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大越期货沥青期货早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2510 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3438 - 3484 [8][10][15]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support for asphalt prices, but the demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The production of sample enterprises increased, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Other Factors**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 1343000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; the in - plant inventory was 711000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview, including the prices, changes, and inventory data of different asphalt contracts, as well as the profit data of asphalt coking and the number of registered warehouse receipts [17][18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [39][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss volume [45][47][50][54][57][60][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [65][69][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88][92][97][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [108][109].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250815
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply - side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production, increasing supply pressure, and this is expected to continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3,529 - 3,599 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The planned production in June 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of sample enterprises increased this week, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [8]. - **Cost - side**: The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - **Overall judgment**: Fundamentals are bearish, basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract in the 3,529 - 3,599 range [8][10][11]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various contracts, inventories,开工率, production, and profits [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts such as the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [25]. - Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, as well as the cracking spread of crude oil and the price - to - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [27][30][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Displays the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), price of Ma Rui crude oil and monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss [46][48][51]. - **Inventory analysis**: - Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory [66][70][73]. - **Import and export situation**: Analyzes the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - Analyzes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率 (by type and use), and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025 [107][108].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:37
2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,根据隆众,2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨,环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.1788%,环比减少0.72个百分点,全国 样本企业出货28.83万吨,环比增加5.99%,样本企业产量为53.7万吨,环比减少2.18%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为74.1万吨,环比增加4.66%,本周炼厂有所减产,降低供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为30.4%,环比减少0.03个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%,环比持平,低于历史平均水平;改性沥青开 ...
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250515
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side has increased pressure as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory and continuous restocking in factory inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [7][9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 29.2426%, a month - on - month increase of 0.419 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 488,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The estimated device maintenance volume is 727,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 28.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 8.6262%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 447.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 23.20%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 701.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3494 - 3548 [9] - **Base - spread**: On May 14, the Shandong spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, and the 07 - contract base - spread was 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1,395,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%; factory inventory is 839,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.42% [11] - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the 07 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net long position, and the long position increases [11] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - spread Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - spreads from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24] - **Spread Analysis - Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [28] - **Spread Analysis - Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31] - **Spread Analysis - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: Charts show the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40] - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44] - **Supply - side - Shipment Volume**: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46] - **Supply - side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - **Supply - side - Output**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [51] - **Supply - side - Venezuelan Crude Oil Price and Production Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of Venezuelan crude oil price and monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56] - **Supply - side - Refinery Asphalt Output**: A chart shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58] - **Supply - side - Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [60][61] - **Supply - side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: A chart shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [63][64] - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][69] - **Inventory - Social and Factory Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social and factory asphalt inventory from 2022 to 2025 [70][71] - **Inventory - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74] - **Import and Export - Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76][77] - **Import and Export - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: A chart shows the historical trends of the import spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80][81] - **Demand - side - Petroleum Coke Output**: A chart shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - **Demand - side - Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85][86] - **Demand - side - Downstream Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Demand - side - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: Charts show the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [97][98][101] - **Demand - side - Downstream Capacity Utilization Status**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][104][106] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including output, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108][109]