以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者云摇 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 2026年最危险的行业。 文 ｜ 云摇 编辑 ｜ 张一弛 来源｜ 金错刀（ID： ijincuodao ） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 2026年第一批被抢空的爆款，竟然是飞天茅台。 开年第一天，i茅台上架1499元的飞天茅台，每人每天限购12瓶，前1分钟服务器直接崩溃，哪怕平台每隔5分钟补货一次都被瞬间抢空，仅半小时就全部售 罄。 烟酒店这门生意，兴起于上世纪90年代，最早由河南许昌、商丘等地的农民进城经营，以老乡传帮带的方式迅速在全国开枝散叶。 与茅台的热闹形成刺眼对比的是，遍地狼藉的 烟酒店 。 中国烟酒流通协会数据显示，2025年全国烟酒店数量锐减约19%，相当于一年消失了32万家。过去5年里，全国已有超130万家烟酒店倒闭，平均每天有近 900家店旺铺转让。 曾几何时，名烟名酒的招牌是街头巷尾最坚挺的风景线，开烟酒店更是很多人心中旱涝保收的铁饭碗。只要一手握着烟草专卖证，一手握着几个单位团购客 户就能年入百万，有的甚至能开成"传家店"。 如今这场席卷全国的关闭潮，彻底撕碎了烟酒店的躺赚神话。 中年人最爱的烟酒店， 成 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, shifting from traditional consumption patterns dominated by government and business to a new model that emphasizes personal enjoyment and self-satisfaction [2][3] - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, reporting a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan, up 0.5% [2] - The company is adapting its strategy to focus on both traditional and younger consumer bases, as well as international markets, to capture the emerging "self-enjoyment" consumption trend [3] Industry Trends - The white liquor market is expected to coexist with traditional and modern consumption patterns, including social and personal enjoyment, as well as online and offline sales [3] - The introduction of new products aimed at younger consumers, such as the "Fenxiang Youth 28-degree" series, reflects a shift towards lower alcohol content and diverse flavors to attract different demographics [3] - The marketing approach is evolving, with a focus on consumer engagement rather than traditional promotional methods, as evidenced by the popularity of user-generated content and nicknames for products [4] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a national expansion strategy, targeting 12 core markets and 5 opportunity markets, while also exploring potential in 10 low-alcohol markets [3] - The company recognizes the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences and is committed to re-evaluating its market approach and product offerings [3] - Other major players in the industry, such as Kweichow Moutai, are also shifting towards market-oriented strategies, emphasizing consumer-centric marketing and digital integration [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional consumption patterns dominated by government and business to a new model that emphasizes personal enjoyment and self-consumption [3][4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry faced its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with Shanxi Fenjiu being one of the few companies to maintain growth [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported revenue of 32.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.41 billion yuan, up 0.5% [3]. Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is adapting its strategy in response to the changing market dynamics, focusing on both traditional and emerging markets while emphasizing youth and internationalization as key growth drivers [5]. - The company plans to launch a new low-alcohol product line, "Fenxiang Youth 28 Degrees," and expand its offerings in fruit, floral, and herbal flavors to attract younger and older consumers [5]. Consumer Behavior Insights - Consumer preferences are evolving, with a notable shift towards self-consumption and diverse drinking scenarios, which presents new challenges for liquor companies [6]. - A survey indicated that 70% of consumers are indifferent or even resistant to traditional marketing messages, preferring user-generated content and social media trends [5]. Market Trends - The liquor market is expected to see a coexistence of social drinking, self-enjoyment, and investment collection, with a focus on experiential and diversified consumption [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, shifting from a growth model primarily driven by government and business consumption to a new paradigm that emphasizes both "pleasing others" and "self-pleasing" [1][2] - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth amidst a challenging market, reporting a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan, up 0.5% [1] - The traditional consumption patterns are becoming less effective, necessitating a reevaluation of market strategies by liquor companies [1][5] Industry Trends - The rise of self-pleasing consumption is impacting the social attributes of liquor, leading to a market that will feature a coexistence of traditional and modern consumption styles, as well as online and offline channels [2] - Fenjiu's 2026 strategy includes a focus on national expansion and targeting core markets while also emphasizing youth and internationalization as key growth avenues [2][4] Product Development - Fenjiu plans to launch a new low-alcohol product line called "Fen Enjoy Youth 28 Degrees," with over ten products in development [4] - The brand "Bamboo Leaf Green" is adopting a "Fenjiu+" approach to introduce fruit, floral, and herbal flavors to attract younger and older consumers [4] Consumer Engagement - Consumers are reshaping liquor consumption through their choices and actions, prompting companies to rethink their market and consumer engagement strategies [5] - A significant portion of consumers (70%) are indifferent or even resistant to traditional marketing, preferring user-generated content and social media trends [5] - The industry is moving towards a more market-oriented marketing transformation, focusing on consumer-centric approaches and digital integration [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, shifting from a traditional growth model based on government and business consumption to a new paradigm that emphasizes both "pleasing others" and "self-pleasing" [1][2] - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, reporting a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan with a year-on-year increase