热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面明显反弹，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3076元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨49元/ 吨，涨幅为1.62%，持仓减少4.58万手。现货市场部分商家开始营业，报价有所上涨，唐山地区迁安普 方坯价格上涨30元/吨至2910元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨20元/吨至3170元/吨。据了解华北部分 钢企已接到2026年全国重要会议期间临时自主减排通知，要求企业在3月4日一3月11日执行阶段性减排 管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专项 减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。另外，上海发布楼市"沪七条"，进一步调减楼市限购政策及优化住房 公积金政策。供需两端均有利好政策出台，在很大程度上提振了市场信心。预计短期螺纹盘面或将窄幅 调整运行。 铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于752.5元/吨，较前一个交易日 ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 31,423 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 1 CNY/ton, representing a 0.03% rise, and a reduction in open interest by 11,000 contracts [3][11] - The national construction material inventory increased by 5.2% to 3.1608 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.87% to 2.052 million tons [3][11] - As the Spring Festival approaches, construction projects are halting, leading to a noticeable decline in rebar demand, with expectations of continued narrow fluctuations in prices [3][11] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 784.5 CNY/ton, down by 10.5 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.3%, with a trading volume of 260,000 contracts [3][11] - Australian shipments increased to 18.374 million tons, up by 1.493 million tons, while Brazilian shipments slightly decreased to 5.568 million tons [3][11] - Iron and steel production rose by 0.09 million tons to 2.281 million tons, with port and steel mill inventories continuing to accumulate [3][11] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1,159.5 CNY/ton, with an increase of 2.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.22%, and a decrease in open interest by 8,590 contracts [4][13] - The price of main coking coal in Shanxi increased by 57 CNY to 1,483 CNY/ton, while other coal prices remained stable [4][13] - Demand for raw coal is cautious due to weakened purchasing sentiment among coking enterprises, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations [4][13] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1,719 CNY/ton, down by 3 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.17%, with a reduction in open interest by 1,308 contracts [5][14] - The spot price of metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port fell by 10 CNY to 1,460 CNY/ton [5][14] - The demand for coke may further weaken due to declining steel prices and increased maintenance by steel mills [5][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5,828 CNY/ton, down by 0.41%, with an increase in open interest by 11,028 contracts to 359,600 contracts [6][15] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5,570 to 5,780 CNY/ton, with slight increases in Jiangsu and Tianjin [6][15] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable with limited driving forces ahead of the holiday [6][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5,628 CNY/ton, down by 0.78%, with a decrease in open interest by 19,307 contracts to 196,600 contracts [7][16] - Prices across regions remained stable, ranging from 5,300 to 5,350 CNY/ton [7][16] - The production of silicon iron is at a five-year low, with factories focusing on fulfilling existing orders [7][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black sector showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2%. The furnace material end showed weakness. In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. - From the perspective of the black sector's own supply and demand, the support from raw materials is weakening, but the inventory pressure of coils is marginally reducing. The overall contradictions in the industry are relatively limited. The commodity index has risen to a key pressure level again, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough upwards in the later period. In the short term, the futures market may rebound supported by the overall bullish sentiment, but due to the general fundamental conditions, it may be difficult to have sustainability, and it is still judged to operate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Black Sector Futures Performance**: This week, the main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2% [2]. - **Steel Supply and Demand**: In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion [2]. - **External Drive**: The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. Steel Production Data - **Monthly Data (December 2025)**: The monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68,180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1,446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The monthly import of steel was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6,060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export of steel was 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [5]. - **Weekly Data (January 23, 2026)**: The weekly production of rebar was 1,995,500 tons, an increase of 92,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 1,855,200 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0%. The inventory was 4,521,000 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.44%. The weekly production of wire rod was 751,300 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 740,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 926,000 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 3,054,100 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 3,099,600 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%. The inventory was 3,577,800 tons, a decrease of 45,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The weekly production of cold - rolled coil was 884,300 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. The weekly consumption was 882,200 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%. The inventory was 1,587,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plate was 1,510,700 tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14%. The weekly consumption was 1,515,300 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.97%. The inventory was 1,959,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,195,900 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The total weekly consumption was 8,100,000 tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.87%. The total inventory was 12,570,000 tons, an increase of 1,007,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [6]. Steel Demand Data - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 10%. