大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107_原文 发言人 00:00 各位新年好，今天是 1 月 7 号，欢迎来到摩根士丹利每周三的周期论剑在线直播，我是新娣儿堂。唐荣为 基础材料行业分析师，今天我们讨论的主题是房地产 2026 年展望和行业更新。交运行业观点更新以及上 汽集团的业务协同有望助推复苏脚步。在我们开始今天的讨论前，我还需要做一个 disco。请注意，本会议 里面项目更是丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问。本会议不对媒体开放，如果您来自媒体，敬请退出本次会议 另外在会议过程中，您可以随时在屏幕左方发送您的问题，不需要等到最后，这样我们可以节约 TMA 等待 的时间。我们现在把时间交给我们房地产行业分析师。 发言人 00:53 好的，谢谢 CP 各位投资人，新年好。对于房地产市场，我们认为 2026 年整体的这个房地产的市场依然是 维持一个下行的趋势。但是从整体的这个跌幅上来看的话，我们认为可能会跟 24 和 25 年相比会有所放缓。 我们的这个观点，主要的这个逻辑是基于对于房地产政策端，我们认为整体的这个政策的语调，可能会跟 2025 年比较相像，也就是说止跌回稳的这个语调不变。但是从具体的这个 ...

共探新营销，共创新可能 设计 | 甄 尤美 撰文 | 张 南 编辑 | 黄大 路 经过7个工作日集团内部任前公示，今天（2025年12月31日），中国一汽正式宣布董修惠升任一汽-大众总经理。 与此同时，一汽－大众党委副书记、工会主席聂强接任董修惠先前担任的一汽丰田副总经理，一汽丰田销售公司党委书记、总经理职务。 《汽车商业评论》了解到，此前一天，中国一汽在长春召开党委常委会，对集团部分管理层进行工作分工调整。 中国一汽党委常委、副总经理吴碧磊将不再兼任中国一汽研发总院党委书记、院长，他将分管工程技术和供应链两大板块。 与此同时，两位中国一汽总经理助理的分工也有了调整。 中国一汽总经理助理、红旗品牌运营委员会副总裁蒋文虎将出任中国一汽研发总院党委书记、院长，同时继续分管产品规划。 第二个重要看点，蒋文虎在分管产品规划的基础上掌舵研发总院。这对于红旗品牌下一代产品来说，这是一个重大利好。 第三个重要看点，董修惠接棒陈彬出任一汽-大众第九任总经理。这是此次人事调整外界最为关注的部分。 陈彬2024年底出任一汽-大众总经理，属于一汽-大众历史上第二位"高位低配"总经理，第一位是陆林奎。两人都是受命于合资企业危难之际。 ...

行业向有序竞争回归 2025年以来，汽车行业在规模扩张与盈利承压间持续博弈。数据显示，2025年前11个月国内汽车销量 2478.3万辆，新能源渗透率突破50.3%，但行业利润率仅4.5%，较2017年的7.8%大幅下滑。据中国证券 报记者不完全统计，截至2025年9月，超260款车型官方降价，平均降幅达11.2%。在此背景下，行业如 何规范价格竞争、实现全球化进阶、通过技术突破重塑资本价值，成为汽车行业共同关注的焦点。 "完全靠市场很难解决竞争的过度和无序的问题，长期发展下去就是资源的浪费，实现不了资源优化配 置的目的。"在中国电动汽车百人会论坛（2026）媒体沟通会上，车百会理事长张永伟针对《汽车行业 价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》的回应，直指当前汽车行业转型的核心矛盾。 区域布局上，车百会方面指出，2025年前10个月，东盟、中东需求持续释放，墨西哥成为中国汽车出口 第一大市场。 中国证券报记者了解到，2026年，中国车企海外规划产能达300万辆，实际投产年产能超200万辆。在探 索多元化出海路径上，部分车企尝试通过租赁海外闲置工厂、代工生产实现轻资产扩张，甚至有车企采 取"外国品牌+中国零部件"的模 ...

