Group 1: Industry Overview - The steel industry in China is accelerating its green transformation, with significant developments in green steel production and technology [1][2][3] - The urgency for the steel industry's green transition is highlighted by its status as a major carbon emitter, with over 60% of global steel emissions originating from China [3][7] - The introduction of carbon trading in the national carbon market is pushing steel companies to participate in carbon reduction efforts [1][3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Hebei Province is leading the way in establishing a modern steel industry with the introduction of the first local standard for green low-carbon steel products [2] - Major companies like Baosteel and Hebei Iron and Steel are implementing innovative projects, such as hydrogen metallurgy and electric furnace technologies, to reduce carbon footprints [2][4] - The development of hydrogen metallurgy technology is crucial for achieving green steel production, with ongoing efforts to optimize hydrogen reduction processes [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The inventory of steel products has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics as companies adjust strategies to focus on green steel production [4] - The competitiveness of green steel products is increasing, with successful exports to the EU demonstrating the potential for large-scale application of green steel technologies [4][7] - The global steel market is facing increased pressure due to the upcoming EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, which could raise costs for Chinese steel exports [3][7] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite progress, the green steel industry faces challenges related to technology costs, infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks that need to be addressed for large-scale implementation [5][6] - The next five to ten years are seen as a critical window for the transformation of China's green steel industry, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in hydrogen metallurgy [7][8] - A unified national carbon accounting system and infrastructure for hydrogen transport are essential for supporting the growth of the green steel sector [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are in a downward cycle with a roughly 7-year cycle, currently from 2021 - 2025. In the short term, the downside space for rebar and hot-rolled coils is limited. In the medium term, the low point of rebar and hot-rolled coils in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half. The RB2510 contract is expected to have room for an upward movement after consolidating the bottom around 3100. The short-term range for the iron ore main contract 2601 is between 750 - 800 [4][7]. - Suggest trying to lay out long positions on the 2601 contract on dips in the medium term and setting stop-losses. Short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar on rallies for the 10 contract. Iron ore is suitable for short-term operations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Review - **Steel Price Trends**: Steel prices have a roughly 7-year cycle, currently in a downward phase from 2021 - 2025. In the first half of this year, steel prices fell continuously, hitting a new low in June. They rose significantly in July with a maximum increase of 16%, reaching a new high for the year, and then fell continuously in August [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel and Iron Ore Trends**: Stainless steel has been in a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore has a similar long - cycle to rebar and hot-rolled coils but with differences. It has been in a general downward trend since 2021, mainly in 2021, and has been in a wide - range oscillation between 555 - 955 from 2022 to now. Iron ore is more resistant to decline than rebar and hot-rolled coils. In the first half of the year, its lowest point was 671, not breaking last year's low of 641.5. It rose strongly in July, reaching a high of 835.5, and fluctuated between 760 - 805 in August. The main contract has been shifted to 2601 [12]. Part 2: Current Analysis - **Economic and Steel Price Relationship**: There is a high consistency between economic growth and steel prices when the investment contribution is relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 5.3%, and the growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, better than expected. Anti - involution may promote economic growth and boost steel prices [21]. - **Real Estate and Steel Consumption**: As the real estate industry adjusts, the steel consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of real estate steel consumption decreasing and that of manufacturing increasing. From January to July 2025, real estate indicators such as sales, investment, new construction, and construction area all showed negative growth, making the real estate industry a drag on steel consumption [24][27]. - **Infrastructure and Steel Consumption**: The scale of local government special bonds in 2025 reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a record high. Although the total infrastructure investment increased steadily in the first half of the year with a growth rate of 4.6%, the proportion of special bonds invested in traditional infrastructure may decline [30][33]. - **Manufacturing and Steel Consumption**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slightly declined. However, due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and trade - in of consumer goods, the steel demand in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, energy, and machinery is increasing. The production and sales of automobiles and excavators have increased significantly, driving steel consumption [36]. - **Home Appliance and Steel Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of most home appliances slowed down. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in the second quarter increased compared with the same period last year, but the production schedule in the third quarter decreased significantly [42]. - **Steel Export**: Although the growth rate of steel exports in 2025 has declined compared with the previous two years, the absolute volume is still higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies and the increase in anti - dumping duties from major export countries, steel exports are facing obstacles [45]. - **Steel Production**: From January to July 2025, the national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [46][59]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to July 2024, China's iron ore imports increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of August 29, the iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 137 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 318,000 tons. In July 2025, the domestic iron concentrate production was 23.119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [64][65]. - **Analysis Logic and Trading Opportunities**: The rebar market structure has changed from backwardation to contango, while the hot - rolled coil market remains in backwardation. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 10 contract. Also, consider shorting the ratio of rebar to iron ore in October and November [71][80][81].

Group 1: Core Insights - Hebei Steel Group has signed a large-scale hydrogen metallurgy green steel export order to the EU, setting a record for China's single export of green steel, achieving a 50% carbon reduction per ton of steel [1][2] - The steel industry is under increasing pressure to transition to greener practices, with the national carbon market expanding to include the steel sector, accelerating the industry's low-carbon transformation [1][3] Group 2: Industry Developments - China's steel industry is experiencing rapid green transformation, with companies like Jiuquan Steel Group and Baosteel launching significant projects aimed at increasing renewable energy usage and reducing carbon emissions [2][3] - By the end of this year, it is expected that 80% of steel production capacity will undergo ultra-low emission transformation, with over 300 billion yuan invested in such upgrades [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The inventory of key steel enterprises has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics as companies adjust strategies to focus on high-quality, green steel production [4][5] - The competitiveness of green steel products is increasing, with the successful export of hydrogen metallurgy green steel validating the potential for large-scale application of green steel production technologies [4][7] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The green steel technology is still in the industrialization phase, facing challenges such as high production costs and the need for infrastructure adaptation [5][6] - The next five to ten years are critical for the transformation of China's green steel industry, with significant breakthroughs expected in hydrogen metallurgy and the establishment of a comprehensive green steel standard system [7][8]