2025 年 11 月，住建部的全国房屋普查数据让不少人惊讶 —— 全国居然有 6.6 亿栋房屋，光空置房就超 1.2 亿套，这些空房子能妥妥住下 3.6 亿人！以前总 听人说 "房子多"，现在才知道多到这种程度 一、先看数据：房子到底过剩到了什么程度？ 住建部的普查数据显示，截至 2025 年，全国城乡住房总量已经达到了 6 亿栋，其中城镇有 3.3 亿栋，农村有 2.7 亿栋。咱简单算笔账，要是按每栋楼平均住 5 个人来算，这些房子理论上能装下 30 亿人，要知道咱们国家实际人口才 14 亿，这房子的总量妥妥是够够的了，甚至可以说是严重过剩。 但有意思的是，总量过剩的同时，还存在着特别明显的 "冰火两重天"。一二线城市里，尤其是优质地段的改善型房源，那是抢都抢不到，刚需想上车也得 掏空 "六个钱包"；可到了三四线城市和县城，情况就反过来了，新建楼盘一栋栋立着，就是没人买，国家统计局数据显示，部分三四线城市的商品住宅去 化周期超过 30 个月，要知道行业里公认的合理周期才 18 个月，这就意味着这些地方的房子，光靠正常销售，得两年多才能清完库存。 还有个更直观的现象，就是空置率高得吓人。全国城镇住房空置率已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since the second half of 2021, affecting various cities, including major provincial capitals, leading to significant price declines and regret among former property owners who sold at high prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The downturn initially impacted third and fourth-tier cities, later spreading to major provincial capitals like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan, with some cities experiencing price drops back to three years ago [1]. - Even first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have seen a halt in price increases and slight declines [1]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Sellers - Many former property owners who sold at high prices have faced three main challenges: 1. Investment losses and wealth shrinkage due to poor performance in stock markets and other high-risk investments [2]. 2. Panic and indecision stemming from fears of a rebound in property prices, exacerbated by government policies aimed at stimulating the market [2][4]. 3. Financial pressure from friends and family seeking loans, leading to difficulties in recovering lent amounts [4]. Group 3: Recommendations for Former Property Owners - It is advised that former property owners who sold at high prices should be cautious with investments, prioritizing the preservation of capital by avoiding high-risk assets and considering safer options like bank deposits [6]. - A rational approach to purchasing property is recommended, urging sellers not to rush back into the market due to fears of price rebounds, as the overall market adjustment trend is expected to continue [8].

Group 1 - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with new home prices in 100 cities down by 23.7% compared to the peak in 2021, and 77% of cities seeing prices revert to levels before 2017 [1][2] - The sales volume of commercial housing in the first half of 2025 plummeted by 38.2%, marking the largest decline since the housing reform in 1998 [5] - The phenomenon of mortgage defaults is becoming increasingly common, with the number of foreclosed properties exceeding 2.85 million, a 47% increase from the previous year [6] Group 2 - The government is actively implementing policies to stabilize the housing market, including subsidies for families with newborns and increased loan limits for families with three children [7] - Mortgage rates have reached historical lows, with first-time home loan rates as low as 3.15% and public housing loan rates at 2.6%, reducing monthly payments significantly [7] - The focus for investors should shift towards maintaining cash flow and preparing for a prolonged market downturn, as the era of rapid price rebounds is over [8][10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the real estate market in China, highlighting the significant number of buildings and the implications for housing demand and investment opportunities [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Market Overview - There are approximately 6 billion buildings in China, with a population density of about 2.3 people per building, which is a rare phenomenon globally [2]. - The total number of buildings includes various types such as residential, commercial, and public structures, indicating a diverse real estate landscape [2]. - Despite the large number of buildings, there is a concentration in less populated areas, leading to tight housing conditions in first-tier cities [6]. Group 2: Future Trends - Economic predictions suggest that only 20% of cities, developers, and properties will be worth investing in, while the rest will primarily serve residential purposes [8]. - Population and price differentiation in cities is expected to continue, with cities like Tokyo and Seoul experiencing rising prices due to sustained population influx [8][10]. - In the short term, there will be downward pressure on housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to reduced new project developments and increased population outflow [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Different Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is advised to focus on personal needs and financial capabilities rather than market trends, prioritizing properties in core areas with better amenities [14]. - Investors are encouraged to change strategies, moving away from speculation and focusing on the rental market, as younger generations may prefer renting over buying [15]. - Home sellers should monitor policy changes and market conditions, considering renting out properties in prime locations instead of selling impulsively [16]. Group 4: Conclusion - The future of real estate is expected to shift towards a focus on residential attributes, moving away from speculative investments, and emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions based on personal needs and financial situations [18].