据知情人士透露，日本央行可能最早于下月开始出售其持有的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)，预计这一 过程需要数十年才能完成。据日本央行透露，截至9月底，该央行持有的ETF账面价值为37.1万亿日 元，市值达83万亿日元(约合5340亿美元)。 日本央行自2010年开始购买ETF，以振兴企业部门，通过增加资金供给降低资本成本，并鼓励经济中更 多的风险投资活动。日本央行是唯一一家通过购买ETF向经济注入现金的主要央行。而这类基金通常由 机构和散户投资者持有。 日本央行最初大量投资日经225指数ETF，该指数包含日本的重量级公司。但在2021年，日本央行修改 了指引，只购买跟踪更广泛东证指数(Topix)的ETF。 2013年黑田东彦就任日本央行行长后，资产购买规模迅速扩大，这推动日本股市上涨——当年日经指数 飙升57%。不过，效果随着时间推移逐渐减弱。2020年，大流行引发的市场波动导致日本央行将ETF购 买规模推至峰值，之后规模逐步下降，2023年仅进行了三次购买。日本央行在2024年3月宣布，将停止 购买ETF，并同时终结全球最后的负利率政策。 知情人士表示，日本央行希望保持每月出售ETF的步伐稳定。他们补充称， ...

Core Points - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to maintain the key policy interest rate at 0%, marking the second consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged [1][2] - Inflation remains a critical factor influencing the SNB's monetary policy, with recent inflation rates slightly below expectations, but medium-term inflation pressure showing little change compared to the last assessment [1] - The SNB projects average annual inflation rates for Switzerland at 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1] - Economic growth outlook for Switzerland has slightly improved due to reduced U.S. tariffs and a modest recovery in the global economy, with GDP growth expected to be just below 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026 [2] - The SNB has shifted from a period of rate cuts to a more cautious monetary policy stance, having previously implemented a negative interest rate policy for seven years [2] - The possibility of returning to negative interest rates is not completely ruled out, but the current situation requires careful consideration before making such a decision [2]

新华财经北京12月11日电（崔凯）瑞士央行（SNB）连续第二次维持关键政策利率在0%不变，同时明 确表示，若持续的价格下跌构成通缩威胁，其对进一步降息、将借贷成本推入负值区域持开放态度。 瑞士央行在声明中指出："瑞士央行将继续监测形势，并在必要时调整货币政策，以确保价格稳定。"这 一表态延续了其9月会议结束连续六个季度降息周期后的审慎立场。 数据显示，瑞士11月年度消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅已触及央行设定的0%至2%目标区间的下 限。尽管此前预期通胀将在今年第四季度回升，但近几个月实际通胀略低于预期。基于当前0%的利率 假设，瑞士央行已将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期则由0.7%下调至0.6%。 在全球货币政策分化的背景下，瑞士的决策紧随美联储之后。后者于本周三宣布降息，理由是对劳动力 市场的担忧，但同时暗示由于通胀进展停滞，未来一段时间可能维持利率不变。与此同时，欧洲央行预 计将在2026年前维持利率不变，因其通胀水平已稳定在2%的目标附近。 关于负利率的可能性，瑞士央行主席马丁·施莱格尔曾在9月会议上表示，考虑到对储户、银行利润及养 老基金的潜在冲击，"将利率降至负值区域 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity is generally stable, with most of the 12 districts reporting flat conditions, two showing slight declines, and only one district experiencing slight growth. However, some respondents warned of increased risks of economic slowdown in the coming months [1][2] UK Fiscal Developments - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility unexpectedly leaked the autumn fiscal report, revealing that fiscal buffer space has doubled to £22 billion. The report confirms the freezing of the personal tax threshold, an increase in dividend tax, and plans to introduce a "mansion tax" and an electric vehicle "mileage tax," sparking widespread discussion [1] Canadian Trade Policy - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced a significant reduction in steel import quotas from 50% to 20% for non-free trade partner countries starting in 2024, along with a 25% global tariff on specific steel derivatives to protect domestic industries [1] Japanese Monetary Policy - Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan is preparing for a potential interest rate hike as early as December, driven by increasing pressure from yen depreciation and diminishing political resistance, leading to a resurgence of hawkish rhetoric [1] South Korean Currency Market - South Korean Finance Minister Kyungho emphasized a strict approach to speculative activities in the currency market and ruled out the possibility of restarting a foreign exchange swap agreement with the U.S. to maintain market stability [2] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month-on-month in September, a slowdown from the previous 3% growth. However, core capital goods orders, excluding defense and aircraft, surged by 0.9%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.3%, indicating strong business investment sentiment [2] - As of the week ending November 23, initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April, and below the expected 225,000. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1.96 million, still at historical lows, reflecting resilience in the labor market [2] Australian Inflation Data - Australia's October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.6%. The trimmed mean inflation rate increased to 3.3%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3%, intensifying pressure for potential interest rate hikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) President, Thomas Jordan, indicated that while current inflation remains stable within the bank's defined price stability range, Switzerland's very low inflation rate is expected to rise moderately in the coming quarters [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - The current inflation rate is at the lower limit of the SNB's target range of 0%-2% [1] - A slight increase in inflation is anticipated over the next few quarters [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Jordan emphasized that a high threshold must be met to restart the negative interest rate policy implemented from 2015 to 2022 [1] - The current expansionary monetary policy supports both inflation and economic vitality [1] Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The newly announced preliminary trade agreement with the United States is expected to significantly reduce tariffs on Swiss export goods [1] - However, Jordan warned that tariffs are just one factor contributing to the overall uncertainty, which he described as "poison for the economy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has significantly appreciated recently, driven by safe-haven demand, leading to speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have intervened to curb its strength [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The Swiss Franc has experienced its ninth consecutive weekly increase, marking its best performance in two years [1]. - The exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the Euro surged to a near ten-year high, approaching the critical level of 0.92 [1]. - Despite the Swiss policy rate remaining at zero, the Swiss Franc has seen the highest appreciation against the US Dollar among major developed currencies over the past month [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Risk-averse investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, with the Swiss Franc being a primary choice due to its stable economy and good governance [2]. - Analysts from Societe Generale noted that the risk of intervention by the Swiss National Bank is at its highest level [2]. - UBS analysts believe that the SNB may have already begun market intervention to lower the Swiss Franc's exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Swiss National Bank's Position - The Swiss National Bank does not comment on whether it intervenes in the currency market, and data proving intervention will be released later [3]. - The recent US-Swiss agreement not to manipulate exchange rates allows the SNB to focus on price stability while potentially using intervention to address deflationary pressures [3]. - The options market indicates that the SNB's unilateral actions may slow the appreciation of the Swiss Franc rather than reverse its upward trend [3]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB's meeting minutes suggest that deflation is not a threat, with inflation expected to rise moderately in the coming months [4]. - Despite the Swiss Franc's strength against the US Dollar, it remains relatively stable against the Euro, with geopolitical shocks potentially driving funds into the Franc [4]. - Analysts expect the SNB to continue intervening in the 0.90-0.92 range to manage the Swiss Franc's strength [4].

