看好发电机组供热改造解锁新机遇 华泰研究 证券研究报告 公用环保 2025 年 12 月 29 日│中国内地 专题研究 清洁供暖或支撑供暖强度提升，工业供热市场广阔 根据我们测算，2024 年我国热力终端消费量或达 91 亿吉焦，其中居民生活 /工业占比约 20/75%，对应工业供热市场规模 4908 亿元（~25 亿吨蒸汽）。 据我们测算，我国人均供暖用热量较全球主要经济体平均水平低 67%，热 源视角下，美国的天然气较中国的煤炭具有较为明显的价格优势，未来清洁 供暖比例提升有望支撑我国供暖强度提升。工业供热市场对于火电、核电和 垃圾焚烧来说是有效补充，电价下行周期中供热业务对发电企业的盈利增厚 将更为显著，未来发电机组或标配供热能力，我们测算 2030 年火电、核电、 垃圾焚烧、生物质发电机组或贡献 2259 亿新增工业供热市场。推荐福能股 份、中国核电。 供暖：我国人均用热量较低，清洁供暖有望打开供暖强度提升空间 据我们测算，2023 年中国住宅建筑空间供暖用热量 5703PJ，在全球主要经 济体中位列第一；但供暖人均用热量约 4.0GJ/人，较全球主要经济体平均 水平（12.22GJ/人）低 67%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful implementation of the Dulan clean heating project in Qinghai Province represents a significant advancement in clean energy solutions for high-altitude, cold regions, benefiting over 11,700 households and setting a model for similar initiatives across China [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Dulan clean heating project is the largest and most extensive clean heating initiative by China Datang Corporation in Qinghai, providing a comfortable heating season for residents [1] - The project utilizes air source heat pumps and electric boilers to convert abundant local photovoltaic and wind energy into heating, achieving zero emissions and pollution [1][2] Group 2: Environmental Impact - The project is expected to save 140,000 tons of standard coal annually, leading to a reduction of approximately 390,000 tons of carbon dioxide and 1,020 tons of sulfur dioxide emissions each year [2] - The implementation of the project contributes to a significant reduction in harmful pollutants, enhancing the overall environmental quality in Dulan County [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - A smart heating management system adjusts the heat distribution based on indoor and outdoor temperature data, maintaining optimal comfort levels for residents [2] - The project serves as a case study for the digital transformation of heating systems in China, providing insights for the development of standards and measurement systems for clean heating in cold, high-altitude areas [2] Group 4: Socioeconomic Benefits - The clean heating project has created job opportunities for local residents, increasing their sense of happiness and satisfaction [2] - It represents a profound green transformation for Dulan County, contributing to a safe, low-carbon, and efficient heating framework [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative clean heating solutions being implemented in Gansu Province, China, to ensure residents stay warm during the heating season while also addressing air pollution concerns. Group 1: Clean Heating Projects - The Yan'erwan sewage source heat pump station in Lanzhou is the first project in Gansu to utilize sewage as a heat source, providing heating to surrounding areas [1][3] - The heat pump station features five 10-megawatt sewage source heat pump units that can be adjusted based on weather conditions to meet heating demands [3] - The Ma Tan geothermal heating demonstration project extracts 74°C geothermal water from 2,300 meters underground, which is then filtered and delivered to residents [5] Group 2: Environmental Benefits - The geothermal heating project covers an area of approximately 750,000 square meters, providing heating for over 7,000 households and saving more than 7,000 tons of standard coal annually [9] - The clean energy heating initiatives in rural areas include solar thermal systems that convert solar energy into heat, ensuring warmth without traditional coal stoves [10][12] - The use of biomass clean energy boilers in rural households utilizes agricultural waste, reducing coal pollution and promoting resource recycling [14][18]

Core Points - The article discusses the exploration of clean heating methods in Gansu Province, particularly in Lanzhou, aiming to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions during the heating season [1] Group 1: Urban Heating Innovations - Lanzhou has introduced the first sewage source heat pump station in Gansu, set to operate in the 2025 heating season, which can reduce carbon emissions by 47,000 tons annually compared to traditional gas boilers [1] - The sewage source heat pump technology extracts thermal energy from treated sewage without burning fossil fuels, creating a closed system that returns sewage to the treatment plant [6] - Another project in the Qilihe District utilizes geothermal water extracted from 2,300 meters underground, saving over 7,000 tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 19,000 tons each year [8] Group 2: Rural Clean Heating Initiatives - In rural areas, Gansu is promoting clean heating solutions, such