两货! ( chocassom ) 10 612 (7) DU erugions 21:20 - 20000000 222,122 were capi 2127 033 IMOOND : 10000 andon no GHTO: DIRES | $3221 今》 笔记财经晨 ( O 敬请期待! DATE 2025/12/28 ▸ 18:00 ...

——笔记哥《应对》 做短期的逻辑或预期，就是按照"买传闻，卖新闻"来操作，当预期起来时，要相信它，顺势而为；当新闻发生时，要怀疑它，逆势而动。 【笔记20251222— 现券被期货遛得像二哈（-股市小幅上涨-LPR降息落空+资金面均衡偏松=小上】 -------------------------- 又是现券被期货遛得像二哈的一天。这年头，甭管你是买A股、美股、日股还是印度股，是买黄金（she黄）、白银（mai银）、铂金（赌铂）还 是钯金（投机倒钯），只要你不买债，那么除了赚钱你将一无所获。 两个数据：一是，10Y国债利率在1.80%-1.85%区间玩了快两个月；二是，今年全球仅有29%的主动型基金战胜指数，创2019年以来新低。债农看 清未来出路：一是量化，二是固收+，三是......送外卖？ 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展673亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1309亿元逆回购与1200亿元国库现金定存到期，合计净回笼1836元。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

笔记财经晨会 量化是洪水猛兽？一招教你反割量化！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - Micron Technology's HBM business growth is primarily driven by AI demand, with HBM3E and next-generation HBM4 capacity already pre-ordered for 2026, and the company is accelerating deliveries to customers [2] - To solidify its market position, Micron is actively expanding capacity and increasing investments in advanced packaging to address the long-term supply-demand imbalance in the industry [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic analysis at CITIC Futures' strategy meeting draws parallels to the debt cycles of the 70s and 80s, suggesting a potential bullish outlook for government bonds in the context of a U-shaped economic recovery in China [5] - The meeting will also cover stock index arbitrage, financial options strategies, and the recovery outlook for CTA [5] Group 3 - The 2026 Annual Meeting of Finance focuses on economic trends in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, discussing topics such as mechanism innovation to stimulate corporate vitality, macro policies and reforms, income distribution, economic growth, and carbon neutrality [9] Group 4 - The session on AI in investment by Guosen Securities highlights case studies of financial vertical models and general models assisting investment research, along with recent overseas AI+ investment cases [12] Group 5 - The environmental strategy session by Dongwu Research emphasizes marketization of factors, growth in waste-to-energy sectors, and the impact of carbon neutrality initiatives, including the implementation of EU carbon tariffs [15]