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land acquisition area of 100 cities was 19% [29]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement出库量 was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [32]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high level. The export profit of hot - rolled coil has rebounded slightly recently [38]. Steel Inventory and Spread Data - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited. The East China basis of rebar has risen to around 150, which is at a high level in the same period and may be difficult to strengthen further [3]. - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has strengthened slightly this week, and the absolute level is relatively high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coil, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow, but the convergence amplitude may be weaker than in previous years under the support of low inventory [51]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The hot - rolled coil basis is running around - 0 and has strengthened slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing supported by the decline in production, which supports the basis [59]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of rebar has been fluctuating in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier from a lunar calendar perspective. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to a relatively better supply of rebar, and the month - to - month spread is difficult to strengthen [66]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [71]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural products market shows a complex situation with different trends for each variety. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are likely to be weak or strong in different periods [5][6][10]. - For example, in the short - term, log prices are expected to be volatile and strong, while sugar prices are expected to be volatile and weak [22][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats will fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic policies are relatively loose. The US Department of Agriculture raised the global soybean production and inventory in 25/26. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased, and the market sentiment of rapeseed oil was affected by trade agreements and bio - diesel news. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider phased buying hedging after corrections and the strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and soybean meal is testing the lower support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds is decreasing. Domestically, the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact, but factors such as pre - holiday stocking support the price of soybean meal. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Snow disrupts logistics, and prices are still supported. - **Logic**: The supply is in a tight balance in the short - term. Snow disrupts logistics, and the supply is tight. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a positive impact on prices. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [10]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Snow boosts the spot price, but the futures market still has inventory pressure. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - month slaughter rhythm is slow, and snow drives up the price. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The macro - driving force weakens, and the market enters a wide - range fluctuation. - **Logic**: The rubber price is affected by the overall commodity adjustment. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is weak after the price rise. - **Outlook**: It will return to a wide - range fluctuation in the short - term and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It is in a corrective adjustment, and the market closes down. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is a lack of upward momentum, but the downside space is limited due to tight raw materials. The medium - term bullish logic remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is pressure in the short - term, and it will be volatile and strong in the medium - term [17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to adjust, and the cotton price closes down. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the cotton price is in an adjustment period after the previous rise. The new cotton is in the concentrated listing period, and the consumption is relatively good. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply in the domestic market is increasing. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, and the fundamental concerns increase. - **Logic**: The import cost is rising, but the demand is entering the off - season, and the liquidity of softwood pulp is abundant. The hardwood pulp price is showing signs of decline. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak in the short - term [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity is adjusting, and double - glued paper is running weakly. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment declines, and the futures market is under pressure from warehouse receipts. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak [20][21]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Affected by the black sector, logs fall below the valuation. - **Logic**: The futures price is affected by the black sector and falls into the low - valuation area. The fundamentals are improving marginally. The delivery pressure in some areas is weakening, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong in the short - term, and the 03 contract can be operated in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [22]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index shows different trends. The commodity 20 index increased by 0.20%, the industrial products index decreased by 0.28%, and the agricultural products index decreased by 0.74% on January 19, 2026 [182][184].