Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. - For rubber, prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - For polypropylene, although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 4.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.07%, at 461.80 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, fuel oil, naphtha, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.73 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 3.97% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 30, in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.5, and in southern Shandong decreased by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 2101 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41. The 1 - 5 spread was - 6, at - 107 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 1660 yuan, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The report previously suggested buying opportunities in rubber, and prices rebounded as expected. There are different views on the market. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products increased [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 3 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, with a stable basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate increased, and the port inventory decreased. The weighted operating rate of three S decreased, but the PS operating rate increased, while the EPS and ABS operating rates decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene was 6802 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate decreased. The LL1 - 5 spread widened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene increased by 16 yuan to 6480 yuan, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased. The LL - PP spread narrowed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 72 yuan to 6852 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 5 dollars to 828 dollars. The basis was - 90 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was 24 yuan. The PX operating rate in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. The PTA operating rate decreased. PX imports from South Korea to China increased in October, and inventory increased at the end of September [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 40 yuan to 4704 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Social inventory increased in October [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 3953 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4003 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests maintaining a low-buy and high-sell range strategy for oil prices. However, current oil prices need to test OPEC's export price support willingness. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [16]. - Overall, in the second half of the year, the upside potential of oil prices is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a bottom - supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: During the October holiday, international oil prices maintained a weak oscillation as OPEC slightly increased production again, and domestic oil prices started to make up for the decline after the holiday. Overall, there were no major contradictions in geopolitics and Middle East supply, resulting in a weak oscillation pattern for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC held a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US refineries continued their seasonal decline. Affected by Russia in the short term, refined oil crack spreads were at high levels. Overall, supply and demand were in good condition, and oil prices fluctuated within the short - term value upper and lower limits [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, the US government shut down during the National Day holiday, and the release of CPI data was postponed. Politically, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC countries had not discussed increasing production quotas after November. The European Parliament sought to accelerate the phased - out of Russian oil and gas. In the US, it was ruled that the large - scale offshore drilling ban during the Biden administration was illegal [16]. - **Short - Term Impact Factors**: Factors such as US policy, geopolitics, macro factors, non - OPEC supply - demand, and OPEC supply - demand were analyzed, with most factors being rated as neutral, and the US policy being rated as bearish [17]. - **Medium - Term Impact Factors**: Global supply - demand from China, the US, and the Middle East, as well as macro - political factors including macro and geopolitical aspects, were analyzed. The overall outlook for the second half of the year is that the upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the oscillation center is expected to move down slightly [23]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators**: Analyzed indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread in relation to WTI oil prices [40]. - **Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators**: Analyzed indicators such as the eurozone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [43]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: Analyzed the Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) in relation to WTI oil prices [46]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyzed the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 month spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [51]. - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: Analyzed spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [54][55]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyzed the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB [61][65]. - **Crack Spreads**: Analyzed crack spreads in Singapore, Europe, and the US for gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [69][72][75]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: Recounted OPEC's production - related decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and increases [81]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Analyzed indicators such as the crude oil production and quotas of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quotas of OPEC+ 19 countries [83]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply**: Provided the supply volume (including dynamic forecasts) of OPEC 12 countries, including individual country production and export volume forecasts [90][94][97]. - **OPEC+ Major Member Supply**: Provided the export volume forecasts of major OPEC+ member countries such as Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [111]. - **Supply: US** - **US Policies**: The US Treasury Department imposed the most severe sanctions on Iran since 2018, and there were various policies and statements from the US government regarding oil - related issues [116][117]. - **US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs**: No specific content was provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production, the increase is at a very low level. OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. The report maintains a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices. However, current oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as a verification [16]. - In the medium - term, the report believes that the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: During the October holiday, international oil prices maintained a weak oscillation as OPEC slightly increased production again, and domestic oil prices started to make up for the decline after the holiday. Overall, there were no major contradictions in geopolitics and Middle - East supply, resulting in a weak oscillation pattern for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC held a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, with this round maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. U.S. refineries continued their seasonal decline. Affected by short - term factors in Russia, refined - oil crack spreads were at high levels. Overall, supply and demand were in a good state, and oil prices fluctuated within the short - cycle value upper and lower limits [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, the U.S. government shut down during the National Day holiday, and the release of CPI data was postponed. Politically, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC countries had not discussed increasing production quotas after November. The European Parliament sought to accelerate the phased - out of Russian oil and gas. In the United States, it was ruled that the large - scale offshore drilling ban during the Biden administration was illegal [16]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The report maintains a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices but suggests short - term waiting and seeing, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as a verification [16]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: The report shows the relationship between indicators such as the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the U.S. 10 - year inflation expectation, and the U.S. long - short - term spread and WTI oil prices [40]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: It includes the relationship between the euro - zone investment confidence index, the U.S. investment confidence index, the U.S. GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast and relevant economic and oil - consumption indicators [43]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The report presents the relationship between the Middle - East geopolitical risk index and WTI oil prices, as well as the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil from countries such as Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia [46]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: It shows the WTI crude - oil forward curve, the near - far structure of crude oil in various regions, the WTI crude - oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude - oil M1 price [51]. - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: It includes the price ratios of Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [54][55]. - **Product Spreads**: It shows the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil, and the price ratios of RB/HO and LGO/RB [61][65]. - **Crack Spreads**: It presents the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the United States [69][72][75]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC's Past Meeting Results**: OPEC has implemented a series of production - reduction and production - increase measures since 2023, including extending production cuts, canceling production cuts, and increasing production step - by - step [81]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: It shows the crude - oil production and quotas of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC's idle crude - oil production capacity, OPEC & OPEC+'s unplanned shutdown production capacity, and the crude - oil production and quotas of OPEC+ 19 countries [83]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecast)**: It presents the crude - oil production and export volume forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and other countries [91][94][97]. - **OPEC+ Major Member - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecast)**: It shows the crude - oil export volume forecasts of major OPEC+ member countries such as Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [112]. - **Supply: United States** - The U.S. Treasury Department announced the harshest sanctions on Iran since 2018. The funds for SPR were significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. The U.S. has made a series of announcements and statements regarding international relations, energy policies, and sanctions [116][117].