棕榈油具有明显的季节性属性，通常在 3 月至 10 月是东南亚棕榈油的增产周 期，而在 11 月至次年 2 月则是减产周期。今年（2026 年），马来西亚和印度 尼西亚的棕榈油产量均超预期增长。印度尼西亚在 6 至 8 月期间，单月产量超 过 500 万吨，而马来西亚则持续增产至 10 月和 11 月，12 月份环比减产约 4%。这种超预期增长导致前期供应充足，但需求启动较晚，马来西亚库存累积 至 12 月份达到 305 万吨，为历史同期最高水平。然而，印尼库存相对较低， 仅 200 多万吨，并预计到 1 月份出口将超过 330 万吨，使其库存可能降至 200 万吨以下。两国合计库存约 400 多万至 500 万吨，相对历史同期为中性 水平。 棕榈油需求情况如何？ 今年（2026 年），印尼已确定实施 B40 生物柴油计划，但 B50 计划大概率上 半年无法实行，因为道路测试需到 6 月份才结束。需求增量主要来自于抢占豆 油市场。去年（2025 年）美豆油价格便宜，大量出口，今年（2026 年）美豆 油价格竞争力下降，预计出口减少五六十万吨。同时，由于阿根廷去年实施零 关税政策，大量出口大豆及其制品，今年压榨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil origin inventory pressure and demand growth, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the unclear result of China - Canada talks, and the sufficient overall supply of domestic three major oils [1][2]. - Under the suppression of the weak domestic reality, the market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the oil market, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, short - term trading should be treated within a range. Palm oil may remain relatively strong in the sector [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm Oil**: In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory was 3.051 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase. The inventory is at a seven - year high, but it is expected to improve after the production reduction season. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term demand but with limited short - term benefits [1]. - **US Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain. It is expected that the final result will be announced in the first quarter of 2026, and the result is likely to continue the June proposal, which is beneficial to US soybean oil [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The result of China - Canada talks is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is good, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of canola oil will increase. Canadian Prime Minister is expected to visit China from January 14 - 17, 2026 [2]. - **Domestic Oil Supply**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined but the overall supply is still sufficient. Canola oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for palm oil to rise in the medium term [19]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat P05 and Y05 as single - side rebound trends within the range, pay attention to whether the upper pressure level can be broken. Observe the weakening trend of the canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads for arbitrage [19]. - **Strategy for Basis, Calendar Spread and Hedging Arbitrage**: The current basis should be viewed with a short - term weak oscillation idea. There is no calendar spread strategy for now. The canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads should be treated as weakening [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Oil Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, canola oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [23]. - **Oil Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory situations and concerns, including short - selling and long - buying soybean oil futures with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of palm oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of soybean oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as BOHO and domestic soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Canola Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of canola oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as the domestic soybean - canola spread [25]. - **Oil Calendar and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides price and price change data of calendar spreads and cross - variety spreads of the three major oils [25][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons. The price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10, 2026 increased by 17.65% compared with the same period last month [27]. - **Negative Information**: The US corn production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and the ending inventory will increase. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month. As of December 1, 2025, the US soybean inventory increased by 6% year - on - year, and the consumption decreased by 20% year - on - year [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable and weak, with relatively high soybean oil transactions, sporadic palm oil transactions, and no canola oil transactions for now [29]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - **Domestic High - Frequency Weekly Inventory Data** [37]. - **High - Frequency Production and Export Data of Malaysian Palm Oil** [37]. - **Origin Weather Information** [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Single - Side Trend**: The domestic oil market showed some differentiation this week. Soybean oil and palm oil rebounded within the range, while canola oil maintained an overall oscillation. The lack of trend - driving factors and the unclear US biodiesel policy limit the demand expansion of the global oil market. Attention should be paid to US bioenergy policy information and origin destocking progress [33]. - **Capital Movement**: The changes in the positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are relatively small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in palm oil and soybean oil, while canola oil reduced short positions. Foreign - funded seats reduced short positions and increased long positions in soybean oil and canola oil, and slightly reduced long positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil was relatively steep. The Y5 - 9 spread of soybean oil increased due to the single - side rebound of Y05. The OI5 - 9 spread of canola oil was mainly in consolidation [36]. - **Basis Structure**: The main basis of oils continued to grind at the bottom this week. The basis of soybean and palm oils remained weakly operating, while the basis of canola oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of expectations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, the main basis of canola oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Spread Structure**: Due to the lack of further information, cross - variety spreads oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production reduction season and starts destocking, the canola - palm spread is still expected to weaken [56]. - **Foreign Market** - **Foreign Market Trend**: The foreign market mainly rebounded this week. Palm oil sentiment turned optimistic due to Malaysia's entry into the production reduction season, better - than - expected export boost, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [59]. - **Capital Position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has declined from a high level, and the bullish sentiment has cooled down. Commercial positions such as producers and traders have a relatively high net short position ratio, which limits the further upward space of prices [61]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread decreased slightly this week, but the cost of palm oil - based biofuel remains high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a recent low level due to sufficient global soybean supply [67]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which limits long - term ship purchases [69]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export improvement is expected to promote the destocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in January 2026, and exports are optimistically boosted. