Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is expected to appreciate against the US Dollar from 2025 to 2026, driven by strong economic fundamentals and external factors [1] Economic Forecast - The average exchange rate for USD to THB in 2025 is projected to be 32.9, with a range of 32.4 to 33.4, representing an appreciation of approximately 6.8% compared to the previous year [1] - For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to be around 31.8, with a range of 31.3 to 32.3, indicating a further appreciation of 3.2% from 2025 [1] Factors Influencing Baht Appreciation - The appreciation of the Baht is influenced by four main factors: 1. Continued weakening of the US Dollar providing external support for the Baht [1] 2. Persistent fiscal surplus and strong trade performance in Thailand, establishing a solid economic foundation [1] 3. Recovery of international investor confidence leading to sustained capital inflows into Thai bonds and stock markets [1] 4. Rising global gold prices providing additional support for the Baht [1] Short-term Uncertainties - Despite the positive outlook, there are several short-term uncertainties affecting the Baht's appreciation, including: - Temporary strengthening of the US Dollar [1] - Volatility in global capital flows [1] - Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [1] - Fluctuations in international oil and commodity prices [1] External Influences on Competitiveness - Global economic conditions, changes in the energy market, and fluctuations in major currencies will significantly impact Thailand's export competitiveness and the recovery of the foreign tourist market [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's export value is projected to grow by 5.7% year-on-year in 2025, with an expected growth rate of 5.8% in August 2025, aligning with forecasts [1][2] - Significant growth in exports of electronic products, particularly computers and integrated circuits, with a 12.8% year-on-year increase in exports to the United States in August [1] - Gold exports continue to rise, with over 50% of gold exported to Switzerland [1] - Agricultural exports have decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, notably due to a significant drop in rice exports, influenced by India's new rice export policies and the appreciation of the Thai baht [1] Export Performance - The total export value for the first eight months of the year increased by 13.3% year-on-year, but a significant reduction is expected for the remainder of the year due to anticipated impacts from U.S. tariff policies and a slowdown in electronic product exports to the U.S. [1] - Potential increases in import tariffs on semiconductor products by the U.S. could adversely affect Thailand's semiconductor and related electronic equipment exports, significantly impacting overall export performance [1] Currency Impact - From early 2025 to September 23, the Thai baht appreciated by approximately 7%, affecting exporters more than the reduction in order volumes, as export goods are typically priced in U.S. dollars [2] - Exporters relying on domestic raw materials, such as rubber, plastics, and food industries, are more adversely affected by the baht's appreciation compared to other sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Thai Baht is expected to lead to a 17% decrease in tourism revenue for Thailand, as stated by the Director of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, Tapernee [1] Group 1: Currency Impact - From January 1 to September 19, the Thai Baht appreciated approximately 8% against the US dollar, changing from about 34 THB per USD to around 31.6 THB per USD [1] - The appreciation of the Baht increases travel costs for foreign tourists, affecting expenses such as airfare, accommodation, and dining [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The currency trends of competing tourist destinations are contrasting; for instance, the Japanese Yen depreciated by 6.22% and the Vietnamese Dong by 3.38% [1] - The stronger Baht reduces Thailand's attractiveness compared to other regional countries, leading to a projected loss in tourism revenue [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Budget-conscious foreign tourists may reduce spending or choose to travel to cheaper destinations, while some affluent Thai citizens may opt for outbound tourism, further impacting domestic tourism revenue [1]