2025年以来，汽车行业在规模扩张与盈利承压间持续博弈。数据显示，2025年前11个月国内汽车销量 2478.3万辆，新能源渗透率突破50.3%，但行业利润率仅4.5%，较2017年的7.8%大幅下滑。据中国证券 报记者不完全统计，截至2025年9月，超260款车型官方降价，平均降幅达11.2%。在此背景下，行业如 何规范价格竞争、实现全球化进阶、通过技术突破重塑资本价值，成为汽车行业共同关注的焦点。 区域布局上，车百会方面指出，2025年前10个月，东盟、中东需求持续释放，墨西哥成为中国汽车出口 第一大市场。 "完全靠市场很难解决竞争的过度和无序的问题，长期发展下去就是资源的浪费，实现不了资源优化配 置的目的。"在中国电动汽车百人会论坛（2026）媒体沟通会上，车百会理事长张永伟针对《汽车行业 价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》的回应，直指当前汽车行业转型的核心矛盾。 行业向有序竞争回归 "不要替代消费者做选择，那就做过了；不要替代企业做决策定价，那也做过了。"张永伟在回应政策边 界时明确表示，《指南》的核心是引导行业回归价值本质，而非限制竞争。 从行业现状看，价格竞争已对产业生态造成显著冲击。数据显示，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is undergoing a significant shift from a focus on "traffic-driven" marketing to a more pragmatic and rational approach, as evidenced by the subdued atmosphere at the 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show [3][4]. Group 1: Marketing Trends - The previous two years were characterized by a surge in "celebrity executive" marketing, with high-profile executives engaging in live broadcasts and social media promotions [4]. - Companies like Huawei and Xiaomi have been at the forefront of this trend, leveraging their founders' presence to attract attention at auto shows [5]. - The current auto show saw a decline in such marketing tactics, with a focus on showcasing core vehicle technologies and features instead [8]. Group 2: Industry Competition - The decline in hype around "star companies" has led many automakers to return to fundamental vehicle manufacturing principles and focus on core consumer needs [8]. - The latest data shows that in October, retail sales of domestic brands reached 1.55 million units, a 4% increase year-on-year, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a 10% decline to 510,000 units [9]. - The competition is intensifying as joint venture brands accelerate their efforts to address gaps in electrification and intelligence, leading to a more competitive landscape [9]. Group 3: Sales Strategies - Sales strategies at the auto show have adapted to the competitive environment, with sales consultants actively engaging potential customers through incentives and promotions [9][10]. - The pressure on sales performance has increased, with sales targets becoming more challenging to meet compared to previous years [9]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards maintaining lower price levels while focusing on the "value ratio" that consumers receive for their spending [10].

2025.11. 20 本文字数：2673，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 德国举步维艰的汽车行业再迎风雨。 今年三季度末，整车制造商在机动车及发动机生产领域雇用44.68万人，同比减少3.8%。在汽车供 应行业中，从事车身、上装及拖车制造的供应商就业人数下降4.0%。汽车零部件及配件领域的降幅 更为显著，同期减少11.1%。 20日，德国联邦统计局发布最新数据显示，德国工业近期遭遇了显著的就业岗位流失，其中汽车行 业受冲击尤为严重。由于数万个工作岗位被裁撤，德国汽车行业就业人数已降至十多年来的最低水 平。 具体而言，截至2025年第三季度末，骑车业就业人数较上年同期减少逾48700人，降幅达6.3%，在 员工规模超过20万人的主要工业部门中居首位。 值得注意的是， 在汽车产业内部，供应商受裁员冲击远大于整车制造商。 柏林自由大学现代中国学院客座研究员、中国欧洲学会经济研究分会理事史世伟教授长期在欧洲追踪 德国工业发展和政策。他对第一财经记者表示，德国汽车业在全球各地发展不同，在美国市场面临关 税和销售下降，在中国市场面临电动车的强力竞争，目前也在"卷价格"和试图在生产上流程创新，不 过在欧洲 ...

德国汽车行业就业人数已降至十多年来的最低水平。 德国举步维艰的汽车行业再迎风雨。 20日，德国联邦统计局发布最新数据显示，德国工业近期遭遇了显著的就业岗位流失，其中汽车行业受 冲击尤为严重。由于数万个工作岗位被裁撤，德国汽车行业就业人数已降至十多年来的最低水平。 具体而言，截至2025年第三季度末，骑车业就业人数较上年同期减少逾48700人，降幅达6.3%，在员工 规模超过20万人的主要工业部门中居首位。 值得注意的是， 在汽车产业内部，供应商受裁员冲击远大于整车制造商。 柏林自由大学现代中国学院客座研究员、中国欧洲学会经济研究分会理事史世伟教授长期在欧洲追踪德 国工业发展和政策。他对第一财经记者表示，德国汽车业在全球各地发展不同，在美国市场面临关税和 销售下降，在中国市场面临电动车的强力竞争，目前也在"卷价格"和试图在生产上流程创新，不过在欧 洲市场上德国汽车在关税等因素的影响下，仍有相对优势。 供应商裁员幅度远超整车制造商 德国联邦统计局数据显示，德国汽车业从业人数降至72.14万人，创历史新低。此前的低点为2011年第 二季度末（71.8万人）。尽管如此，汽车工业仍是机械工程之后的德国第二大就业部门。 ...