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [71]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production reduction stage, and the willingness to destock and sell is limited. The import profit in China is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low. Wait for the rebound after the origin's inventory pressure eases [73]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, it is the seasonal low point of soybean arrival, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Pay attention to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [73]. - **Canola Oil**: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited, and inventory continues to be destocked. The global rapeseed harvest is good, the cost price is weak, and the import of Russian canola oil increases. If China - Canada relations improve, domestic canola oil supply will further increase [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Short - term inventory of the three major oils is still relatively high year - on - year, and downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak. The market is expected to turn dull after the festival [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic油脂 market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver lies in the overseas market. The market will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, waiting for the impact of US energy policies, Malaysia's inventory reduction progress, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, the short - term trading should be treated within a range. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in 2026 is earlier, the pressure on palm oil producing areas will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We should wait to see if it can start an upward trend after inventory reduction [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions in the油脂 market mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down inventory reduction. Indonesia's B50 plan has no new news and is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which supports long - term palm oil demand but has limited short - term benefits [1] - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain, providing limited support to the market [1] - The result of the China - Canada negotiation is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1] - The overall supply of the three major domestic油脂 remains sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of inventory reduction with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in detail in the report 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term range - bound oscillation, and there is still upward space for palm oil in the medium term. The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8800], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [18] - Technical analysis: Unilateral trading oscillates within the range. For arbitrage, we can observe the weakening trend of the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The current basis should be treated with a short - term weak - oscillation mindset. There is no month - spread strategy for now. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be treated as weakening [18] - A series of historical strategy recommendations are listed, including stop - loss exits, profit - taking exits, and waiting for appropriate opportunities [18] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: The latest prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8342 yuan/ton, 8488 yuan/ton, and 8376 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of 1.42%, 1.12%, and 1.02%. The price of BMD palm oil main contract is 4000 ringgit/ton, down 0.35% [20] - Soybean oil: The latest prices of soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8140 yuan/ton, 7912 yuan/ton, and 7774 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.99%, 0.8%, and 0.56%. The price of CBOT soybean oil main contract is 49.85 cents/pound, up 1.07% [20] - Rapeseed oil: The latest prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 9736 yuan/ton, 9044 yuan/ton, and 9009 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is 613.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.8 [20] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic油脂 decreased slightly to 2110000 tons, with a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 250000 tons, and an increase of 190000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1089000 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.07%. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 239675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period last month [22][23] - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean export volume in 2025 reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase compared with 2024. Its soybean meal and corn export volumes also reached record levels. In December 2025, the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and the import volume of soybeans in January is expected to decrease, with the crushing volume expected to drop slightly to about 8 million tons. India's palm oil import volume in December decreased by 20% month - on - month to 507000 metric tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Due to the increase in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, India's total edible oil import volume increased by 19% month - on - month, reaching a three - month high of 1.37 million tons. The market generally expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 to continue to accumulate, with Reuters expecting 2.97 million tons (a 4.7% month - on - month increase) and Bloomberg expecting 2.99 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month increase) [24][27] - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent油脂 transactions are average, with relatively high soybean oil transactions and no transactions for rapeseed oil for now [25] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Not provided in detail in the report Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The油脂 market continued its wide - range volatile trend this week. Due to unresolved pressure in producing areas and unclear US biodiesel policies, the global油脂 market demand expansion is limited. We should pay attention to US bio - energy policy information and inventory reduction progress in producing areas [30] - Capital trends: The positions of key profitable seats for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious recently. Foreign investors have insufficient confidence in the油脂 sector. The net short positions of foreign investors and retail investors in palm oil have increased slightly, with prices continuously falling and positions decreasing significantly, but the trend degree has slightly turned positive, and volatility is low, indicating that the market may enter a consolidation stage. Soybean oil prices have stabilized recently after a continuous decline, with positions decreasing, a weak trend but a slowdown in the decline. Foreign investors have increased short positions, and retail investors have slightly increased long positions, and the market maintains a volatile consolidation. Rapeseed oil prices have stabilized at a low level after a continuous decline, with positions dropping to the lowest in two years, continuous capital outflows, and the basis approaching the spot price, indicating that the market may be approaching the bottom area [30] - Basis structure: The main - contract basis of油脂 continued to bottom - out and consolidate this week. Due to high domestic油脂 inventory and average downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [32] - Month - spread structure: The油脂 market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil has become shallower. Weak reality continues to suppress the disk. Due to the lack of information on Indonesia's B50, market sentiment is weak. High soybean oil supply still suppresses prices, and the supply tension of rapeseed oil has gradually improved [32] - Spread structure: Due to the lack of further information this week, cross - variety spreads mainly oscillated. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts inventory reduction, its support has improved. With the continuous supply of rapeseed oil, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is still expected to weaken [53] - **Overseas Market**: The overseas market oscillated this week. The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has not been relieved, and there is insufficient weather disturbance. Indonesia's B50 lacks new progress, and the quotes in producing areas continue to consolidate. