Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to continue a slight increase in production in December but will pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, indicating a strong support for oil prices [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - The decision to pause production increases reflects OPEC+'s commitment to stabilize oil prices amidst market conditions [1] - The slight increase in production strategy aims to maintain market share while providing support for oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The reduction in supply pressure is contributing to a slight upward trend in oil prices [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that the oil market will continue to experience a strong and volatile trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is facing potential oversupply risks, yet benchmark oil prices have remained stable, contrary to predictions of a significant drop to the $40-50 per barrel range, due to a discrepancy between actual supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major economies are continuing to push energy sanctions, disrupting the export balance of some oil-producing countries, complicating the global supply-demand structure [1] - Despite expectations of weak demand, oil imports from major Asian economies have been increasing since spring, supporting prices even if some are for strategic reserves rather than direct refining [1][2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Data - Current floating oil storage levels are below the highs of 2022, and OECD country inventories are below the five-year average, indicating relatively healthy overall consumption [2] - A decline in fuel exports from Asia suggests that domestic demand remains strong, contradicting the narrative of demand peaking [2] Group 3: Market Predictions and Influences - Over-reliance on electric vehicle sales forecasts and GDP slowdown trends to predict oil prices does not fully capture market dynamics [2] - OPEC+ has limited capacity for production adjustments, and some U.S. shale oil companies are slowing their production growth due to low profit expectations, which restricts downward pressure on oil prices [2] - Geopolitical factors and resilient demand are expected to continue supporting oil price stability in the near term, making a rapid formation of a "bear market" unlikely without sudden shocks [2]

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the situation in the Middle East, and climate-related issues remains high [1] - If oil prices remain stable, it is expected that the inflation rate in July may slow down [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies are contributing to economic uncertainty [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is also a significant factor affecting economic stability [1] - Climate-related uncertainties are impacting economic forecasts [1] Inflation Outlook - A stable oil price environment could lead to a deceleration in inflation growth rates in July [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Russia anticipates that oil prices will stabilize around $60 per barrel as trade restrictions ease and demand recovers [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]