1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, with Venezuela's production increase in progress and Iran's situation in a state of low - intensity friction, there is a bottom for oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, the chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further production cuts in China [34]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.93% decline, at 446.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures of related refined oil closed down 43.00 yuan/ton (1.57%) at 2692.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.35%) at 3165.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels to 203.73 million barrels, a 1.01% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.60 million barrels to 93.96 million barrels, a 1.73% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 96.25 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.29 million barrels to 190.21 million barrels, a 1.22% increase [1]. - **Strategy View**: With the US energy minister's visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress. Iran's situation is in a state of low - intensity friction. There is a bottom for oil prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Jiangsu changed by 37 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Lunan, - 5 yuan/ton in Henan, 0 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 10 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The main futures contract changed by 25.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2304 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 35 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Henan, 20 yuan/ton in Hebei, 0 yuan/ton in Hubei, 0 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 0 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 0 yuan/ton in the Northeast. The overall basis was reported at - 50 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, closing at 1790 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector was oscillating. Butadiene rubber rose, while RU declined. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes in limited production increase in Southeast Asian rubber forests, seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes in uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of January 22, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.70%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week and 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.27%, 0.92 percentage points higher than last week and 5.34 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton (1.3%) increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: The chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 48 yuan to 4911 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 201 (+ 8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2475 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 603 (- 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous month; the calcium - carbide - based process was 80%, unchanged from the previous month; the ethylene - based process was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous month. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 million tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 million tons (+ 3.3) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5990 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the pure benzene basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7649 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan/ton decline; the basis was 251 yuan/ton, a 103 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 192.75 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 123.3 yuan/ton, an 11.6 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6899 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 4.51 million tons to 35.03 million tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 2.92 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [22]. - **Strategy View**: The futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6709 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6580 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 3.67 million tons to 43.1 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.08 million tons to 19.39 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 7.06 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 236 yuan to 7286 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 27 US dollars to 903 US dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (+ 20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 18). The PX operating load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous month. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted. Overseas, the South Korean GS plant restarted. The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 21.5 million tons of PX to China in the first half of January, a 6.8 - million - ton decline from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a 6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (- 1), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 US dollars (+ 12) [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 180 yuan to 5258 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 125 yuan to 5225 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan (- 14). The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee increased by 17 yuan to 455 yuan, and the on - market processing fee decreased by 25 yuan to 478 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 56 yuan to 3938 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 44 yuan to 3843 yuan. The basis was - 119 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 92 yuan (+ 5). The ethylene glycol operating load was 73%, a 1.4% decline from the previous month, of which the synthetic - gas - based process was 79.4%, a 0.8% decline; the ethylene - based process operating load was 69.5%, a 1.7% decline. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal text

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] - For rubber, with a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [14][15] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17][18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21][23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [25][26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [30][31] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.78%, to 445.50 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 148.00 yuan/ton, or 6.07%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.51%, to 3098.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased by 0.83 million barrels (13.46%), 0.45 million barrels (19.95%), 1.69 million barrels (19.27%), and 2.97 million barrels (17.28%) respectively [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by - 3 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, and - 2.5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract rose 23.00 yuan/ton to 2288 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 45 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was - 74 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 1814 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated strongly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the full - steel tire operating rate in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, up 3.1 tons (2.5%). Spot prices of some rubber products increased [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 126 (- 5) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [15] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5707 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene decreased by 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract rose 88 yuan/ton to 7116 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 138 yuan/ton. Supply - side upstream operating rate rose 0.22% to 70.92%, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. Demand - side three - S weighted operating rate rose 0.11% to 40.90% [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 54 yuan/ton to 6820 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6780 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 24 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate rose 0.04% to 83.39%. Production enterprise and trader inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.35% to 40.8%. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 1 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 45 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6505 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate fell 1.03% to 73.85%. Production enterprise inventory decreased, while trader and port inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.48% to 52.76%. The LL - PP spread widened by 9 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 20 yuan to 7262 yuan, and PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 897 dollars. The basis was - 12 (+ 6) yuan, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 32 (+ 6) yuan. China's PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3%, and Asia's was 81.2%, up 0.3%. Some overseas and domestic device conditions changed. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, up 0.7 tons year - on - year. Inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, down 5 tons month - on - month [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 24 yuan to 5116 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 15 yuan to 5075 yuan. The basis was - 70 (- 1) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 46 (- 6) yuan. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, down 2.5 tons. Spot processing fee rose 14 yuan to 319 yuan, and futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 352 yuan [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 52 yuan to 3867 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 3711 yuan. The basis was - 144 (- 3) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+ 6) yuan. The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas device conditions changed. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and East China departure on January 13 was 1.57 tons. Port inventory was 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons. Naphtha - based profit was - 967 yuan, domestic ethylene - based profit was - 848 yuan, and coal - based profit was 283 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]