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贵金属日报-20251216
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 11:16
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals declined. After the Fed meeting, the easing trade continued. Gold neared its all - time high, and if it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue. Platinum and palladium reached new highs since listing, with the overseas market breaking through the previous high and accelerating the upward trend. Against the backdrop of strong gold and silver, relatively undervalued platinum is favored by long - position funds. With the booming development of commercial space and the potential for platinum use in the hydrogen energy sector, and strong rigid constraints on the supply side, the long - term allocation rhythm of platinum is clear. Tonight, focus on the release of US November non - farm payrolls data [1] Other Key Information - Fed Chair candidate game intensifies. Hassett faces opposition from top - level officials around Trump due to concerns about being too close to Trump. New York Fed President Williams believes that employment slowdown and inflation risk mitigation support a December rate cut, but it's hard to judge the next meeting; Boston Fed President Collins supports a December rate cut due to changes in inflation prospects; Fed Governor Milan thinks the underlying inflation is close to the target and the Fed's policy stance is too tight [2] - The US delegation in Berlin insists that Ukraine hand over the Donbass region, and Ukraine will get security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. Zelensky says the negotiations are fruitful, but the US and Ukraine have different stances on territory. Trump says it's closer than ever to reaching a "peace agreement" [2] - US media reports that the White House privately scolds Netanyahu for violating the cease - fire agreement [2] - Japanese media reports that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years [2]
降息预期带动偏多情绪 钯期货中长线多配节奏明确
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-16 06:04
Group 1 - The palladium futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 410.40 CNY/g and reaching a high of 432.05 CNY/g, reflecting an increase of approximately 4.58% [1] - Analysts from Hualian Futures suggest that the demand for palladium is primarily driven by the automotive sector, but the surge in China's new energy vehicle penetration is suppressing demand growth, leading to limited fundamental support for palladium prices [2] - According to Ruida Futures, the palladium market is shifting from a supply-demand imbalance to a surplus, with expectations of a more relaxed supply-demand dynamic, although the anticipated interest rate cuts may provide some price support [2] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the relatively undervalued platinum and palladium are attracting bullish funds, with strong demand in commercial aerospace and hydrogen energy sectors, suggesting a clear long-term allocation strategy for platinum and palladium [3] - The market is closely monitoring the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November, which could impact market sentiment and pricing [3]
贵金属日报-20251215
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 13:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to strengthen. After the Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying, the easing trade is expected to continue. Attention is paid to this week's US November non - farm and CPI data [1] - Short - term silver hit a new high, and gold is approaching the October high. If the resistance is broken, precious metals may remain strong. Platinum and palladium hit new highs, and long - term allocation is clear [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Fed's Policy and Officials' Views - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, announced to buy $40 billion short - term bonds in the next 30 days. There were internal differences, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years [1] - Powell said the risk of employment decline increased, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The meeting was overall neutral, and restarting bond - buying was earlier than expected [1] - After the meeting, several officials still expressed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. Last week's employment data was mixed, with the number of job openings in October increasing to 7.67 million and the weekly initial jobless claims increasing by 44,000 to 236,000 [1] - Goolsbee: Wait for more data before cutting rates, and expect more rate cuts in 2026 than the median; Schmid: Inflation is still too high, and a moderately restrictive monetary policy should be maintained; Paulson: More concerned about employment risks, and the monetary policy is restrictive; Harker: Tend to adopt a slightly more restrictive policy stance [2] Market Performance of Precious Metals - Short - term silver continued to hit a new high, showing strong financial attributes and tight spot supply under the enhanced expectation of Fed's rate cut. Gold rose to near the October high [1] - Platinum and palladium prices hit new highs on Monday, with the outer market breaking through the previous high and accelerating. They follow the bull market of precious metals, are favored by long - term funds, and have macro premium and potential demand from the commercial space and hydrogen sectors [1] Other News - Trump prefers to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the next Fed chairman [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed to give up joining NATO during a five - hour talk in Berlin. The US envoy said the talks made "significant progress" but did not disclose details [2]