今年以来，在《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》等政策推动下，银行理财积极参与打新，且 对科技型公司尤其是科创板公司IPO的关注度不断提高。 业内人士表示，未来打新市场有望保持活力，理财公司在挖掘权益市场机会时，可综合运用打新、量 化、"固收+"等策略增厚产品收益。 银行理财积极参与打新 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 记者 李树超 张玲 【导读】瞄准科创赛道，银行理财加速掘金IPO Wind数据显示，今年二季度仅有光大理财旗下一只产品参与信通电子IPO询价；三季度，光大理财、兴 银理财、宁银理财合计10只产品参与13只新股IPO询价；截至12月5日，四季度以来，光大理财、兴银 理财、宁银理财合计11只产品参与17只新股IPO询价。 截至12月5日，光大理财、兴银理财、宁银理财年内首发获配次数合计达117次，首发获配资金合计达 1656.87万元。 对于理财公司积极参与打新的原因，华宝证券创新研究部副总经理蔡梦苑分析称，一是政策松绑提供制 度基础，扫清了理财资金直接参与网下打新的制度障碍；二是在利率持续下行的市场环境下，网下打新 成为理财公司拓展 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a local rebound, but true trend speculators are cautious about entering positions at this time due to the pressure from the 50-day moving average [1] - The next main theme in the market is still uncertain, although some clues have emerged [2] - There are two potential scenarios for the market: one is a gradual consolidation followed by an upward breakout, which would require a significant increase in trading volume to confirm; the other is a continued pullback approaching or breaking previous lows, potentially forming a double bottom [3] Group 2 - Technical indicators are statistical characteristics that provide objective reference points but cannot replace systematic construction and analysis; many misunderstand technical analysis as merely chart reading [3] - Different technical analysis methods have their strengths, such as volume-price patterns excelling in emotional and behavioral logic reasoning, while the RSI indicator is better at quantifying momentum [4] - A robust trading system requires a comprehensive approach, selecting the best methods for each aspect and understanding the fundamental principles behind them [4]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, particularly in dividend themes, with a notable increase of 1.6% in the benchmark index [2][3] - In contrast, the A-share market's dividend benchmark, the CSI Dividend Index, reached a new high but exhibited minimal growth, raising questions about the underlying causes of this disparity [3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong dividend ETF has performed well, with strong contributions from sectors such as shipping, securities, coal, and energy, leading to an overall increase of 1.6% [4] - The performance of individual stocks within the Hong Kong market shows that major financial stocks have also seen positive growth, contrasting with the A-share market where banks have generally underperformed [5][9] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The A-share market has seen a general trend of smaller gains, particularly in the banking sector, where major banks like China Construction Bank have experienced declines, unlike their Hong Kong counterparts [5][11] - The divergence in performance between the two markets can be attributed to different investor behaviors and market dynamics, with Hong Kong's market being more influenced by foreign capital and having a more concentrated pricing power among leading stocks [8][9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Quantitative strategies have been highlighted as a significant factor in market movements, with strong performance in growth sectors like semiconductors and AI leading to a reverse impact on bank stocks [7][11] - The A-share market's reliance on traditional safe-haven investments contrasts with the more dynamic and flexible nature of the Hong Kong market, which allows for quicker adjustments to market conditions [9][11]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appointment of Ms. Cui Chun as the new General Manager of Huatai-PB Fund, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen the company's index business while pursuing diversified development and deeper strategic collaboration [1][3]. Group 2 - Ms. Cui Chun has over 20 years of experience in the financial industry, with a background that spans securities, funds, and banking, making her a rare leader in the asset management sector [2]. - Under her leadership at Huatai Securities Asset Management, the company achieved significant growth, with total assets under management reaching 627 billion yuan by mid-2025, and revenue exceeding 1.2 billion yuan with a net profit of 713 million yuan [2]. Group 3 - Huatai-PB Fund is recognized as a leading player in the ETF market, with its non-money market ETF scale consistently ranking among the top three in the industry [3][4]. - As of the end of Q3, the ETF management scale of Huatai-PB Fund surpassed 597.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 118.6 billion yuan [4]. - The company has also shown strong execution in developing new broad-based products, such as the A500 ETF, which has reached a scale of 28.393 billion yuan, leading its category [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and limitations of applying quantitative methods in personal investment strategies, emphasizing that the outcomes often follow predictable patterns that may not yield significant advantages [1] Group 1 - Quantitative strategies are often perceived as complex and are typically associated with institutional investors rather than individual investors [1] - The article highlights that the same script tends to repeat itself in quantitative investing, suggesting a lack of innovation and adaptability in personal investment approaches [1]

Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed strong performance, recovering from last week's decline, indicating a surprising market sentiment before the holiday [1] - The surge in the market was unexpected, with significant net selling of financing positions exceeding 19 billion on the previous Friday, marking one of the largest single-day net sell-offs since September 2022 [6][8] Labor Market Insights - There is a notable decline in local young people willing to work on squid fishing vessels due to the isolation and monotony of the job, leading to a reliance on labor from the southwestern regions of China [3] - The discussion highlights the potential future labor shortages in various industries, emphasizing the necessity for the development of industrial robots in the long term [4] Sector Analysis - The broker sector experienced a significant uptick in activity, with Hong Kong brokers rising over 10% in the afternoon, which helped to boost overall market sentiment [19] - Despite the lack of substantial news, the broker sector's rise was attributed to accumulated funds looking for opportunities as other sectors lacked focus [22] Gold Market - Spot gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing 3,800 USD, with a notable acceleration in price increases after breaking through previous resistance levels [27] - The market is questioning whether spot gold or the Shanghai Composite Index will reach higher levels by the end of the year [30] Weekly Highlights - The article references a weekly selection of insights, including analyses on gold stocks, the Hong Kong securities sector, and the latest views on U.S. stocks [33]