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3158 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a reduction in open interest by 38,800 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices remained stable, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price at 2970 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price at 3250 CNY/ton, while national construction material transaction volume was 83,600 tons [3][12] - Recent bullish sentiment in the commodity market has positively impacted the undervalued rebar, with steel mills experiencing good order conditions and some securing winter storage resources early [3][12] - However, steel mill profitability has improved, leading to a continuous increase in rebar production, while demand is weakening as temperatures drop, resulting in a shift from inventory decline to increase [3][12] - The market is currently in a situation of valuation without driving forces, with short-term price expectations leaning towards narrow fluctuations [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 819.5 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 contracts and a slight reduction in open interest by 1,000 contracts [4][13] - Port prices for mainstream iron ore varieties showed slight declines, with 60.8% PB powder at 822 CNY, super special powder at 702 CNY, and 61.6% PB lump at 885 CNY [4][13] - On the supply side, shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while other countries saw slight increases, leading to a small overall decrease in global shipments [4][13] - Demand saw the addition of 11 blast furnaces undergoing maintenance and 11 blast furnaces resuming operations, with iron output increasing by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons [4][13] - Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories also increased, indicating a focus on replenishment demand in the short term [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1191 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton or 3.8%, with a decrease in open interest by 8,128 contracts [5][15] - In the spot market, prices for various coal types showed mixed movements, with some prices increasing slightly while others remained stable [5][15] - Supply-side issues due to underground problems in some coal mines have limited production, while others maintained normal production levels [5][15] - The recovery in iron output has led to increased demand for raw materials, with steel mills showing a low inventory of coal, thus expanding procurement needs [5][15] - Short-term expectations for coking coal prices are for continued fluctuations [5][15] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1745 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton or 1.41%, with a reduction in open interest by 1,031 contracts [6][16] - Spot prices for coke at ports showed a decline, with the price for first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1490 CNY/ton [6][16] - On the supply side, coking coal prices have stabilized, and online auction conditions have improved, leading to a slight recovery in market sentiment [6][16] - Demand has increased as most previously shut down blast furnaces have resumed operations, with some steel mills releasing replenishment demand [6][16] - The steel market is currently in a low season, with expectations for continued fluctuations in coke prices [6][16] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 5916 CNY/ton, down 0.37%, with an increase in open interest by 3,675 contracts to 261,000 contracts [7][17] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5650 to 5820 CNY/ton, with a 50 CNY increase in Inner Mongolia [7][17] - The overall black metal sector showed weak performance, leading to a downward shift in silicon manganese prices [7][17] - Demand during the steel bidding period provided some support, with a total of 17,000 tons bid for January, an increase of 2,300 tons [7][17] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises have decreased from high levels, but year-on-year increases remain significant [7][17] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 5682 CNY/ton, down 0.11%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,885 contracts to 220,800 contracts [8][18] - Prices across regions remained stable, ranging from 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton [8][18] - The overall black metal sector showed weak performance, leading to a slight downward shift in silicon iron prices [8][18] - Production levels for silicon iron have remained stable, with weekly output at the lowest level for the same period in five years [8][18] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises increased by 4,550 tons to 68,910 tons, with relatively high inventories in Inner Mongolia [8][18]

Group 1: Steel Market Overview - Rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week-on-week to 1.9104 million tons, but decreased by 83,700 tons year-on-year [3][16] - Social inventory of rebar rose by 75,200 tons week-on-week to 2.9018 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21,300 tons [3][16] - Factory inventory of rebar increased by 85,600 tons week-on-week to 1.4793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 223,900 tons [3][16] - Rebar demand fell by 25,480 tons week-on-week to 1.7496 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 150,900 tons [3][16] - Overall supply and demand data for rebar is weak, with inventory entering an accumulation phase [3][16] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - Hot rolled coil production increased by 10,000 tons week-on-week to 3.0551 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16,200 tons [4][17] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil rose by 21,700 tons week-on-week to 2.9081 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 580,600 tons [4][17] - Factory inventory of hot rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week-on-week to 773,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1,700 tons [4][17] - Demand for hot rolled coil fell by 24,300 tons week-on-week to 3.0834 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 72,500 tons [4][17] Group 3: Iron Ore Market - Iron water production increased by 20,700 tons week-on-week to 2.296 million tons [5][18] - Global