事件：墨西哥拟对中国1463 种产品加征关税2025 年12 月10 日，墨西哥众议院批准了关税法案草案。该 法案旨在修改《进口与出口一般税法》，对来自无自由贸易协定（TLC）的国家（如中国、印度、越 南、泰国、韩国等）的进口产品征收额外关税，以保护本土产业。 法案对1463 个产品分类进行了关税调整，税率从原来的0-20%，提升至10%-50%，覆盖包括纺织与服 装、钢铁及制品、汽车及零部件、塑料制品、家电家具、纸与纸板在内等约17 个行业。法案拟于2025 年12 月15 日完成立法程序，2026 年1 月1 日正式生效。 贸易壁垒凸显海外工厂稀缺性，份额加速集中墨西哥对非自贸国家加征进口关税，我们认为一方面将抬 高进口商品成本并引导本地化采购，另一方面，本地化供给与供应链出海加速的结构性趋势将更强。美 盈森深度服务于下游各领域的头部企业，客户优质而分散，公司海外客户主要为消费电子/家具家电 等，目前已在墨西哥、越南、泰国、马来西亚布局产能。根据投资者调研公开信息，公司海外工厂的原 材料采购以本地化或就近为主，并会在价格大幅波动时与客户协商价格调整；且海外扩产以厂房租赁 +国内设备调配为主，资本开支整体可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a significant expansion driven by strong downstream demand, with leading battery manufacturers actively securing supply contracts and investing in production capacity to meet future needs [1][2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Leading LFP manufacturers are currently operating at full capacity, with secondary manufacturers also increasing their operational rates [5]. - The market for LFP is characterized by a shift from price competition to a focus on value and technology, with a more rational approach to expansion [2][21]. - In September, CATL signed a prepayment agreement with Jiangxi Shenghua, committing to a supply of LFP with a minimum annual procurement of 80% of the promised capacity from 2025 to 2029 [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Investments and Partnerships - CATL has invested significantly in Jiangxi Shenghua, acquiring a 51% stake to secure LFP supply, indicating a strategic move to ensure access to high-density LFP products [6]. - Other companies, such as Fengyuan and Longpan Technology, have also secured long-term supply contracts, indicating robust demand across the industry [8][9]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The LFP industry is projected to see an average operating rate exceeding 70% next year, with a balanced supply-demand scenario anticipated [15]. - New projects are being initiated, such as Jiangxi Shenghua's plan to build a 350,000-ton capacity facility, reflecting a trend of strategic capacity expansion [16]. - The industry is witnessing a dual trend of expansion among leading firms while some smaller players are facing challenges, leading to potential market consolidation [19][20]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Competitive Landscape - The focus is shifting towards high-performance products, with companies investing in advanced technologies such as high-density and fast-charging LFP materials [21]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies emphasizing technological capabilities and cost efficiency as key differentiators in the market [21].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a new round of capacity expansion driven by strong downstream demand, with a focus on high-end products and overseas markets, transitioning from price and scale competition to value and technology competition [1][10]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Leading LFP manufacturers are currently operating at full capacity, with second and third-tier manufacturers also increasing their utilization rates [2]. - There is a notable shift in manufacturer attitudes, with some companies beginning to selectively choose customers and testing price increases for smaller clients [2]. - In September, CATL signed a prepayment agreement with Jiangxi Shenghua, committing to pay 1.5 billion yuan to secure LFP supply, with a minimum annual procurement of 80% of Shenghua's promised capacity from 2025 to 2029 [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion Plans - Jiangxi Shenghua plans to invest 4 billion yuan to build a new LFP project with an annual capacity of 350,000 tons [9]. - Longpan Technology announced a fundraising plan of up to 2 billion yuan for multiple LFP projects, including an 110,000-ton project in Shandong and an 85,000-ton project in Hubei [9]. - The overall industry operating rate has exceeded 60% this year, with expectations of over 70% next year, indicating a balanced effective capacity by next year and potential shortages in the following year [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Industry Trends - The LFP industry is witnessing a dual scenario of expansion and contraction, with leading companies experiencing full orders while smaller firms face potential exit or upgrade challenges [12]. - The industry is shifting towards high-quality competition, focusing on technology, market presence, and cost efficiency rather than low-price competition [12]. - Technological advancements are being prioritized, with a focus on high-pressure density, fast charging, and long cycle life products [13]. Group 4: Global Market and Integration Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with the ability to quickly release effective capacity abroad becoming a competitive advantage [14]. - The LFP industry is currently in a marginal profit state, leading