Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2215.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.28% observed during the session [1][2] - Current market sentiment indicates that the caustic soda market is in a phase of weak oscillation, with no significant improvement in supply and demand [2] - Analysts suggest that the price may find support around 2100-2130 CNY/ton, while resistance is noted at 2300-2320 CNY/ton, indicating a cautious approach to trading strategies [2][3] Group 2 - Supply conditions remain ample as some chlor-alkali facilities that had reduced output are resuming production, contributing to a surplus in the market [2] - Demand from the alumina sector is stable, but other downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber and dyeing are experiencing seasonal declines in operating rates, leading to weak performance [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is expected to remain weak, with recommendations to avoid counter-trend operations and to observe market conditions before making decisions [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The current supply - demand situation of caustic soda is loose. The supply has increased due to the end of production and maintenance of upstream enterprises this year, while the demand has been weak and difficult to bear the supply. With the arrival of winter, the active destocking pressure of upstream enterprises may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities on the disk [3]. - The current caustic soda pattern remains weak, and the futures price mainly follows the decline of the spot price. In the short term, it is difficult to change the current loose supply - demand pattern. If enterprises face active destocking pressure in the future, they may lower prices to digest inventory. However, since the current price is close to the loss of comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the disk has limited momentum to further release pessimistic sentiment and only operates at a discount to the spot price. It is recommended to focus on whether the active destocking behavior of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises is fulfilled before the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In November, the domestic caustic soda futures showed oscillations in the first half of the month and further declined in the second half. Near the end of the month, the price slightly stabilized. The decline was mainly due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic expectations. The current situation is high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The inventory level is about 50% higher than that of last year. The industry characteristics lead to the need for upstream enterprises to actively destock before the Spring Festival, which may further suppress the spot price and guide the disk to weaken [10][11]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The report presents the spot prices of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Inner Mongolia on November 27, 2025 [12][16][18]. 3.3 Price Spreads - It shows the price spreads between different types of caustic soda (such as 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, 99% flake caustic soda - 32% caustic soda) and different regions (such as 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang - Shandong, 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu - Shandong) on November 27, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production and Capacity Distribution**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. In November, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.755 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.07%. The domestic caustic soda production in October was 3.7577 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in November was 87.60%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.22% compared to October [44]. - **Maintenance**: The report lists the long - term shutdown, current maintenance, and planned future maintenance of chlor - alkali plants of various enterprises in different regions. The total impact on the 100% equivalent production this month is expected to be 93,600 tons [52]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: It shows the operation status of flake caustic soda units of different manufacturers, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned startup [55]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 41,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.78%. The exports were 33,251.06 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. The imports of solid caustic soda were 882.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.76%. The exports were 56,575.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.59% [59][60]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Alumina**: In November, the wait - and - see sentiment in the alumina market increased. Although the spot price of alumina had a phased rebound, the market still showed oversupply. The short - term production reduction of alumina plants had limited impact on monthly production, and the inventory was at a high level [75]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: In November, the domestic viscose staple fiber market declined. The monthly average price was 18,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decline of 0.75%. The cost side increased, the supply decreased slightly, but the inventory increased slightly. The market entered the off - season, and the demand decreased [75]. 3.7 Inventory - In November, the inventory of liquid and flake caustic soda plants increased month - on - month. The domestic liquid caustic soda plant inventory was 275,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.48% compared to October 31. The domestic flake caustic soda plant inventory was 33,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.94% [93]. 3.8 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. In November, the cost side strengthened month - on - month. The industrial salt market was weak, while the coal price increased. The national average price of industrial salt for large - scale industries decreased in November. The price of动力煤 in the main producing areas mainly increased [95][96][97]. 3.9 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based northwest integrated chlor - alkali, and the market prices, capacity utilization rates, and production gross profits of products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [104][110][118]. 3.10 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, including data on total production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, consumption, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].