as solar thermal systems that convert solar energy into heat for residential use without coal stoves [11] - In Huai County, villagers are installing biomass clean energy boilers that use agricultural waste as fuel, effectively reducing coal pollution and promoting waste recycling [12] - A total of 5,150 households in Huai County are set to implement clean energy heating renovations by 2025, significantly lowering atmospheric pollutant emissions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts and advancements in clean heating initiatives across various regions in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of geothermal heating in Tibet and waste-to-energy systems in Hebei, aiming to ensure a warm winter while promoting environmental sustainability [1] Group 1: Clean Heating Initiatives - Tibet's Naqu City, the highest prefecture-level city in China, has launched the largest geothermal heating project, achieving zero pollution and zero emissions by overcoming technical challenges [1] - Over 90% of the population in regions above 5000 meters in Tibet, including Lhasa, Naqu, Ali, and Shigatse, now benefit from clean heating solutions [1] Group 2: Waste-to-Energy Transformation - In Qiu County, Hebei, a new waste incineration heating system has transformed municipal waste into a clean heat source, meeting the heating needs of 75% of local residential communities [1] Group 3: Government Investment and Impact - Since 2017, the Chinese government has invested 132.07 billion yuan to support clean heating renovations in 88 cities in northern China, successfully replacing coal for approximately 41 million households [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of clean heating solutions in Tibet, particularly as the region enters the heating season amidst colder weather [1] - Tibet has rich geothermal, hydropower, and solar energy resources, which are being utilized to implement clean heating projects, significantly improving the quality of life for local residents [1][5] - The largest geothermal heating project in China, located in Naqu City, has successfully overcome technical challenges, achieving zero pollution and zero emissions in its operations [3] Group 2 - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Tibet has secured 41.05 billion yuan in central budget funds and attracted 37.75 billion yuan in social capital for heating projects, benefiting over 900,000 people [5] - Seven pilot projects for clean energy centralized heating have been launched in Tibet, with a recent solar heating project in Shigatse providing continuous heating for 690,000 square meters [6] - The goal is to achieve full coverage of heating and oxygen supply facilities in towns above 3,000 meters and in pastoral areas above 4,500 meters [8] Group 3 - In Shandong, the longest heating pipeline in China has been completed, connecting the industrial waste heat from Liaocheng to Jinan, providing a stable clean heat source [10] - The pipeline, part of the "Liaohot into Jinan" project, spans 110 kilometers and is expected to meet the heating needs of one-fourth of Jinan's urban area [12] - The project is projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 356.4 million tons this heating season, equivalent to the carbon sequestration of four Saihanba forest farms in a year [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.509 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.29% to 659 million yuan, primarily due to asset impairment losses and increased media resource costs [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.698 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.06% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 9.56% to 618 million yuan, aligning with expectations [6] - The heating and steam business revenue grew by 4.05% to 2.275 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 556 million yuan, reflecting a 10.96% increase [6] - The company has a strong cash position with 7.393 billion yuan in cash, representing 43% of total assets, which supports its dividend and share repurchase strategies [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.632 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 841 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 27.6% [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, which is 67.5% of the net profit, along with a special dividend of 0.12 yuan per share, totaling 712 million yuan in dividends [6] - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 16 and 15, respectively, with a reasonable market value of 165 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current market capitalization [6]