国泰海通发布研报称，2019-2022年，行业景气度较高，市场给予了较高估值。2023年至今，景气度下 行、业绩承压，悲观预期下，板块估值逐渐下行，目前PE在20倍左右震荡。该行认为行业长期发展逻 辑依然坚实，龙头公司成长天花板依然较大，且已经在积极调整、做增量，如果最后在业绩端有超预期 兑现，则板块有望迎来触底反弹。同时2024年板块资本开支开始拐头向下，自由现金流显著改善，板块 股东回报也在提升。 供需错配，积极调整 该行也能看到板块内一些公司在积极找寻破局之道，通过打出扩新品类、推新产品、布局新兴渠道的组 合拳，找新增量。①安井食品（603345）：公司作为速冻龙头，经营韧性较强，近几年的业绩表现显著 好于竞对。消费理性化、渠道碎片化的趋势下，产品力越发关键，公司2025年着重强调以产品驱动增 长，加大推新力度，同时新品向C端倾斜以提升利润率。②千味央厨（001215）：公司餐饮占比更高， 短期业绩承压更大，但公司近几年的研发及销售人员不断增加，在大B和小B端的渠道力都是有提升 的。另外公司也在通过拥抱新零售渠道、拓展菜肴类/烘焙类做新增量。 风险提示：消费复苏疲软;竞争加剧;成本上涨;食品安全事件等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 first-level sectors [12]. - The report highlights a rebound opportunity in the liquor sector, particularly for high-end and regional leading brands, as market sentiment improves and policy catalysts emerge [7][12]. - The beer sector is expected to recover this year, despite short-term disruptions from delivery platforms, with low inventory levels and favorable cost trends [7][12]. - The snack segment shows high growth potential, driven by strong categories and new channels, with specific products like konjac gaining popularity [7][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dairy sector, where prices are stabilizing, and a potential turning point in raw milk prices is anticipated [7][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.74% increase, with pre-processed foods and health products performing relatively well, rising by 1.97% and 1.88% respectively [12][17]. - The top five gainers included *ST Xifa, Jiaoda Anli, Huang Shang Huang, Tianyou Dejiu, and Tianrun Dairy, with increases ranging from 5.92% to 9.89% [12][17]. 2. Price Trends - As of July 27, 2024, the batch price for 2024 Moutai (scattered) was 1900 yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 10 yuan and a monthly increase of 50 yuan [21]. - The beer production for June 2025 was reported at 4.12 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [26]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The beverage manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 814.69 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase [53]. - Jiangsu province's liquor production in the first half of 2025 was 81,700 kiloliters, down 15% year-on-year [53]. 4. Company Updates - Yanjing Beer announced a cash dividend of 1.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 536 million yuan, with the record date set for July 28 [55]. - Jiu Gui Jiu declared a cash dividend of 6.00 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 195 million yuan, with the record date on July 30 [55].