Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 05 月 11 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 欧洲炼厂洗牌日益加剧 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/5/6—2025/5/11) 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 欧洲炼厂洗牌日益加剧。由于需求萎缩、炼厂设施老化以及炼厂盈利能力的下滑，欧洲 炼厂规模正在面临萎缩，自 2005 年以来，欧洲炼厂的产能规模已经下滑了 420 万桶/ 天，降幅超过 23%，活跃炼厂数量也从 140 家下降至 90 家左右。从使用年限上看，欧 洲炼厂平均年龄为 66 岁，高出全球平均的 51 岁，高出 ...

上 市 公 司 石油石化 2025 年 04 月 29 日 桐昆股份 (601233) ——业绩同比显著提升，涤纶长丝与大炼化弹性可期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 16.44/9.63 | | 市净率 | 0.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.40 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,516 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.16 | | 资产负债率% | 64.57 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,405/2,396 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提 ...