以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者云摇 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 2026年最危险的行业。 文 ｜ 云摇 编辑 ｜ 张一弛 来源｜ 金错刀（ID： ijincuodao ） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 2026年第一批被抢空的爆款，竟然是飞天茅台。 开年第一天，i茅台上架1499元的飞天茅台，每人每天限购12瓶，前1分钟服务器直接崩溃，哪怕平台每隔5分钟补货一次都被瞬间抢空，仅半小时就全部售 罄。 烟酒店这门生意，兴起于上世纪90年代，最早由河南许昌、商丘等地的农民进城经营，以老乡传帮带的方式迅速在全国开枝散叶。 与茅台的热闹形成刺眼对比的是，遍地狼藉的 烟酒店 。 中国烟酒流通协会数据显示，2025年全国烟酒店数量锐减约19%，相当于一年消失了32万家。过去5年里，全国已有超130万家烟酒店倒闭，平均每天有近 900家店旺铺转让。 曾几何时，名烟名酒的招牌是街头巷尾最坚挺的风景线，开烟酒店更是很多人心中旱涝保收的铁饭碗。只要一手握着烟草专卖证，一手握着几个单位团购客 户就能年入百万，有的甚至能开成"传家店"。 如今这场席卷全国的关闭潮，彻底撕碎了烟酒店的躺赚神话。 中年人最爱的烟酒店， 成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional tobacco and liquor retail industry is facing a systemic crisis, driven by internal operational rigidity and external market pressures, leading to significant profit erosion and operational challenges for retailers like Wang Cheng [12][26]. Group 1: Market Changes - The business model of tobacco and liquor retail, which relied on high-frequency cigarette sales to cover fixed costs and high-margin liquor sales for profit, is no longer effective [1][6]. - The sales volume for high-end cigarettes has drastically decreased, with some products selling for less than their official prices, indicating a collapse in the pricing structure [5][6]. - Liquor sales are experiencing unprecedented price wars, with some well-known brands selling below their purchase prices, further straining profitability [7][23]. Group 2: Internal Challenges - The internal operational mechanisms, particularly the tiered distribution system, have become a burden rather than an incentive, forcing retailers to purchase unsellable products to maintain their status [14][20]. - Retailers are increasingly opting to reduce or abandon their weekly order quotas and downgrade their tobacco licenses as a survival strategy [9][10]. - The traditional profit model has been disrupted, with retailers facing losses on previously profitable products, leading to a reevaluation of their inventory strategies [19][25]. Group 3: External Pressures - The rise of e-commerce platforms has significantly impacted traditional retail, as consumers can now access better prices online, undermining the cash flow from high-end liquor sales [22][24]. - The transparency of pricing and availability on online platforms has eroded the competitive advantage that traditional retailers once held through personal relationships and information asymmetry [23][26]. Group 4: Transformation Strategies - Retailers are exploring two main transformation strategies: integrating with online platforms for digital operations and enhancing community engagement through personalized service [27][31]. - While some retailers have seen initial success with online orders, the majority find that this approach does not fundamentally resolve their core business challenges [30][35]. - Strengthening community ties and providing personalized service can create a competitive edge that online platforms cannot replicate, as seen in Wang Cheng's efforts to build trust and relationships with customers [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the newly implemented "strictest alcohol ban" on the liquor retail industry, particularly focusing on the survival crisis faced by smoke shops, which are heavily reliant on B2B sales to government and enterprise clients [5][6][22]. Group 1: Impact of the Alcohol Ban - The "strictest alcohol ban" has led to a drastic decline in sales for smoke shops, with some regions reporting a year-on-year drop of up to 80% in white liquor sales [8][20]. - Smoke shops, which previously relied on government and enterprise orders for about 50% of their sales, are now facing a collapse in this segment due to the ban on alcohol at work-related meals [10][34]. - The overall revenue of the liquor industry in Shandong decreased by 18.7% in the first month of the ban, which is significantly better than the 40%-80% drop experienced by smoke shops [23]. Group 2: Business Model of Smoke Shops - Smoke shops operate under a unique business model that is heavily dependent on B2B sales, with government and enterprise orders constituting a large portion of their revenue [10][29]. - The article highlights that the commercial logic of smoke shops is fundamentally different from traditional retail, as they rely more on client relationships and less on retail sales [26][30]. - The shift in the market dynamics due to the ban has forced smoke shops to transition from a client-resource-based model to a market-competitive model, leading to a significant transformation in their operations [38][41]. Group 3: Future of Smoke Shops - The future of smoke shops is uncertain, with many facing the possibility of closure or a shift to different business models as they adapt to the new market conditions [45]. - Some smoke shops are exploring new avenues such as instant retail and gift card sales to mitigate the impact of the ban on their traditional business [41][42]. - Despite efforts to adapt, smoke shops face stiff competition from larger retail chains and convenience stores, which have advantages in pricing and product variety [43].