中辉期货双焦周报 供应偏紧预期仍在，谨慎看空对待 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/11/14 双焦观点摘要 【后市展望】：综合来看，国内焦煤供应偏紧格局尚未被打破，需求仍需关注后续铁水产量的下降幅度。当 前仍处政策空窗期，从市场情绪来看，本周焦煤主力合约继续减仓5.2万手，市场观望情绪进一步增加。策略 上短期建议离场观望为宜，或短空参与。焦煤主力合约参考区间【1150，1230】，焦炭主力合约参考区间 【1630，1710】。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提涨、铁水产量下行等。 2 【市场概况】：本周黑色系商品价格表现继续分化，煤焦价格大幅下跌，螺矿表现相对坚挺。本周二发改委 部署供暖季能源保供工作，会议要求从稳定生产、保障合同履约、应对用能高峰、保障民生采暖、提升灾害应 对及安全生产六方面做实做细，确保群众温暖过冬。从供需层面来看，近期国内煤矿产量环比小幅回升，但仍 处同期低位水平。部分煤矿因搬迁工作面、检查等因素供应恢复缓慢。下游方面，铁水产量环比回升，钢 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Black Metal Daily, October 09, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Threaded Steel - Futures: RB05 price is 3128 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB10 is 3020 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB01 is 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit is - 119 yuan, down 7 yuan; the 10 - contract is - 264 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 01 - contract is - 145 yuan, down 6 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian is 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3200 yuan/ton. The adjustment and rolling profit is 80 yuan, up 30 yuan; the East China threaded steel profit is - 196 yuan, down 10 yuan [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 price is 3293 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; HC10 is 3370 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; HC01 is 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit is 15 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 10 - contract is 86 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 01 - contract is 45 yuan, up 3 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3320 yuan/ton. The Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit is - 256 yuan, down 11 yuan; the East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 161 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [7] - Trading Strategy: The black sector maintains a volatile trend. Steel spot trading is average. After the holiday, demand is released to some extent, and low - price trading is okay. Some steel mills have reduced production. Steel inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the apparent demand has declined rapidly. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel has an expanding trend [8][9] - Specific Strategies: Unilateral trading, maintain the bottom - oscillating trend, suggest buying on dips; for arbitrage, suggest holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and buying the difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel; for options, suggest waiting and seeing [9] - Important Information: This week, the small - sample threaded steel output is 203.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62 tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 146.01 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 43.4% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 95.05 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output is 323.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 290.97 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.72% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 33.64 million tons. In September 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs such as the base price of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the price difference between different contracts, the profit of different contracts, and the cash profit in different regions [17][19][23]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Jiaomei (Coking Coal)**: The price of coking coal may run strongly in the short term. Although the production of some local coking enterprises is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong because of the high level of molten iron in steel mills and the increased enthusiasm of coking enterprises to increase production after seven rounds of price increases for coke. However, the resistance to further price increases is increasing due to the cautious attitude of downstream buyers and the weak steel prices [2]. - **Jiaotan (Coke)**: Coke is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term. The production of coking enterprises in many places is restricted by environmental protection requirements, leading to a tightening supply. Although the purchase rhythm of steel mills has become stable and some coking enterprises' inventory has begun to accumulate, the overall inventory is still at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Jiaomei**: The fundamentals show that the supply is tight due to mine safety inspections, but the downstream procurement is cautious. The basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The inventory has decreased compared with last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main - force position is net short and the short position is increasing [2]. - **Jiaotan**: The fundamentals show that the supply is tightening due to production restrictions in many places. The basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The inventory has decreased compared with last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main - force position is net short and the short position is increasing [6]. **Price** - **Jiaomei**: The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia are provided, with different prices for various brands and ports [10]. - **Jiaotan**: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with different prices for different grades, origins, and ports, and some prices have increased [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. **Other Indicators** - **Coking Coal Spread**: No specific content provided. - **Coke Spread**: No specific content provided. - **Coking Coal Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].