of 5% and a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan, up 0.5% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The traditional consumption patterns are becoming less effective, necessitating a reevaluation of market strategies by liquor companies [1][2] Industry Trends - The rise of self-pleasing consumption is impacting the social attributes of liquor, leading to a market that will feature a coexistence of traditional and modern consumption styles, as well as online and offline channels [2] - The 2026 strategy for Fenjiu includes a focus on national expansion and targeting 12 core markets, 5 opportunity markets, and 10 potential markets for low-alcohol products [2][4] - Fenjiu plans to introduce a new low-alcohol product line, "Fen Enjoy Youth 28 Degrees," and expand its bamboo leaf green wine brand to attract younger and older consumers [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are reshaping liquor consumption through their choices and actions, prompting companies to rethink their market approach [4] - A significant portion of consumers (70%) are indifferent or even negative towards traditional promotional content, preferring user-generated content and social media trends [4] - The complexity of liquor consumption is increasing, with social drinking, self-drinking, and investment collection coexisting, leading to higher demands on liquor companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, particularly the Moutai brand, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and market value plummeting, leading to a broader crisis in the industry [1][4]. Market Conditions - Moutai's bottle price has dropped below 1700 yuan, nearly halving from its peak in 2021, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][4]. - The entire high-end liquor market is facing a price inversion, where selling more leads to greater losses for distributors, compounded by an inventory pressure of 900 days [1][4][3]. - The China Securities White Liquor Index has only increased by 10% since last September, indicating stagnation in the market [3]. Inventory and Sales Challenges - The inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% year-on-year increase, suggesting that products are sitting in warehouses for over two and a half years [4][3]. - Distributors are hesitant to stock up during peak seasons due to the risk of further losses [4]. Changing Consumer Preferences - Young consumers are increasingly rejecting high-end liquor, with only 13% of 18 to 35-year-olds choosing liquor over other beverages [8][11]. - The trend is shifting towards lower-alcohol beverages, with the low-alcohol market projected to reach 75 billion yuan by 2025 [8][11]. Cultural Shifts - The perception of liquor among younger generations is negative, associating it with outdated drinking culture and forced social interactions [11][12]. - 72% of younger consumers have experienced pressure to drink liquor, leading to a cultural shift away from traditional drinking practices [12]. Health Consciousness - There is a growing emphasis on health, with many older consumers reducing their alcohol intake due to health issues, resulting in a decline in traditional liquor consumption [12][14]. - The narrative that liquor is beneficial for health has been debunked, further diminishing its appeal [12]. Industry Response - Liquor companies are attempting to adapt by introducing lower-alcohol products, but these efforts have not significantly resonated with younger consumers [8][9]. - The industry is urged to address issues related to taste, consumption scenarios, and cultural perceptions to remain relevant [15].

Core Viewpoint - The frequent leadership changes at Moutai reflect deeper issues within the Chinese liquor industry, which is facing significant challenges including declining market demand and changing consumer preferences [1][3][4] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Moutai has experienced four leadership changes in five years, with the latest being Chen Hua, who lacks experience in the liquor industry [1][3] - Each leader implemented various strategies, but short tenures hindered the continuity of these strategies, leading to confusion among distributors and consumers [3][4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is suffering from a significant decline in demand due to economic downturns, which has reduced business-related drinking occasions and gift-giving [4][6] - Moutai's revenue growth of 9% in the first half of the year was misleading, as it was achieved through inventory control rather than genuine market demand [6][9] - Young consumers are not abandoning liquor; rather, the industry has failed to attract them due to a lack of appealing products and marketing strategies [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is facing overcapacity and inflated prices, resulting from a decade of aggressive expansion that has led to a surplus of unsold inventory [7][9] - The price system has become unstable, with significant fluctuations causing uncertainty for both consumers and distributors [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the liquor industry is expected to recover, with historical resilience during past economic downturns [9][10] - For recovery, Moutai and other industry leaders need to stabilize their strategies, engage younger consumers with relevant products, and align pricing with market conditions [10][12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving relationship between Generation Z and traditional Chinese liquor, particularly Fenjiu, highlighting the generational shift in drinking culture and preferences [1][20][21] - Fenjiu is increasingly being embraced by young consumers, who are seeking products that align with their tastes and lifestyles, indicating a potential growth opportunity for the brand [1][21][22] Group 1: Generation Z's Drinking Preferences - Generation Z, often labeled as "digital natives," is characterized by a desire