炼化景气度
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恒力石化(600346):反内卷下炼化景气度触底反弹在即
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-28 09:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 103.887 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.050 billion yuan, down 24.08% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.296 billion yuan, a decline of 35.16% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.45% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.82%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 999 million yuan, down 46.81% year-on-year and 51.28% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The report highlights that the refining and chemical industry is expected to rebound as the "anti-involution" policy is implemented, leading to a potential improvement in the industry's prosperity [11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.49 billion yuan, 8.95 billion yuan, and 11.83 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the closing price on August 25, 2025, are 18.6X, 13.5X, and 10.2X [11]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including total revenue and profit margins, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability over the next few years [17]. Industry Insights - The company is positioned as a unique player in the industry, integrating oil, coal, and chemicals within a single industrial park, which significantly reduces operational and logistics costs [11]. - The report notes that the aromatic chain is expected to see continuous improvement in prosperity due to limited supply growth of PX while downstream demand remains stable [11].
恒力石化(600346):公司信息更新报告:炼化景气度回暖,2025Q1扣非归母净利润环比大增
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:04
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is maintained as "Buy" [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refining sector, benefiting from cost advantages and operational flexibility, which supports the optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.239 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 112.75% [6]. - Sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5.4309 million tons, 4.1067 million tons, and 1.3354 million tons, respectively [6]. - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5,181.99 yuan/ton, 4,391.90 yuan/ton, and 6,963.22 yuan/ton, reflecting a positive trend [6]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for Hengli Petrochemical for 2025-2027 are as follows: net profit of 9.142 billion yuan in 2025, 11.395 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.324 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.30 yuan, 1.62 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.0 for 2025, 9.6 for 2026, and 8.9 for 2027 [5][8]. Industry Outlook - The refining sector is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions, with a notable increase in refining margins since Q4 2024 [7]. - The recent increase in fuel oil import tariffs is anticipated to reduce the operational capacity of less efficient refineries, benefiting the overall quality development of the refining industry [7].
恒力石化(600346):油价中枢回落,未来炼化景气度有望改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-22 02:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit decreased by 13.14% year-on-year to 5.21 billion yuan [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 58.51 billion yuan, down 5.14% year-on-year and 10.30% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, up 61.03% year-on-year and 78.39% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 582 million yuan, down 42.91% year-on-year and 46.30% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve net profits of 7.12 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan, and 9.51 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.5X, 13.2X, and 11.6X based on the closing price on April 21, 2025 [12]. - The company has maintained a high cash dividend ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 56.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 [12]. Industry Position - The company is positioned as a unique large-scale chemical enterprise that integrates oil, coal, and chemicals, with significant production capacities located within the same industrial park, which reduces operational and logistics costs [12]. - The company has a production capacity of 5.2 million tons of PX and 1.8 million tons of pure benzene, which are high-value chemical products in demand [12]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing shareholder returns as it approaches the end of its current investment and capital expenditure peak [12]. - New projects in fine chemicals and new materials are set to be launched, with the Suzhou Fenhu base expected to produce 470,000 tons of high-end functional polyester films annually [12].