8月初，两名马来西亚游客在曼谷市中心被当街纵火烧伤，引起了国际社会的广泛关注。从电诈到绑 架，中国游客在泰遭遇的新闻屡屡冲击舆论。近期，泰国与柬埔寨的边界争端持续不断，也影响泰国作 为安全友好目的地的国际形象。 对于像泰国这样严重依赖出口的经济体来说，旅游业实现复苏对经济稳定至关重要。泰国新任总理阿努 廷将应对泰铢过快升值列为护航出口与旅游的紧急任务之一。多家媒体称政府与央行将协调应对，避免 旺季前"价格过高"打击来客。 泰国正积极向海外游客派发各类优惠券，这些优惠券可在酒店、商店和餐厅使用，旨在鼓励消费。此 外，泰国还将推出针对淡季的重点活动与特别优惠，丰富旅游产品吸引游客。 【环球时报驻泰国特派记者 张矜若】泰国旅游与体育部16日发布报告称，今年1月1日至9月14日，入境 泰国的外国游客2300万人，较去年同期下降7.08%。泰国国家发展规划署也早早"认输"，在8月就将今年 外国游客到访人数预测从3700万人次下调至3300万人次，远低于2019年创下的4000万人次纪录。 旅游行业媒体报道称，导致该现象出现的最重要因素是泰国国内旅游成本的上涨。疫情过后，酒店、餐 饮和交通服务价格上涨，令许多游客质疑泰国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid appreciation of the Thai Baht raises concerns among the Thai Chamber of Commerce, as the exchange rate has reached 31.70 Baht/USD, the highest level in nearly four years, which contradicts the actual economic situation in Thailand [1] Impact on Key Sectors - **Export Sector**: The appreciation of the Baht leads to increased prices for Thai products, resulting in decreased competitiveness and reduced foreign exchange income [2] - **Tourism Sector**: The rising costs of travel in Thailand make it less attractive to foreign tourists, negatively impacting the tourism industry [2] - **Agriculture Sector**: Farmers, particularly those reliant on exports like rice and cash crops, face income losses due to the strong Baht [2] Causes of Baht Appreciation - The appreciation is attributed to a weaker US dollar, driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising international gold prices leading to increased gold trading and capital inflows into the Baht. Additionally, some capital inflows are from investment and cryptocurrency markets [3] Recommendations - The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Private Sector Committee recommend that the Bank of Thailand systematically manage the exchange rate, particularly by separately listing gold inflows and outflows for accurate assessment. They urge the government and the central bank to take urgent measures to maintain the Baht at a level that reflects the true economic conditions, in order to avoid undermining the competitiveness of Thai businesses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Thai gold traders oppose the government's discussion on taxing physical gold and online transactions, arguing that such measures to curb the appreciation of the Thai baht could jeopardize the country's status as a gold trading hub [1] Group 1: Government Actions and Economic Impact - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance held a meeting with over ten gold traders to discuss alleviating the pressure that gold trading puts on the Thai baht [1] - Gold exports have contributed to the recent appreciation of the Thai baht, which reached its highest exchange rate against the US dollar in four years, with an increase of over 7% this year [1] - Authorities are urging members of the Greater Bangkok Area (GTA) to closely monitor gold transactions in Thai baht to control currency risks and illegal activities [1] Group 2: Gold Export Data - Data shows that Thailand's gold export value increased by 69% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 254 billion Thai baht (approximately 8 billion USD) [1] - There has been an unusual increase in gold exports to Cambodia, prompting calls for an investigation [1] Group 3: Taxation Considerations - A finance ministry source indicated that the department is considering taxing physical gold transactions to curb the appreciation of the Thai baht [1] - However, the source acknowledged that such taxation may not significantly weaken the baht's exchange rate, as the primary pressure on the baht comes from the depreciation of the US dollar [1]

泰国旅游与体育部认为，外国游客数量下降跟周边国家同泰国旅游业竞争不无关系，例如越南旅游业的 兴起分流了一部分外国游客。另一方面也与泰铢升值、有关泰国旅游安全问题的舆论、酒店价格上涨等 因素有关。(完) 赴泰外国游客数量同比下降7.08% 中新社曼谷9月16日电(记者 李映民)泰国旅游与体育部16日发布报告称，今年1月1日至9月14日，来泰国 的外国游客数量较去年同期下降7.08%。 报告指出，今年第一季度来泰外国游客人数约2300万人次，其中马来西亚为最大客源市场，达328万人 次；其次是中国，达323万人次。 今年8月，泰国国家规划机构将今年外国游客到访人数预测从3700万人次下调至3300万人次。在新冠疫 情爆发前的2019年，游客人数曾创下近4000万人次的纪录。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 ...

