，5月，深圳楼市成交同环比上涨、广州新房成交面积创新高、上海迎来"红五月"…… 中指院指出，5月重点城市新房整体销售环比增长，核心城市"新规"项目开盘基本可以实现较好去化， 但郊区老项目及低能级城市项目仍普遍面临压力，是否有优质新盘入市已成为影响短期城市销售和房企 销售的重要因素。 富有韧性的上海市场则实现了"红五月"，月内有40个项目入市，供应环比增加49.2%，同比增加 30.2%。新增供应快速恢复，推动楼市成交放量，成交面积超60万平方米，同比增加23.7%。 其中有约9个楼盘实现"日光"，既有内环内的徐汇滨江绿城潮鸣 ...

证券研究报告 四月楼市平稳收官，关注高价项目去化表现 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年5月5日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 资料来源：中指院，克而瑞，Wind，平安证券研究所；注：除月度数据外，横轴日期代表单周起始日期，下同 4 市场运行监测 库存：环比持平，去化周期20.7个月 点评： 16城取证库存9164万平，环比持平，去化周期20.7个月。 16城商品房取证库存及去化月数 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 22.5.13 22.7.15 22.9.16 22.11.18 23.1.27 23.3.31 23.6.2 23.8.4 23.10.6 23.12.8 24.2.9 24.4.12 24.6.14 24.8.16 24.10.18 24.12.20 25.2.21 25.4.25 16城库存 去化月数（右） 万平 月 周度观点： 4月重点50城新房日均成交同比降27.3%，根据克而瑞数据，4月百强房企操盘金额同比降8.7%。近期土拍市场持续升温， 在 ...