黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 68TE | 3159 | 0 | HC05-RB05 | 133 | 134 | -1 | | RB10 | 3019 | 3020 | -1 | HC10-RB10 | 387 | 350 | 37 | | RB01 | 3103 | 3096 | 7 | HC01-RB01 | 182 | 190 | -8 | | RB01-RB05 | -56 | -63 | 7 | RB10-RB01 | -84 | -76 | -8 | | RB05-RB10 | 140 | 139 | 1 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -130 | -119 | -10 | RB05/105 | 4.08 | 4.10 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 65TE | 3128 | 31 | HC05-RB05 | 134 | 131 | 3 | | RB10 | 3020 | 2989 | 31 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 395 | -45 | | RB01 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | HC01-RB01 | 190 | 181 | 9 | | RB01-RB05 | -63 | -56 | -7 | RB10-RB01 | -76 | -83 | 7 | | RB05-RB10 | 139 | 139 | 0 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -119 | -113 | -7 | RB05/105 | 4.10 | 4.12 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with general spot steel transactions and ongoing pre - holiday restocking. The overall output of the five major steel products increased this week, but hot - rolled production decreased. Affected by supply pressure, the apparent demand for hot - rolled weakened, while the demand for rebar continued to recover. With the cooling weather, the downstream demand improved, leading to an overall increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. Steel inventories entered an inflection point, with the five major steel products starting to destock and the inventory accumulation rate of hot - rolled slowing down. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China and the upcoming double festivals may affect some construction site demands. However, with the cooling weather, steel demand may recover to some extent after the festivals. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures market to rise rapidly, but currently, there is a lack of further upward drivers. Pre - holiday long - position funds may leave the market one after another. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices, and there may be a risk of decline about a week after the festivals. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3400 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [6] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and continue holding the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - On September 25, the China Index Academy monitored that the total bond financing of the real estate industry in August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. From May to July, the monthly financing amount showed an increasing trend, but in August, the monthly financing amount decreased year - on - year. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [8] - In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, contract spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. These charts cover different contract periods (01, 05, 10) and different types of profit margins (disk profit, cash profit, etc.) [16][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. There may be a decline risk around one week before and after the holiday, but if downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, due to policy support on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][11]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September, the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [12][15]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, after the release of the sentiment driven by anti - involution news, they can be used as short positions in the industrial chain due to high supply [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decline from the previous period. Steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a 3.4% decrease. From January to August 2025, local government bond issuance reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase. Spot prices of steel in different regions showed some fluctuations [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated at night. Construction steel trading volume on the 24th was 103,900 tons. This week, rebar production increased while hot - rolled coil production growth slowed. Steel inventory continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, leading to an accelerated recovery of apparent demand. High iron - water production is expected to continue this week. Typhoons may affect demand in some areas, but post - holiday demand may recover. There is a lack of upward drivers currently, and there may be a decline risk around the holiday [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend. Arbitrage: Hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short coil - rebar spreads. Options: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average cost of molten iron and billet in Tangshan decreased slightly. On the 24th, the coking coal auction prices in Linfen increased significantly with a low flow - rate. Coke prices in different ports and regions are provided [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke market continued to oscillate at night. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material replenishment. Spot prices are rising. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, which supports coking coal prices. However, the demand and profit of steel limit the upside potential of raw materials [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term shock adjustment; in the medium - term, buy on dips with caution on the upside. Arbitrage: Try to enter long coking coal 1 - 5 spreads at low prices [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Minister of Commerce emphasized efforts to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. Local government bond issuance reached a record high. Global crude steel production data for August and January - August are provided. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract are given [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated narrowly at night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines has increased. Terminal demand in China has weakened while overseas demand remains high. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, the rapid weakening of third - quarter demand may not be priced in, so the price may face pressure at high levels [12][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: No clear strategy mentioned. Arbitrage: Not mentioned. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: On the 24th, the transaction prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port are provided. The government issued a work plan for the stable growth of the building materials industry [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price was slightly stronger on the 24th. Supply remained high, and although iron - water production was high, there was a risk of decline in the future. The anti - involution sentiment in the market drove up the price, but it can still be used as a short position in the industrial chain. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore price was stable, and the silicomanganese price was slightly weaker. Supply was high, demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, and the cost was supported by low - inventory manganese ore. It can also be used as a short position in the industrial chain after the sentiment fades [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Use for high - level hedging of spot; after the sentiment fades, use as a short position in the industrial chain. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell straddle option combinations [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Group 1: Positive Signals from the Meeting - The meeting indicates that China's economy is showing steady progress, with major economic indicators performing well and high-quality development achieving new results [3][4] - The emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will be adjusted to respond to external shocks or downward pressures [3][5] - The meeting highlights the importance of balancing long-term and short-term policies, ensuring continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy Expectations - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain a "steady progress" tone, with fiscal policies accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and long-term government bonds [7][8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain "moderately loose," focusing on structural tools to support technology innovation, consumption recovery, and small and micro enterprises [7][8] - The combination of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies is expected to create a synergistic effect to counter external uncertainties and facilitate the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming for higher quality development to better serve the real economy and investors [10][11] - Capital market reforms are expected to improve market transparency, pricing efficiency, and diversify financing options for enterprises at different development stages [10][11] - The focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding long-term capital into the market is crucial for maintaining a positive market momentum [11] Group 4: Support for Emerging Industries - The capital market is seen as a vital support for the financing and growth of emerging industries, with platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board providing equity financing channels [13][14] - The market's resource allocation mechanisms are expected to accelerate the transformation of innovative achievements into commercial applications [14][15] - The integration of technology and industry innovation is anticipated to be driven by capital market dynamics, fostering a symbiotic relationship between capital and industry [14][15] Group 5: Consumer Demand and Economic Growth - The meeting stresses the importance of boosting consumption as a core driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at enhancing disposable income and optimizing the consumption environment [17][18] - The dual-track approach of stimulating consumption and effective investment is highlighted as a sustainable strategy for economic recovery [18][19] - The focus on improving social security and reducing consumer concerns is expected to enhance consumer confidence and spending [17][18] Group 6: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The meeting outlines a clear commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with policies aimed at optimizing market competition order and regulating disorderly competition among enterprises [20][21] - The emphasis on legal governance and industry standards is expected to promote a healthier and more orderly market environment [21] - The central government's role in coordinating efforts to build a unified market is crucial for resolving short-term profit pressures faced by enterprises [21] Group 7: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as technology innovation, consumer goods, and small and micro enterprises, driven by supportive policies [22][24] - The focus on high-quality infrastructure projects and major strategic initiatives is expected to attract investment in areas like 5G and data centers [24] - Emerging industries, particularly in AI, semiconductor, and biomedicine, are projected to benefit from policy support and present significant investment potential [24][25]

Market Overview - The CSI All Share Index experienced fluctuations but ultimately closed up by 0.60% on July 4, 2025, with over 3,000 stocks rising, indicating a broad market rally[1] - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.9%[2] Capital Flow - On July 3, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 6.79 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 16.28 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were consumer electronics, components, and chemical pharmaceuticals, while the largest outflows were from diversified finance, state-owned banks, and marine equipment[3] Industry Insights - In May 2025, China's automotive exports reached $20.67 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2%[7] - The average monthly sales of electric bicycles through trade-in programs from January to June 2025 grew by 113.5%, with a total of 8.465 million units traded in, which is 6.1 times that of 2024[8] Future Projections - The low-code and no-code software market in China is projected to reach 12.98 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% over the next five years[9] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to optimize capital market mechanisms to better support technological and industrial innovation[5] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the importance of data resource circulation and market-oriented reforms to enhance urban economic vitality and governance[4]