iron ore shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, with Australia shipping 19.396 million tons, down 1.741 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port inventory of imported iron ore rose by 3.2265 million tons week-on-week to 170.4444 million tons [5][18] - Steel mill inventory of imported iron ore increased by 430,000 tons, mainly in North China, East China, and along the Yangtze River [5][18] Group 4: Coke Market - Coke prices in various regions decreased by 50-55 yuan/ton, while some prices increased by 30 yuan/ton [7][20] - Demand for coke remains weak, with rebar demand falling significantly [7][20] - Independent coke enterprises increased daily production by 850 tons, while steel mills' daily coke production increased by 50 tons [7][20] - Total coke inventory increased by 2,200 tons, with independent coke enterprises reducing inventory by 45,300 tons [7][20] Group 5: Scrap Steel Market - Scrap steel prices increased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 2,187.4 yuan/ton [9][22] - Daily average scrap steel arrival at steel mills decreased to 476,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,600 tons [10][23] - Scrap steel demand fell, with daily consumption decreasing to 505,000 tons [10][23] - Long-process steel mills' scrap steel inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 3.16 million tons [10][23] Group 6: Ferroalloy Market - Manganese silicon production decreased by 1.39% week-on-week to 191,000 tons [11][24] - Demand for manganese silicon remains limited, with major northern steel mills not actively purchasing [11][24] - Inventory levels remain high, with a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons to 382,500 tons [11][24] Group 7: Silicon Iron Market - Silicon iron production increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 99,100 tons, remaining at a five-year low [12][25] - Demand for silicon iron is limited, with consumption levels at historical lows [12][25] - Inventory increased by 4,550 tons week-on-week to 68,910 tons [12][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black metal industry. For each sub - sector: - Steel: Suggests a "wait - and - see" approach [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Recommends a "neutral" stance with a "wait - and - see" trading strategy [67] - Iron Ore: Holds a "neutral" view and advises "wait - and - see" [117] 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is currently in a state of complex dynamics. There are signs of recovery in some aspects such as iron ore and steel production, but also issues like high inventory and weak demand in other areas. The market is influenced by both macro factors (e.g., Venezuela's political conflict) and industry - specific factors (e.g., coal mine production and steel mill profitability). Overall, the market lacks a clear new driving force, and most sectors are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [7][67][117] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron ore production has stopped falling and slightly rebounded, with an increase of 0.85 to 227.43wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is stable compared to the previous week and lower than in 2023. After January, there may be some production resumptions, but the scale is not expected to be large. As the Spring Festival approaches, EAF operations will decline, balancing the total crude steel production [7] - **Demand**: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure shows weak supply and demand, but the negative pressure on furnace materials from the decline in steel production is weakening. From a market perception perspective, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, with light speculative demand and poor price - transaction sentiment. After January, state - owned palletizing funds may return to the market, which is relatively beneficial for the spot liquidity of the trading segment. In terms of varieties, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly improved, medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable, and the demand for building materials is weaker than the same period [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - sales ratios of rebar and wire rods are stable, hot - rolled coils have improved month - on - month, and medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable. The inventory of plates is being depleted slowly, and the high - inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils has not been eliminated [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly expanded. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 128, with a weekly increase of 6; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 0, with a weekly increase of 13 [7] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits have slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.1%, with a weekly change of + 0.87% [7] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7] - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The overall commodity atmosphere is good. During the New Year's Day holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated and the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, leading to an improvement in the risk appetite for RMB assets. The political conflict in Venezuela is a concern as it may cause short - term supply restrictions on resource products and impact prices [7] - **Investment View**: At the macro level, there are few new driving forces and news. It is necessary to focus on whether the Venezuela issue will expand and affect the supply of surrounding resource products. Recently, the performance of commodities has not been bad, and the exchange rate appreciation may bring advantages to RMB asset allocation. At the industrial level, the supply - demand of five major steel products is weak, but the negative pressure on furnace materials is weakening. The inventory - removal pressure of plates is prominent, and there is support at low prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and use a range - trading strategy for single - sided trading. After January, the market funds may be more abundant, which is beneficial for cash - and - carry positions. The cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Use a range - trading approach; Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150; Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply - demand of steel is weak. