1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 02 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 2,988 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 2,948 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.33%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The futures market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample asphalt production capacity utilization rate was 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 28.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%. The sample enterprise production was 50.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 82.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. It is expected that the supply pressure will increase next week [4]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [4]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 74.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - plant inventory was 58.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 02 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is high, with refineries reducing production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply may increase next week. The total planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74% [8]. - The demand is weak, with the current demand below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points [8]. - The cost support is weakening. The daily asphalt processing profit is - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The inventory shows a mixed trend. The social inventory is 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; the in - plant inventory is 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; the diluted asphalt inventory is 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [8]. - The market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term. The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3232 - 3276 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The supply pressure is high. Although refineries have reduced production this week, supply may increase next week. The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 shows a significant month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is sluggish, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt below the historical average, indicating that the overall demand recovery is weak [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost support is weakening due to the increase in asphalt processing losses and the decrease in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Inventory**: The social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing [8]. - **Market Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3232 and 3276 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 20 yuan to 3254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The social inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 4.38%. The in - plant inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 2.34% [15]. - **Analysis of Basis, Spread, and Price Ratios**: - **Basis**: On October 30, the Shandong spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 16 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of asphalt contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil prices, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratios, which can help investors understand the price relationships between different contracts and products [20][23][30]. - **Price Ratios**: The price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which are important for analyzing the relative value of different products [30]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt are analyzed, showing the profitability of asphalt production and its relationship with coking [36][39]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as the shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, price of Ma Rui crude oil, and production capacity utilization rate. For example, the weekly shipment volume of sample enterprises is 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73% [42]. - **Inventory**: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are decreasing, while the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: The export and import trends of asphalt are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [72]. - **Demand - side**: It includes the output of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, sales of asphalt - related machinery), and asphalt开工 rates. The overall demand is weak, with most asphalt开工 rates below the historical average [78][81][84]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the relationship between supply and demand in different months of 2024 - 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and output [103][104].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 沥青期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure remains high, and the demand - side recovery is weak. The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthening expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [8]. 3.1.2 Basis - On October 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 51 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a positive basis [8]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. Social inventory and factory inventory continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. 3.1.4 Disk - The MA20 line was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 line, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish signal [8]. 3.1.6 Expectation - Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand fails to meet expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and crude oil prices are strengthening. Cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview, including the values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as the 01 - 10 contracts, social inventory, weekly inventory, weekly output, etc. For example, the 01 contract value was 3299, with a previous value of 3277, an increase of 2, and an increase rate of 0.67% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are shown [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [30][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 to 2025 is shown [39][40][41]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [44][45]. - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [47][48]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown [57][58]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [59][60]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [69][70]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Situation - The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][77]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream asphalt products (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [93][94][96][97][98][99][100][101]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2510 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3438 - 3484 [8][10][15]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support for asphalt prices, but the demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The production of sample enterprises increased, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Other Factors**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 1343000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; the in - plant inventory was 711000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview, including the prices, changes, and inventory data of different asphalt contracts, as well as the profit data of asphalt coking and the number of registered warehouse receipts [17][18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [39][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss volume [45][47][50][54][57][60][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [65][69][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88][92][97][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply - side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production, increasing supply pressure, and this is expected to continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3,529 - 3,599 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The planned production in June 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of sample enterprises increased this week, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [8]. - **Cost - side**: The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - **Overall judgment**: Fundamentals are bearish, basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract in the 3,529 - 3,599 range [8][10][11]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various contracts, inventories,开工率, production, and profits [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts such as the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [25]. - Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, as well as the cracking spread of crude oil and the price - to - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [27][30][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Displays the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), price of Ma Rui crude oil and monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss [46][48][51]. - **Inventory analysis**: - Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory [66][70][73]. - **Import and export situation**: Analyzes the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - Analyzes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率 (by type and use), and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025 [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the waterproofing membrane开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The device maintenance volume is estimated to be 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On June 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 180 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the in - plant inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57%. The social inventory remains stable, and the in - plant and port inventories continue to be depleted [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side has increased pressure as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory and continuous restocking in factory inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [7][9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 29.2426%, a month - on - month increase of 0.419 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 488,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The estimated device maintenance volume is 727,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 28.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 8.6262%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 447.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 23.20%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 701.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [9] - **Base - spread**: On May 14, the Shandong spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, and the 07 - contract base - spread was 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1,395,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%; factory inventory is 839,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.42% [11] - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the 07 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net long position, and the long position increases [11] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - spread Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - spreads from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24] - **Spread Analysis - Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [28] - **Spread Analysis - Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31] - **Spread Analysis - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: Charts show the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40] - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44] - **Supply - side - Shipment Volume**: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46] - **Supply - side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - **Supply - side - Output**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [51] - **Supply - side - Venezuelan Crude Oil Price and Production Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of Venezuelan crude oil price and monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56] - **Supply - side - Refinery Asphalt Output**: A chart shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58] - **Supply - side - Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [60][61] - **Supply - side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: A chart shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [63][64] - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][69] - **Inventory - Social and Factory Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social and factory asphalt inventory from 2022 to 2025 [70][71] - **Inventory - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74] - **Import and Export - Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76][77] - **Import and Export - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of the import spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80][81] - **Demand - side - Petroleum Coke Output**: A chart shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - **Demand - side - Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85][86] - **Demand - side - Downstream Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Demand - side - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: Charts show the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [97][98][101] - **Demand - side - Downstream Capacity Utilization Status**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][104][106] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including output, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108][109]