投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-05 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 | 01 | 02 | | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 焦煤焦炭 | | 商 品 氛 围 整 体 不 错 ， 观 察 黑 色 板 块 能 否 形 成 新 驱 动 | 第 四 轮 提 降 落 地 ， 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 | 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 情 绪 走 暖 ， 关 注 钢 材 价 格 表 现 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供需企稳，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3134元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨4元/ 吨，涨幅为0.13%，持仓增加3万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2950元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3240元/吨，全国建材成交量9.32万吨。据统计，2026年中天 钢铁1-1期华东地区建材计划量折扣为螺纹5折（上期5.5折），线材6折（上期6.5折），盘螺6折（上期 6.5折）。钢厂供应量有所下降，将在一定程度上缓解市场压力。目前螺纹市场矛盾不大，但驱动也不 强，市场情绪偏谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于789元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌7.5元/吨，跌 幅为0.9%，成交30万手，减仓1.6万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉802跌2，超特粉 685跌4。供应端，澳洲、巴西发运量同步增加，其他国家发运量小幅下降，全球发运量到达高位。需求 端，目前钢厂有高炉年检计划，上周铁水产量有所企稳，港口库存持续累库， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 昨天螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3125元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨41元/ 吨，涨幅为1.33%，持仓减少2.88万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨10元/ 吨至2950元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨40元/吨至3220元/吨，全国建材成交量10.22万吨。据我的 钢铁网数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升2.9万吨至181.68万吨，同比减少37.05万吨；社库环比回落25.7 万吨至313万吨，同比增加30.26万吨；厂库环比回落1.26万吨至139.54万吨，同比增加19.26万吨；螺纹 表需环比回升5.55万吨至208.64万吨，同比减少30.04万吨。螺纹产量小幅回升，库存降幅有所扩大，表 需回升，供需数据偏强。近期螺纹库存连降十周，库存总量和结构性矛盾均得到明显缓解，多地出现规 格断档的现象，对价格走势形成较强支撑。不过近期钢厂盈利逐步回升，部分钢厂生产已有所恢复，如 华东地区中天、永钢等钢厂12月下旬资源投放量有所增加，市场预期仍较为谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 窄幅整理运行为主 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3074元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨14元/ 吨，涨幅为0.46%，持仓增加2.06万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平 于2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨10元/吨至3190元/吨，全国建材成交量10.12万吨。据国家统 计局数据，1-11月固定资产投资增速同比下降2.6%，其中基础设施投资同比下降1.1%，制造业投资增长 1.9%，房地产开发投资下降15.9%。1-11月，中国粗钢产量89167万吨，同比下降4.0%；生铁产量77405 万吨，同比下降2.3%；钢材产量133277万吨，同比增长4.0%。总体看11投资数据继续走弱，粗钢及生 铁产量处于低位，钢材市场处于供需双弱局面。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于753元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌7.5元/吨，跌 幅为1%，成交37万手，增仓0.4万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉778跌4，超特粉665 跌6 ...

黑色：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：出口政策有变 钢价震荡偏弱 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块集体走弱，焦煤领跌，周度跌幅约10%，品种间强弱关系为铁矿>热卷>螺纹>焦炭>焦煤。宏观方面：一 系列重磅事件相继落地，美联储12月如期降息25个基点，国内中央经济工作会议在北京召开，定调明年经济工作。产业方面：上周钢材 供需双降，库存顺畅去化，随着铁水产量持续走低，压力逐步向原料端传导，盘面交易负反馈。另外，值得重点关注的是，上周五商务 部、海关总署公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1日起执行，可能影响明年钢材出口。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，重磅会议相 | 低估值、弱驱动，钢价 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 继落地，对盘面提振有限，我国再对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在走弱预期，产业方 | 震荡偏弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks in hot - rolled coils. Future price trends will depend on the production cut rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption side may gradually recover. In the short term, due to cost factors, the price of finished products will continue to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - The iron ore supply shows a downward trend in overseas shipments, while the demand has a marginal increase in iron ore due to the rebound of daily hot - metal production. High inventory still suppresses prices, and in the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - The black sector has continued to decline in the past week, but as the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high [9] - The industrial silicon may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13] - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is still in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 90327 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.837133 million lots, a decrease of 20210 lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.061%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 114083 tons, an increase of 6477 tons. The main contract position was 1.287025 million lots, a decrease of 15482 lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, with a neutral overall performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils was weak, unable to absorb the production, and the inventory showed an inverse - seasonal accumulation [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) on Friday was 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% (0.00). The position changed by - 13747 lots to 480400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 900800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07%. The Ximengdu Iron Ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to increase production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline in the latest period. In the shipping end, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to fall, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal production in the latest period was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with the utilization rate of some blast furnaces increasing. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses prices, and the short - term rebound of hot - metal production supports the iron ore demand marginally. In the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range, and the lower limit is 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5748 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 122 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5490 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price [7] - Last week, the manganese silicon price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. On the daily - line level, the price was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation continued to narrow. The ferrosilicon price fluctuated and declined slightly last week, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or - 1.01%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The black sector continued to decline in the past week. As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information (Industrial Silicon) - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) on Friday was 9020 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15027 lots to 403388 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Strategy Viewpoints (Industrial Silicon) - On Friday, the industrial silicon price fluctuated downwards. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate. The supply has shown a contraction trend, and the demand side may reduce the procurement demand for industrial silicon. It may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13][14] Market Information (Polysilicon) - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2601) on Friday was 54045 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.28% (- 150). The weighted contract position changed by + 3947 lots to 241059 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1745 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Strategy Viewpoints (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information (Glass) - The glass main contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.27% (- 24). The price of large plates in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, an increase of 0.18% (111000 boxes). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased 61127 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 78307 lots of short positions [18] Strategy Viewpoints (Glass) - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] Market Information (Soda Ash) - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.05% (- 13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons (an increase of 0.18% in the wrong calculation in the text). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 907100 tons, an increase of 7500 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 800200 tons, a decrease of 14400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 22518 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3823 lots of short positions [20] Strategy Viewpoints (Soda Ash) - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].