泰国政府正考虑对实物黄金交易征税，旨在遏制本国货币的快速升值，以保护受其冲击的出口和旅游 业。 据彭博社15日援引知情人士消息报道，泰国央行和财政部正在讨论对通过各种线上渠道买卖并以泰铢结 算的黄金征税。该消息人士补充称，此类征税可能豁免了以美元交易、在期货交易所交易或在金银店购 买的黄金。 通过征税，泰国政府希望减少黄金出口，并提高泰国人持有黄金的成本。知情人士补充说，与黄金运输 相关的美元流入，是推动泰铢走强的原因之一。 消息传出后，泰铢兑美元汇率应声下跌，跌幅一度达0.6%至31.92，创下自7月31日以来的最大单日跌 幅。 强劲的黄金出口收益助推泰铢上周升至2021年以来的高点。今年以来，泰铢已累计升值7%，这使得要 求该国央行采取更强有力干预措施以保护出口和旅游业的呼声日益高涨。 税收细节仍在讨论，或豁免部分交易 新税收的实施细节仍在讨论中。报道称，泰国央行和财政部将举行更多会谈，但最终决定将在新内阁上 任后才会做出。该税项可能会作为一种"特别营业税"来引入。 风险提示及免责条款 知情人士表示，只要黄金销售商将美元收益兑换成泰铢，该交易就可能会被征税。不过，任何税收的具 体税率尚未最终确定。 泰国央 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据外媒报道，泰国当局正考虑对实物黄金交易征税。此时正值泰铢走强对出口和旅游业造成威胁，且泰 国对邻国柬埔寨的黄金出口出现异常激增，多方呼吁展开调查。 据知情人士透露，泰国央行和财政部正在讨论对通过各种线上渠道、以泰铢结算的黄金买卖征税的方 式。任何此类税收可能会豁免以美元计价的黄金交易、期货交易，或从金店购买的黄金。 知情人士称，当局希望通过征税减少黄金出口，并提高泰国人持有黄金的成本。他们补充说，与黄金出 口挂钩的美元流入是推动泰铢升值的因素之一。 据知情人士透露，央行官员计划于周一与黄金交易公司代表会面，讨论黄金对泰铢的影响以及如何加强 交易申报。财政部也将与央行继续磋商，最终决定将在新内阁上任后作出。该税可能作为特别营业税推 出。 他们补充说，如果黄金卖家将美元收入兑换为泰铢，交易也可能会被征税，但具体税率尚未确定。 今年前七个月，泰国黄金出口同比激增69%，达到2540亿泰铢（80亿美元），其中对柬埔寨出口的异常 增长引发了调查呼声。 2025年前七个月，泰国对柬埔寨的黄金出口同比增长19%，达到713亿泰铢（约合22.5亿美元），有望 超过去 ...

而泰国黄金交易商YLG 表示，按照目前的趋势看，泰国金价将继续上涨，2025 年可能达到 57,000 泰 铢。全球金价预计将在每金衡盎司 3,750 美元处遭遇阻力。统计数据显示，泰国是全球十大黄金买家之 一，在亚洲排名第四。 泰国工业院主席张学善就泰铢当前的强势表现提出了担忧，虽然柬泰边境冲突导致两国贸易出现萎缩， 但令人担心的是泰国向柬埔寨出口的黄金价值高达21.49亿美元，折合泰铢约为680亿。这就是2025年1- 7月的数据。 自2025年上半年以来，泰铢已累计升值超过7%，在区域内位居第二，仅次于台湾。如放任这一问题持 续下去势必将对出口造成影响。对此，工业院准备派出代表与央行和政府有关部门展开讨论并研究对 策。 泰国还是全球唯一一个自2021年至2024年新冠疫情爆发以来，黄金消费需求连续四年增长的国家。众所 周知，柬埔寨的诈骗问题严重，而向柬埔寨出口黄金的金额达数百亿泰铢，这可能会让泰国陷入不必要 的舆论漩涡中。 ...