食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the consumer sector, with a focus on the potential recovery signals in the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the last week, with retail, textiles, and home appliances showing positive growth, while food and beverage, and beauty care sectors faced declines [4]. - A new policy from the Ministry of Commerce aims to enhance duty-free shopping, which is expected to boost consumer spending and attract overseas consumption back to domestic markets [4]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a period of adjustment, with major players like Kweichow Moutai showing stable revenue despite a weak consumption backdrop, while smaller regional brands are struggling with high inventory and declining profits [4]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's performance varied, with retail (+1.63%), textiles (+1.04%), and home appliances (+0.74%) gaining, while food and beverage (-0.23%) and beauty care (-2.21%) declined [4]. - Key stocks that led gains included Richen Co. (+17.79%) and Dechang Co. (+18.35%), while ST Chuntian (-7.92%) and Stone Technology (-12.34%) were among the biggest losers [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice to improve duty-free store policies, effective November 1, which includes expanding product categories and easing approval processes [4][15]. - The liquor sector is experiencing accelerated adjustments, with Kweichow Moutai reporting Q3 revenue of 39.81 billion yuan (up 0.35% YoY) and net profit of 19.22 billion yuan (up 0.48% YoY), while smaller brands face significant profit declines due to high inventory levels [4][18]. - Various companies reported their Q3 earnings, with notable performances including Jinbo Biological (+31.1% YoY revenue growth) and Midea Group (+10.06% YoY revenue growth) [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry experienced high prosperity from 2019 to 2022, but has faced declining demand and performance pressure in 2023, leading to a downward adjustment in valuations, currently around a PE of 20 times. Despite this, the long-term development logic remains solid, with leading companies actively adjusting strategies for growth, indicating potential for a rebound if performance exceeds expectations. Additionally, capital expenditures are expected to decline in 2024, improving free cash flow and shareholder returns [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The restaurant industry's revenue growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2019 to 2024 due to weak consumer recovery, significantly impacting the demand for frozen food products. This has resulted in noticeable declines in the performance of listed companies in the sector, with no clear turning point in sight. Market sentiment regarding the long-term growth potential of leading companies is pessimistic, despite the irreversible trend towards food freezing and significant long-term growth opportunities [2]. - The industry has faced performance pressure due to a mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by aggressive expansion during optimistic market conditions in previous years. Increased competition from a fragmented market has led to greater promotional discounts and higher expenditure, resulting in a decline in capital return rates. However, capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly in 2024, and the total number of employees in the sector has begun to stabilize, indicating an awareness of the supply-demand imbalance and a shift towards active adjustments [3]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Some companies within the sector are actively seeking solutions to break through current challenges by expanding product categories, launching new products, and exploring emerging channels for growth. For instance, Anjuke Foods (603345) has shown strong operational resilience and plans to emphasize product-driven growth by increasing new product launches and focusing on direct-to-consumer sales to enhance profit margins by 2025. Meanwhile, Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215) has been increasing its R&D and sales personnel, enhancing its channel capabilities in both large and small business segments, and is embracing new retail channels to drive growth in dish and baking categories [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Anjuke Foods (603345.SH), Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215.SZ), Baoli Foods (603170.SH), and Weizhi Xiang (605089.SH) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The industry has experienced high prosperity from 2019 to 2022, but since 2023, the downturn in market conditions has led to declining performance and pessimistic expectations, resulting in a gradual decline in valuations, with the current PE around 20 times. However, the long-term development logic of the industry remains solid, and leading companies are actively adjusting to seek incremental growth, which could lead to a rebound if performance exceeds expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The restaurant industry's revenue growth is significantly slowing to low single digits from 2019 to 2024, leading to noticeable pressure on the demand side for the frozen food industry. This has resulted in a decline in the performance of listed companies in the sector over the past two years, with no clear turning point in sight. Market expectations regarding the long-term development space and growth ceiling of leading companies are pessimistic [2]. - The industry is facing a mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by increased competition due to prior optimistic expansion. The combination of weak demand and increased supply has led to intensified competition, with mainstream manufacturers prioritizing market share over profit, resulting in increased promotional discounts and higher expenditure, which has decreased the capital return rate in the sector [3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Some companies within the sector are actively seeking solutions to break the current impasse by expanding product categories, launching new products, and exploring emerging channels for growth. For instance, Anjuke Foods, as a leading player in the frozen food sector, has shown strong operational resilience and plans to emphasize product-driven growth by increasing new product launches and focusing on the consumer end to enhance profit margins by 2025 [4]. - Qianwei Central Kitchen, which has a higher proportion of restaurant business, faces greater short-term performance pressure but has been increasing its R&D and sales personnel in recent years. The company is also enhancing its channel capabilities in both large and small B-end markets while embracing new retail channels and expanding into dish and baking categories to seek incremental growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 first-level sectors [12]. - The report highlights a rebound opportunity in the liquor sector, particularly for high-end and regional leading brands, as market sentiment improves and policy catalysts emerge [7][12]. - The beer sector is expected to recover this year, despite short-term disruptions from delivery platforms, with low inventory levels and favorable cost trends [7][12]. - The snack segment shows high growth potential, driven by strong categories and new channels, with specific products like konjac gaining popularity [7][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dairy sector, where prices are stabilizing, and a potential turning point in raw milk prices is anticipated [7][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.74% increase, with pre-processed foods and health products performing relatively well, rising by 1.97% and 1.88% respectively [12][17]. - The top five gainers included *ST Xifa, Jiaoda Anli, Huang Shang Huang, Tianyou Dejiu, and Tianrun Dairy, with increases ranging from 5.92% to 9.89% [12][17]. 2. Price Trends - As of July 27, 2024, the batch price for 2024 Moutai (scattered) was 1900 yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 10 yuan and a monthly increase of 50 yuan [21]. - The beer production for June 2025 was reported at 4.12 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [26]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The beverage manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 814.69 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase [53]. - Jiangsu province's liquor production in the first half of 2025 was 81,700 kiloliters, down 15% year-on-year [53]. 4. Company Updates - Yanjing Beer announced a cash dividend of 1.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 536 million yuan, with the record date set for July 28 [55]. - Jiu Gui Jiu declared a cash dividend of 6.00 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 195 million yuan, with the record date on July 30 [55].