Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Black Metal Daily, October 09, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Threaded Steel - Futures: RB05 price is 3128 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB10 is 3020 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB01 is 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit is - 119 yuan, down 7 yuan; the 10 - contract is - 264 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 01 - contract is - 145 yuan, down 6 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian is 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3200 yuan/ton. The adjustment and rolling profit is 80 yuan, up 30 yuan; the East China threaded steel profit is - 196 yuan, down 10 yuan [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 price is 3293 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; HC10 is 3370 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; HC01 is 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit is 15 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 10 - contract is 86 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 01 - contract is 45 yuan, up 3 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3320 yuan/ton. The Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit is - 256 yuan, down 11 yuan; the East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 161 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [7] - Trading Strategy: The black sector maintains a volatile trend. Steel spot trading is average. After the holiday, demand is released to some extent, and low - price trading is okay. Some steel mills have reduced production. Steel inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the apparent demand has declined rapidly. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel has an expanding trend [8][9] - Specific Strategies: Unilateral trading, maintain the bottom - oscillating trend, suggest buying on dips; for arbitrage, suggest holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and buying the difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel; for options, suggest waiting and seeing [9] - Important Information: This week, the small - sample threaded steel output is 203.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62 tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 146.01 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 43.4% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 95.05 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output is 323.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 290.97 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.72% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 33.64 million tons. In September 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs such as the base price of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the price difference between different contracts, the profit of different contracts, and the cash profit in different regions [17][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].