for individuality and unique consumption experiences, which has led to a rejection of traditional liquor like Baijiu due to its strong flavors [1][20] - Young consumers are not averse to alcohol; rather, they are looking for products that resonate with their own drinking culture, which is distinct from previous generations [1][20] - The emergence of Fenjiu as a popular choice among young drinkers suggests a shift towards a more personalized and culturally relevant drinking experience [1][20][21] Group 2: Personal Experiences with Fenjiu - Individual stories from young consumers illustrate how Fenjiu has become integrated into their social lives, with unique drinking experiences enhancing their appreciation for the liquor [2][3][6][19] - For instance, one consumer, Kiki, discovered Fenjiu during a trip and found it to be a versatile ingredient for cocktails, indicating a trend of mixing traditional liquor with modern drinking practices [3][4][13] - Another consumer, Shitou, emphasizes the cultural significance of Fenjiu in his life, associating it with personal milestones and social gatherings, which reinforces the brand's connection to community and tradition [7][9][11] Group 3: Fenjiu in the Bar Scene - Bartender Abao has creatively incorporated Fenjiu into cocktail recipes, showcasing its adaptability and potential to appeal to a younger audience through innovative mixology [12][14][17] - The cocktail "Power," made with Fenjiu, has gained popularity, reflecting a growing trend of using traditional liquors in contemporary drink offerings [13][14][17] - Abao's approach highlights the potential for Fenjiu to bridge the gap between traditional and modern drinking cultures, appealing to a diverse consumer base [12][14][17] Group 4: Business and Cultural Trends - The article notes that Fenjiu is becoming increasingly popular in business settings, particularly in Guangdong, where it is favored for its lighter taste that complements local cuisine [19][20] - The rise of Fenjiu in business dining reflects a broader acceptance and appreciation of traditional liquors among younger professionals, indicating a shift in corporate drinking culture [19][20] - Overall, the development of a diverse, creative, and less hierarchical drinking culture among young consumers presents significant opportunities for Fenjiu to expand its market presence [20][21][22]

Core Insights - The white liquor consumption season has begun post the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, showing an acceleration in sales compared to the off-season [1] - There is a significant shift in consumer behavior from ostentatious spending to more rational choices, leading to a structural differentiation in the market [4][9] Market Trends - Compared to the same period last year, the white liquor market is experiencing a "mild recovery" but remains "slightly weak" year-on-year [4] - The main sales price range for white liquor has shifted from 300-500 yuan to 100-300 yuan, indicating a downtrend in consumer spending [4][9] - High-end products priced between 500-800 yuan are facing challenges, while products under 300 yuan, especially staple liquors, are performing well [4][8] Sales Performance - Sales of staple liquors like Fenjiu and Niulanshan have been strong during the holiday season, while mid-to-high-end products are generally underperforming [7][8] - The price of Feitian Moutai has shown fluctuations, with a slight increase noted post-holidays, indicating ongoing demand for this high-end product [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now purchasing based on need rather than bulk buying, showing increased price sensitivity and a preference for self-consumption [9][10] - The traditional consumption scenarios are evolving, with a decline in formal business banquets and a rise in casual settings like home drinking and social gatherings [10] Market Opportunities - The banquet market remains a critical area for growth, with a significant portion of white liquor sales still tied to events like weddings and business gatherings [11][12] - Companies are increasingly focusing on the banquet market through targeted product strategies and marketing campaigns to enhance brand visibility and sales [12][13] Strategic Focus - Companies are advised to refine their strategies in the high-end and mass banquet markets, increasing store coverage and innovating banquet policies to capture more market share [13]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, is experiencing a downturn during the holiday season, with expected sales volume declining by approximately 20% compared to last year [2] - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational purchasing, with a noticeable decrease in bulk buying and heightened price sensitivity [2] - The demand for high-end and business gifting has not recovered as quickly, while the impact of local "alcohol bans" continues to affect consumption patterns [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The sales of mass-market liquor are outperforming high-end and mid-range products, with mass products benefiting from strong demand for banquet consumption [2] - High-end brands like Moutai are experiencing growth, with sales volume increasing by 15% to 35% in certain regions before the holiday [2] - Mid-range liquor, priced between 500 to 1000 yuan, is facing significant challenges, with double-digit sales declines due to pressure from both high-end and mass-market segments [3] Group 2: Sales Channels - Offline retail stores are seeing decreased foot traffic, while online sales are booming, with platforms like JD.com reporting significant sales during promotional events [5][6] - Meituan's flash sales showed an approximately 800% year-on-year increase in baijiu sales, with major brands achieving daily sales exceeding 10 million yuan [6] - The success of online sales is attributed to competitive pricing and fast delivery, aligning with consumer preferences for convenience and value [6]