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螺纹热卷日报-20251009
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:32
大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 65TE | 3128 | 31 | HC05-RB05 | 134 | 131 | 3 | | RB10 | 3020 | 2989 | 31 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 395 | -45 | | RB01 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | HC01-RB01 | 190 | 181 | 9 | | RB01-RB05 | -63 | -56 | -7 | RB10-RB01 | -76 | -83 | 7 | | RB05-RB10 | 139 | 139 | 0 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -119 | -113 | -7 | RB05/105 | 4.10 | 4.12 ...
黑色金属早报-20250930
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 07:16
大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 30 日 1.中共中央政治局召开会议,研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问 题。会议决定,二十届四中全会于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员:周涛 期货从业证号:F03134259 投资咨询证号:Z0021009 研究员:丁祖超 期货从业证号:F03105917 投资咨询证号:Z0018259 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号:F03113636 投资咨询证号:Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 2.国家发改委:会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具相关工作,新型政策性金融 工具规模共 5000 亿元,全部用于补充项目资本金。 现货价格:网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元(-10),北京地区 3160(-),上海地区热卷 3350 元(-10),天津地区热卷 3290 元(-)。 【逻辑分析】 上周五夜盘黑色板块继续下跌,29 日建筑钢材成交为 10.96 万吨。上周钢联数据公 布,五大材总体增产,但热轧有所减产;受供应压力影响,热卷表需有所走弱,但螺 纹需求 ...
黑色金属早报-20250924
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:49
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].
黑色金属早报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]
黑色建材日报:短期利好出尽,钢材维持震荡-20250717
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 03:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with an Upward Bias in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Medium to Long Term [7] Core Views - Steel: Short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the steel market will maintain a sideways trend. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals provide strong support, and the iron ore price will move up in a sideways manner. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal and coke market will move down in a sideways manner. The supply of coke is tight, and the demand from downstream steel enterprises remains resilient [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: As the temperature rises in July, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term, while the supply remains loose in the medium to long term [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and Spot: Steel futures declined slightly yesterday. The spot price was relatively firm, and the overall basis continued to widen. The spot transaction volume was 8740 tons. In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. The average cost of billet in Tangshan was 2775 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 175 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's data shows that the output of building materials increased, consumption decreased, and inventory increased; the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for steel still has resilience, and attention should be paid to basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and Spot: Iron ore futures prices trended slightly upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly replenished their stocks as needed. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1 million tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - delivery spot was 1.52 million tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption intensity of steel during the off - season and the changes in iron ore inventory [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke trended downwards yesterday. The inventory of imported coal at ports was tight, and traders continued to hold up prices. Attention should be paid to port customs clearance and supply recovery [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, on the one hand, the price of raw coal remains high, and after the price increase is implemented, the profit of coke enterprises will improve, but the production willingness is still relatively conservative, and the supply remains tight; on the other hand, the profit of downstream steel enterprises is good, and the plant inventory is running at a low level, so the demand remains resilient. For coking coal, the market trading atmosphere is relatively active, and the downstream demand is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the overall recovery is limited. Attention should be paid to the coal mine recovery progress and the molten iron output of downstream steel mills during the traditional off - season [5][6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and Spot: In the production areas, some coal mines stopped production due to water accumulation and safety inspections, and mine owners were more willing to raise prices, with some coal varieties rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed stage by stage. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and traders were optimistic about the peak - season market, so the market coal price increased steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Sideways - Coke: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal - No specific strategy information provided