东方金诚宏观研究 强调就业降温、释放鸽派信号，为 9 月降息打开空间 ——2025 年杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔讲话解读 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，认为 当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。鲍 威尔在演讲开头就指出，今年，美联储实现就业和通胀双重使命面临的"风险平衡似乎正在发 生转变。"他认为，当前经济状况对货币政策的影响是："失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定 使我们能谨慎考虑政策立场的调整。然而，由于政策处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的 风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场。"关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示："总体来看，劳动力市 场虽处于平衡，但这是一种因劳动力供需双双大幅放缓所致的'奇特平衡'。这种异常形势暗示 就业的下行风险正在增加。"关于关税对通胀的影响，鲍威尔表示，一种"合理的基准假设" 是，关税会导致物价水平"一次性"上涨，但这些影响需要时间才能完全体现在经济中。综合 各种影响因素来看，鲍威尔认为："短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一 个有挑战的局面。"对 ...

Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation." The measures state that the state will implement total quantity control management for rare earth mining and the smelting and separation of various rare earth products obtained through mining, import, and processing [3] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self-discipline and maintain fair competition in the photovoltaic market. The initiative emphasizes resisting malicious competition below cost and avoiding blind expansion that worsens market ecology, shifting from homogeneous low-efficiency competition to high-quality competition [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a decision to amend regulations, effective from August 22. The main changes include improving business development scoring indicators to guide securities companies in enhancing operational quality and better serving in areas like long-term capital introduction and wealth management [3] - The Hang Seng Index Company released its quarterly review results, adding China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart to the Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks to 88. The Hang Seng Technology Index remained unchanged with 30 constituent stocks, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added Pop Mart and removed Jitu Express [3] Company News - Changjiang Electric Power announced that its controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 4 billion to 8 billion yuan [5] - Taihe Group announced that its chairman and general manager, Huang Qisen, is under investigation for suspected illegal activities by the New Min City Supervisory Committee in Liaoning Province [5] - Vanke A reported a net loss of 11.947 billion yuan for the first half of the year [5] - Kunlun Wanwei announced a net loss of 856 million yuan for the first half of the year [8] - Chip Origin announced that six shareholders plan to transfer 5% of the company's shares through inquiry [8] - Huajin Technology announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - Tai Lingwei announced plans to acquire all or part of the equity of Panqiwei, with stock suspension next Monday [8] - Huayang Lianzhong announced that it will be subject to other risk warnings starting August 26, with its stock name changing to ST Huayang [8] - Shengnuo Bio announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3.43% [8] - Shuo Beid announced a net profit growth of 981.11% for the first half of the year [8] - Tonghuashun announced a net profit growth of 38.29% for the first half of the year, proposing a dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Ganfeng Lithium announced a net loss of 531 million yuan for the first half of the year [8] - Zhaoyi Innovation announced a net profit growth of 11.31% for the first half of the year [8] - Jiu Gui Jiu reported a net profit decline of 92.6% for the first half of the year [8] - Jiangsu Guotai announced plans to use no more than 12 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management [8] - Silan Micro announced a net profit of 265 million yuan for the first half of the year, turning a profit [8] - China CNR announced a net profit growth of 72.48% for the first half of the year, proposing a dividend of 1.1 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Jiaozuo Wanfang announced plans to acquire 99.44% of Sanmenxia Aluminum at a transaction price of 31.949 billion yuan [8] - Hengsheng Electronics announced a net profit growth of 772% for the first half of the year, exceeding performance forecasts [8]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，风险的平衡转变，可能需要调整政策。在我看来，美联储的政策利率具有适度 的限制性。从声明中删除（若干）长期目标。美联储一致通过新的政策框架，采用灵活的通胀目标制， 并取消了通胀"补偿"策略。从框架中删除有效的更低措辞。形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。劳 动力市场处于一个"不寻常的平衡"状态。劳动力供应已经趋软，（进而）与需求保持一致。就业市场稳 定性允许我们谨慎地推进（货币政策）。关税对价格的影响可能是暂时性的，这是一个合理的基本假 设。预计关税对价格的影响将在未来数月累积。不会允许一次性上涨成为一个持续性的问题。关税对消 费者价格的影响是显而易见的。我们不能认为稳定的通胀预期是理所当然的事。更长时间的通胀预期似 乎得到很好的锚定。 ...