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and US soybeans lack positive driving factors and oscillate weakly. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and US soybean oil continues to oscillate. The cost - effectiveness of international palm oil has not been reflected for now. There is no expectation of a relaxation in China - Canada relations, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed has eased some supply tension. Currently, the positions of CBOT soybean oil managed funds have decreased slightly, with a pessimistic sentiment and insufficient market confidence in a rise. The net positions of producers/ traders/ processors/ users have rebounded, and confidence has increased [56] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - and - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - This week, the POGO spread decreased slightly. Due to the lack of price support for palm oil, the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels has declined. The BOHO spread continued to weaken. Due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel has remained at the lowest level in recent years due to the sufficient global soybean supply [64] 4.2 Import - and - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the prices in producing areas have been consolidating at a low level. The import profit has changed slightly, but the profit range is not large. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the downstream acceptance is average, and the profit still remains negative [67] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. We should pay attention to the production changes in producing areas. Currently, La Niña climate has appeared in producing areas, but the rainfall is limited, and the impact on the main producing areas is temporarily small, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased month - on - month in December, but export boost was insufficient, and the inventory inflection point is difficult to appear for the time being. It is expected that the inventory inflection point may be seen as early as January [69] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. Producing areas have entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell goods during inventory reduction is limited. In addition, palm oil is easy to solidify in winter, and demand is weak. The import profit in China is inverted, and it is expected that the number of orders will be difficult to increase. We should wait for the rebound after the inventory pressure in producing areas is relieved [71] - Soybean oil: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans reaches the seasonal low point, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is relatively large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. We should pay attention to whether there will be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [71] - Rapeseed oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving successively, the quantity is limited, and inventory reduction will continue. However, the global rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the cost price is weak. Coupled with the increased import of Russian rapeseed oil, the supply gap is gradually disappearing. If China - Canada relations improve, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [71] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory of the three major油脂 is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for油脂, the market boost is limited after the festival stocking is over. Due to limited population growth and the diversification and health - orientation of residents' diet structures, the overall terminal demand for油脂 is still relatively weak and may continue to operate steadily and weakly [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market trending weakly. It awaits the final US energy policy in November and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see, and there may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes. Also, the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil are expected to widen [2][3]. - The oil and fat market shows short - term weak adjustment and medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October with limited export boost, increasing inventory pressure. Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain, affecting market sentiment, but the transfer of plantation ownership may limit production, and the B40 plan supports the price floor. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks is optimistic for soybean oil, while Sino - Canadian relations are uncertain, making rapeseed oil resistant to decline. Domestically, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient, with short - term pressure, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. - In the short - term, the domestic oil and fat inventory is high, and demand is weak. Downstream consumption is mainly for rigid needs, with limited expansion in the fourth - quarter peak season. In the long - term, the market will focus on the US biofuel obligation in November, the supply - demand balance of palm oil in producing areas, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [5][6][14]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current base - spread is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. For the month - spread, considering the Southeast Asian Ramadan and Indonesia's B50 plan in the first quarter of next year, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils are expected to widen [21][22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Traders with high oil and fat inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the price range forecasts and volatility data of the three oils [23][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of November 1 was 47.1% [30]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production at a seven - year high. India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [32]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, progress of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, US government information, and USDA data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market continued to weaken this week due to more negative information. Although the market is bearish, the downward space is limited. The positions of key profit - making seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis structure is weak, and the Back structure has become shallower. The soybean - palm spread strengthened, the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly, and the rapeseed - palm spread changed little [35][36][66]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weak first and then strong. The palm oil - producing areas had many negative factors, but Sino - US trade talks were optimistic for soybean oil, and Sino - Canadian relations made rapeseed oil relatively strong [69]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads decreased this week. The cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly, and the cost of US soybean oil for biodiesel production remained low [72]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price has decreased slightly, and the profit improved briefly but then weakened again [74]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in September did not decline as expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. However, there is a strong expectation of La Nina in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [76]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: The procurement intention of traders is low, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. Soybean oil: The supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the pressure may weaken from December. Rapeseed oil: The inventory is high, but it will gradually decrease. If Sino - Canadian relations do not improve, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats is expected to remain stable and weak [81].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].