to a trend towards integrated operations, with companies like Hunan Youneng achieving full self-supply of LFP resources [14]. - The overall market for LFP batteries in China saw a significant increase, with a 62.7% year-on-year growth in installed capacity for the first three quarters of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a new round of capacity expansion driven by strong downstream demand, with a focus on high-end products and overseas markets, transitioning from price and scale competition to value and technology competition [1][9]. Industry Dynamics - Leading battery manufacturers are fully utilizing their LFP production capacity, with second and third-tier manufacturers also increasing their operating rates [2][11]. - The market demand for LFP is robust, leading to strategic partnerships and prepayment agreements, such as CATL's 1.5 billion yuan prepayment to Jiangxi Shenghua to secure LFP supply [2][3]. - The LFP industry is witnessing a dual trend of expansion and contraction, with leading companies experiencing full orders while smaller firms face potential exit or upgrade challenges [11]. Capacity Expansion - Companies like Fujian Precision and Longpan Technology are investing significantly in new LFP projects, with Jiangxi Shenghua planning a 350,000-ton capacity project and Longpan Technology raising funds for multiple projects [8][10]. - The overall operating rate in the LFP industry has exceeded 60% this year, with expectations of surpassing 70% next year, indicating a balanced capacity outlook [7][11]. Market Trends - The demand for LFP batteries is driven by the growth in both electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors, with LFP battery installation in China reaching 402.6 GWh in the first three quarters of 2023, a 62.7% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The global energy storage market is also expanding, with a projected 106.1% year-on-year growth in battery cell shipments in the first half of 2025 [4]. Technological Advancements - The industry is focusing on high-pressure, fast-charging, and long-cycle LFP products, with companies like Fujian Precision and Longpan Technology leading in high-performance product sales [12][13]. - The ability to quickly release effective capacity overseas is becoming a competitive advantage, as companies adapt to local supply chain needs and trade friction [13]. Investment Strategies - The capital expenditure plans of LFP manufacturers are primarily directed towards high-end products and overseas capacity expansion, with a trend towards integrated supply chains to enhance cost efficiency [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown a revenue of 1.306 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 3.8% to 157 million yuan [1] - The third quarter revenue was 418 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 16.98% year-on-year, with a net profit of 55 million yuan, down 2.2% [1] - The company is expected to see improved performance in the second half of 2025 due to stable growth from quality customers and the anticipated ramp-up of overseas production capacity [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 22.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 13.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for the period was 74 million yuan, showing a slight increase from the previous year [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 234 million, 283 million, and 335 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.5X, 22.8X, and 19.3X [3] Business Strategy - The company plans to enhance its brand portfolio by acquiring 100% equity of a brand called "Gao Ye Jia," which includes popular products in the pet food sector [2] - The brand "Xu Cui Hua" achieved significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the cat litter category on Tmall, indicating strong market presence [2] Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the industry, accounting for nearly 40% of the total export value of similar products in China [2] - The company is strategically expanding its production capacity in Cambodia, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has the capability for full delivery of its overseas production capacity, specifically regarding its Thailand factory's output of optical modules for export to the United States [1] Group 1 - The company was asked about potential tariffs on its optical modules exported from Thailand to the U.S., specifically a 19% tax and a possible additional 40% tariff on transshipment goods [1] - The company confirmed that its overseas production capacity is fully capable of delivery [1] - The inquiry included questions about the timeline for the Thailand factory to reach full production capacity and the annual output once fully operational, as well as the proportion of Thailand's production capacity in the company's total capacity [1]