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products is 841.02 (+7.41), and the production is 815.18 (+18.36). The steel production has increased, but it is still in the off - season. The inventory is still decreasing, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and the iron ore production has stabilized and gradually rebounded [67] - **Coking Coal Supply**: After the New Year's Day, the short - term production suspension and reduction of domestic coal mines will end, and the production is expected to rebound rapidly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. The quotation of overseas coal continues to rise, and the internal - external price inversion persists [67] - **Coke Supply**: This week, the daily average coke production is 109.5 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4). The coking operation is stable, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, leading to a further contraction of coking profit [67] - **Inventory**: All links of coking coal and coke have accumulated inventory, indicating that downstream procurement is still relatively cautious [67] - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the cost of wet - quenched/dry - quenched warehouse receipts for the 05 contract is 1675/1700, and the cost of port trade quotations converted into warehouse receipts is 1700. The futures price has rebounded and is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1100, and the actual cost is lower considering the difficulty of handling for long - position holders [67] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.10% (+0.87%), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4) [67] - **Summary**: Before the holiday, the black metal sector is oscillating. Coking coal and coke are still weak. Although the article in Qiushi magazine has a positive impact on sentiment, the short - term funds are not optimistic about the black metal demand, and the overall market is still expected to oscillate. The market atmosphere has slightly improved, but the downstream is still mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The futures price of coke is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts, and it is possible to consider going long at the lower limit of the oscillation range [67] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [67] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume this period has decreased by 9.3 tons per day to 504 tons per day compared to the previous period. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia has decreased by 8.5 tons per day, that from Brazil has increased by 15.7 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has decreased by 16.2 tons per day to 84 tons per day. The arrival volume in China has increased by 23.2 tons per day, with a decrease of 12 tons per day from Australia, an increase of 34.1 tons per day from Brazil, and an increase of 1.2 tons per day from non - mainstream sources [117] - **Demand**: The iron ore production of steel mills has increased by 0.85 tons per day compared to the previous period. The profitability ratio of steel mills continues to fluctuate slightly, increasing by 0.87% to 38.1%. According to the maintenance plan, the iron ore production will slowly rebound in the future, and the iron ore demand will be in a recovery stage in January. The steel production has slightly increased this period. Rebar still maintains a low - production, low - apparent - demand, and slightly inventory - decreasing pattern, while hot - rolled coils continue to reduce inventory after the increase in apparent demand [117] - **Inventory**: The daily average ore - unloading volume of 47 ports has slightly decreased by 5.94 tons to 328.23 tons, which is still at a relatively high level. However, due to the large arrival pressure, the port inventory has increased by 114.06 tons, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [117] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [117] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [117] - **Summary**: On January 3, the US raided Venezuela. Although Venezuela has high iron ore reserves, its export volume is not high, accounting for about 0.3% of China's imported iron ore. Currently, it has not affected its iron ore export, but there is a possibility of price increase due to sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the high price. The iron ore production is stable, and there are signs of bottoming out. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has clear upward pressure. The overall market fluctuation is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [117] - **Investment View**: Neutral [117] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [117]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the strong side', and the reference view is 'oscillation thinking' [1] - In January, coking coal is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the market may focus on the resumption rhythm of upstream and downstream. Currently, coking coal lacks continuous upward drivers and its price may maintain low - level oscillation [5] - Downstream resumption of production and winter storage may support the coke price, and the decline of the main contract may face resistance, but whether it can rebound upward depends on demand improvement and new policy benefits [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Core Logic**: In the new year, coal mines that stopped or reduced production will resume, increasing coking coal output. With high imports, supply pressure remains. After the New Year's Day, downstream steel mills may resume production, driving up demand. Overall, in January, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, and the price may oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, coking coal prices were stable, and coking enterprise profits were not improved, so production enthusiasm was average. Downstream steel mills will gradually resume production in the new year. The speed and amplitude of the increase in hot metal output may affect the short - term trend of coke futures. Downstream resumption and winter storage may support the price, but upward rebound depends on demand and policies [6]