Core Insights - The event surrounding the unveiling of the IRON humanoid robot by XPeng Motors has transcended technical debates, evolving into a broader discussion about trust, technology, and the future of the automotive industry [1][5] - XPeng's efforts to validate the IRON robot reflect a significant shift in the automotive sector, moving from traditional competition focused on hardware to a comprehensive transformation towards building future transportation ecosystems [1][4] Industry Transformation - The automotive market has shifted from hardware-centric competition, exemplified by brands like Volkswagen and Toyota, to a landscape where electric and intelligent vehicles dominate, allowing new entrants to redefine competition [2][3] - XPeng's product matrix, including the X9 range-extended vehicle and the IRON robot, showcases a cross-disciplinary approach that integrates AI and sensor technologies, indicating a move towards a holistic mobility service provider model [2][3] Technological Integration - The underlying logic of automotive companies venturing into robotics is based on decades of technological accumulation in areas such as intelligent control and multi-sensor integration, which align with the core needs of humanoid robots [3] - XPeng's commitment to full-stack self-research, from AI chip design to material development for the IRON robot, exemplifies a high level of control and innovation, enabling precise coordination of the robot's movements [3] Competitive Landscape - The trend of multi-dimensional strategies in the automotive industry is not unique to XPeng; other companies like Hyundai and Chery are also integrating robotics into their operations, indicating a collective industry shift [4] - The future competitiveness of automotive companies will hinge on their ability to create a complete ecosystem that combines hardware, software, and service scenarios, moving beyond mere vehicle sales [4][5] Conclusion - The process of validating the IRON robot serves as a metaphor for the automotive industry's broader transformation, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptability in the face of skepticism [5]

Core Viewpoint - Mercedes-Benz is undergoing significant restructuring, including a large-scale layoff plan aimed at optimizing capacity, supply chain, and personnel, with a focus on voluntary departures and cost savings [3][4]. Group 1: Layoff Plan - Mercedes-Benz is implementing its largest layoff plan in history, with approximately 4,000 employees already accepting severance packages [3]. - The severance compensation is designed with a gradient structure based on job level and years of service, with the highest compensation reaching "N+11" and senior management receiving up to €500,000 (approximately 4.1 million RMB) [3]. - The CEO, Ola Källenius, aims to encourage around 30,000 employees to voluntarily leave by 2027, targeting annual savings of approximately €5 billion through outsourcing, not filling vacant positions, and severance packages [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The automotive industry is experiencing performance fluctuations due to deep industry transformation, intensified market competition, and tariffs, leading to a "slimming down" trend among major automakers [4]. - In the first half of 2025, Mercedes-Benz's net profit is projected to decline by 55.8% [4]. - Other major automakers, including Volkswagen and Bosch, are also announcing significant layoffs and capacity reductions, with Volkswagen planning to cut over 35,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Dongfeng Motor Group has appointed Feng Changjun as the new General Manager, replacing the previous position that had been vacant for eight months, indicating a strategic shift in leadership to enhance capital market performance and operational management [2][3][4]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Feng Changjun, born in May 1978, has a strong background in finance and management, having served as the Chief Accountant and a member of the Party Committee at Dongfeng Motor since June 2020 [2]. - His appointment comes after the previous General Manager, Zhou Zhiping, was reassigned to another group, highlighting a need for new leadership in the company [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Strategy - Dongfeng Motor is currently restructuring its capital market strategy, with plans for its subsidiary, Lantu Motors, to go public in Hong Kong, while Dongfeng Group will complete its privatization and delisting [3]. - The company has faced challenges with low stock valuation, with a market capitalization of HKD 39.12 billion and a price-to-book ratio of only 0.25 as of July 31, 2025, indicating a need for financial restructuring [3]. Group 3: Performance and Future Outlook - Dongfeng Group reported a 14.7% decline in vehicle sales in the first half of the year, with a net profit drop of 91.96%, emphasizing the urgency for asset reallocation to improve market performance [3]. - Lantu Motors is viewed as a key asset for Dongfeng, with its upcoming IPO seen as a critical step to enhance the company's overall valuation and operational success [4].