一、新房整体走势：国庆出游短期分流购房需求，节后楼市望回暖 2025年1-8月份，全国新建商品房销售额同比下降7.3%，降幅比7月又增加了0.8个百分点，因此9月新房线上找房日度走势呈现波动式下降。 在国庆假期期间，全国跨区域人员流动量连续多日突破3亿人次，假期前五日累计约12.43亿人次，日均超3.1亿，创历史新高。广大民众出游的火热对新房 楼市热度带来一定的挤压分流，因此9月30日和10月1日，全国重点60城新房找房热度数据下滑到57.4、59.1。之后快速上升，尤其在10月7日和8日，假期 最后两天人们结束旅游和聚会后，转而关注新房市场的热度提升到77.6、79.9。假期8天热度日均值为69.8，环比前八天均值62.8上涨了11.2%。 从近三年的对比情况来看，2023、2024和2025年国庆期间，全国重点60城新房线上找房热度日均值分别为138.2、124.9、69.8，近两年的同比都有明显的 下降，尤其今年国庆期间的热度同比去年，下降了44.1%。 尽管下半年楼市政策密集出台（如核心城市限购松绑、公积金支持等），但国庆线上热度的同比大幅下滑，反映出购房者信心修复仍需时间，需求释放节 奏偏缓。这既体 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 27 日 [Table_Title] "金九"成色初显 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 本周（9 月 19 日-25 日）楼市延续温和修复态势，成交量维持在近期高位，二手房表现持续优于新房。二 手房市场韧性凸显，15 城成交面积在高位微降至 218 万平方米（过去四周介于 186-221 万平），环比小幅回落 1%，但已连续六周实现同比正增长。相较之下，新房市场虽在月末冲量效应推动下环比增长 7%，成交 256 万 平方米（过去四周介于 206-251 万平），但其过去 16 周内仅在上周录得同比上涨，回暖势头尚不牢固，修复基 础相对薄弱。 各线城市成交热度分化是本周最核心的特征，一线城市与其他城市间的"温差"正在拉大。在政策托举 下，一线城市，特别是京沪两地，市场韧性凸显。相比之下，三线城市二手房、二三线城市新房同比则重回收 缩区间，反映出本轮复苏主要由核心城市驱动，市场信心的全面传导仍存在阻力。 分市场看，二手房市场，一线稳增，三线转弱。一线城市周成交环比与上周基本持平，同比则增长 18%， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][29] Core Viewpoints - The short-term performance of the sector may remain volatile, with a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.45%. The current divergence in the market is attributed to the mainstream A-share real estate stocks nearing their September 2024 lows, combined with a weakening housing market in April and May, and rising policy expectations following recent government meetings. There is a potential trading opportunity in the mid-term despite the lack of confidence in market stabilization due to weak income and housing price expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on real estate companies with strong inventory structures, land acquisition capabilities, and product strength. It is believed that despite fluctuations in the housing market recovery, the trend of "core areas and good properties" stabilizing first remains unchanged. Companies with favorable inventory structures and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit from the stabilization of the segmented market [3] - The value of property management companies with stable cash flow and dividends is becoming increasingly prominent. Despite ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, mainstream property management companies are showing strong cash flow and profit performance. The projected net profit growth for five major property management companies in 2024 is 17.8%, with an average dividend yield of 3.8%, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 19,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.7%. However, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in June (up to the 20th) decreased by 31.1% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month [7] - The inventory of 16 cities slightly increased, with a depletion cycle of 18.5 months. As of June 20, the inventory was 91.66 million square meters, reflecting a 0.03% increase [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 38.43 times, which is at the 93.67 percentile of the past five years [20][22] - The issuance of real estate bonds this week was 5.59 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -3.77 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing [17] Policy Environment Monitoring - Xi'an has released measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, while Changsha has implemented detailed policies for housing provident fund loans for families with two or three children [5]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2][28] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. The adjustment period for the real estate market has been sufficient, and recent interest rate cuts have eased home-buying pressure. Core city supply is entering a "window period," which may support market stabilization [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities showing early signs of recovery [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase of 5.8%, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 9.4%. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in May was down 5.3% year-on-year but up 9.1% month-on-month [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months. The inventory in 16 cities was 91.32 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [13] - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, at the 95.64% percentile of the past five years [18] Policy Environment Monitoring - Multiple regions have introduced policies to stabilize the real estate market, including Shenzhen's guidelines for the allocation of affordable housing [4][6]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the real estate market during the Dragon Boat Festival was flat, with a total transaction area of 266,000 square meters in 30 major cities, showing a year-on-year decline [1] - First and second-tier cities performed well, with first-tier cities seeing a 4.5% increase and second-tier cities a 3.3% increase in transaction area compared to last year [1] - In May, core cities maintained a recovery trend, with various developers using discounts and new product launches to attract buyers, supported by rapid implementation of market support policies [1][2] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the new housing transaction area during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 4.61 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [2] - The overall transaction volume of new homes in Guangzhou reached 708,300 square meters in May, setting a record for the highest monthly volume this year [3] - The Shanghai market saw a significant increase in new supply, with 40 projects launched in May, leading to a transaction area exceeding 600,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [3][4] Group 3 - High-quality new projects have become a key factor influencing short-term sales in cities and among real estate companies, with many core area projects achieving over 80% sales rates [3][5] - The demand for "good houses" is rising, with projects that meet basic living needs and offer comfort becoming increasingly popular among buyers [6] - In Shenzhen, a new project achieved a sales rate of approximately 40% on its opening day, indicating strong market interest in well-priced and well-designed properties [6][8] Group 4 - The introduction of new product types, such as low-density houses and high-end improvement products, has shown better sales performance compared to ordinary properties [7] - In May, the average price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 0.90%, with Shanghai experiencing the largest increase at 1.47% due to the launch of improvement projects [9] - The market is expected to see increased promotional efforts and a faster pace of new project launches as the mid-year sales period approaches, which may support new home sales in core cities [9]

Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Real estate sector rated as "Outperform" [2][33] - Core viewpoint: In April, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 27.3% year-on-year, with a decline of 8.7% in the operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies [3][6] - The land auction market is heating up, and concerns about the gross profit margins and sales performance of quality real estate projects are rising. High-priced projects in cities like Shanghai are expected to enter the market in May, which may boost market confidence if they achieve high sales and profit margins [3][6] Group 2 - Market performance: The average daily transaction volume of new homes in April for 50 key cities was 0.5 million units, a decrease of 69.7% week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 20 key cities was 0.9 million units, down 59.3% week-on-week [3][6] - Inventory status: The inventory in 16 cities remained stable at 9,164 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 20.7 months [10][6] - Capital market monitoring: The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.04% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.93 times, placing it in the 96.96 percentile over the past five years [21][6] Group 3 - Individual stock recommendations: Focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Greentown China. Also, consider companies with valuation recovery potential like New Town Holdings and Vanke A [3][6] - Policy environment: Multiple regions have announced new housing policies, including increased housing provident fund loan limits [5][6] - Company performance: Poly Development reported a 9% increase in revenue to 54.272 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while other companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A saw declines in revenue [29][6]