Group 1: Eurozone and US Economic Outlook - Monex Europe analysts indicate that the weak growth and fiscal concerns in the Eurozone will limit the euro's appreciation potential, suggesting that the euro may only see slight increases if market risk appetite remains strong and interest rate differentials favor the euro [1] - Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes warns that the US economy faces risks of a mild recession, which could lead to significant rate cuts and a weaker dollar, drawing parallels to the 2001-2003 period when the Fed drastically reduced rates from 6.5% to 1.0% [2] - Kudotrade analysts highlight that the upcoming US inflation data will be crucial for assessing future interest rate prospects, with expectations that if the data meets or falls below forecasts, it could reinforce market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026 [1][2] Group 2: Credit Market and Bond Ratings - Concerns over the stability of US regional banks persist, keeping the cost of credit default swaps for US bank bonds at elevated levels, as two banks recently disclosed exposure to bad loans [2] - Danske Bank notes that S&P's downgrade of France's credit rating may increase pressure on French government bonds, with expectations that Moody's will also revise France's outlook from stable to negative [2] Group 3: Gold and Swiss Monetary Policy - ANZ analysts report that investors are increasingly seeking refuge in gold amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold experiencing its largest weekly gain in five years due to the collapse of the US credit market [3] - Capital Economics economists predict that the Swiss National Bank may reintroduce negative interest rates due to near-zero inflation levels and ongoing geopolitical risks, potentially lowering the key rate from 0% to -0.25% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Economists have largely abandoned predictions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering interest rates into negative territory, with only Barclays and Bloomberg Economics forecasting a 25 basis point cut to -0.25% at the December 11 policy meeting [1] Group 1: Current Predictions - Only two institutions, Barclays and Bloomberg Economics, predict a rate cut by the SNB in December [1] - Capital Economics anticipates that any potential rate cut will occur in June of the following year [1] - Goldman Sachs and Pantheon Macroeconomics have shifted their views, now aligning with 15 other analysts who believe that zero interest rates will be the final level [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In June, the SNB's benchmark interest rate was lowered to zero, leading to seven institutions predicting a return to negative rates [1] - Prior to the September rate decision, five institutions also expected the SNB to implement negative rates [1] Group 3: SNB's Stance - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for reintroducing negative rates is significantly higher than for conventional rate cuts [1] - Schlegel noted the negative impact of the previous negative rate policy (2015-2022) on the financial system [1] Group 4: Market Influences - Analyst Jean Dalbard indicated that the foreign exchange market may ultimately compel the SNB to take action [1] - The strengthening of the Swiss franc and the impact of higher-than-expected tariffs from the U.S. on economic growth are key risks facing the SNB [1] - Dalbard predicts that if the Swiss franc continues to strengthen, the SNB may lower rates in December [1]

Core Points - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0%, marking the end of a series of six consecutive rate cuts since March 2024 [1][3][5] - The SNB is prepared to lower rates below zero if mid-term inflation exceeds the price stability range [4][5] Monetary Policy - The SNB's current monetary policy aims to control inflation within the target range of 0% to 2% and support economic growth [3][4] - The SNB has not observed significant changes in inflation pressure compared to the previous quarter [3][4] - The SNB has previously implemented negative interest rates from December 2014 to September 2022, which raised concerns among savers and pension funds [4][5] Economic Outlook - The SNB forecasts Switzerland's GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1% and 1.5%, with inflation expected at 0.2% [4][6] - The global economic growth is anticipated to slow down due to U.S. tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty [6][7] - The Swiss economy has shown signs of weakness, with a GDP growth of only 0.5% in the second quarter following strong growth in the first quarter [7] Trade and Tariffs - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on Swiss goods has significantly impacted the Swiss economy, particularly affecting exports and investments [7][8] - Nearly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. are expected to be affected by the new tariffs, which have been described as unprecedented [7][8] Public Sentiment - A recent poll indicates that a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. regarding tariffs, with many preferring to rely more on domestic products [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0%, marking the end of a series of six consecutive rate cuts since March 2024, amidst stable inflation pressures and economic support needs [1][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The SNB's decision to hold the interest rate at 0% is the lowest among major global central banks [3]. - The central bank has indicated readiness to lower rates below zero if mid-term inflation exceeds the price stability range [2][4]. - The SNB has cumulatively cut rates by 175 basis points over the past year, with the last cut occurring on June 19, 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The SNB expects Switzerland's GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1% and 1.5%, slightly up from previous forecasts [4][7]. - The central bank has noted that the Swiss economy is facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs and high uncertainty, which may suppress exports and investments [6][7]. - The inflation rate in Switzerland has returned to the SNB's target range of 0% to 2% after a period of decline [4]. Group 3: Currency Performance - The Swiss Franc has appreciated significantly this year, gaining over 12% against the U.S. dollar and nearly 1% against the euro, making it one of the best-performing currencies among G-10 [4][5]. - Following the announcement to pause rate cuts, the Swiss Franc's exchange rates remained stable against the euro and the dollar [4]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Trade Relations - A recent poll indicated that a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. regarding tariffs, with many preferring to rely more on domestic products [7]. - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on Swiss goods has raised concerns about significant economic pressure on Switzerland, particularly affecting its export-driven economy [7].