10月1日，全球原油市场正面临潜在的供应过剩风险，传统预测模型普遍认为这将导致油价大幅下跌， 特别是在经济增长乏力以及能源转型加快的背景下。然而，基准油价却在近几个月保持稳定，并未如部 分预测那样滑落至每桶 40-50 美元区间。NCE平台认为，这种稳定并非"谜团"，而是现实供需关系与市 场情绪之间存在明显差异的结果。 一些机构分析师表示，市场长期预期巨大的过剩供应，却未见油价快速下跌。例如麦格理能源策略师就 曾质疑，为何市场预期的47美元/桶并未出现。NCE平台认为，这背后至少有两个核心原因：一是主要 经济体持续推动能源制裁，扰动了部分产油国的出口平衡，使全球供需结构难以简单按模型推演；二是 部分市场需求并未如预期那样疲软。以储备行为为例，数据显示，自今年春季以来，亚洲主要经济体的 原油进口量持续增加，即便部分用于战略储备而非直接炼化，也在客观上支撑了价格。 此外，NCE平台表示，油价的稳定还与库存和实际消费数据密切相关。根据牛津能源研究院的统计，目 前浮动储油规模低于2022年的高点，经合组织国家库存量也处于五年均值以下，显示整体消费仍相对健 康。与此同时，亚洲地区燃料出口量下降，意味着国内需求保持一定强 ...

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the situation in the Middle East, and climate-related issues remains high [1] - If oil prices remain stable, it is expected that the inflation rate in July may slow down [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies are contributing to economic uncertainty [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is also a significant factor affecting economic stability [1] - Climate-related uncertainties are impacting economic forecasts [1] Inflation Outlook - A stable oil price environment could lead to a deceleration in inflation growth rates in July [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Russia anticipates that oil prices will stabilize around $60 per barrel as trade restrictions ease and demand recovers [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]