浙商证券表示，产能置换政策是供给侧结构性改革的核心工具，旨在控制总量、优化存量。该政策通过 减量或等量置换的原则，确保在新增先进产能的同时淘汰落后产能，从而实现行业总产能只减不增，并 推动产业升级。然而，由于产能置换指标的严格限制，可能导致未来需要减产。为了应对这一问题，国 家建立了煤炭产能储备制度，以减少部分产能置换指标。因此，在保持现有政策不变的情况下，预计煤 炭行业的供需将逐步趋于平衡，煤价将稳步上涨。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较 高，截至9月18日，近12个月股息率超5.3%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分 批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其联接基金（联接A：008279；联接C：008280； ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in China is facing potential risks related to the newly increased coal mine capacities, which may be revoked if companies fail to fulfill their capacity replacement commitments by the end of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is a key tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" by ensuring that new advanced capacities are built only after eliminating outdated capacities [2]. - The policy promotes high-quality development in the coal industry by limiting total capacity while improving capacity quality through market and legal means [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3]. - The government provided financial incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity replacement ratios and required that closed mines' capacities be at least 120% of the new mines' capacities [3]. Group 3: Current and Future Capacity Management - In the current production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the government maintains the "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" principles while implementing a commitment system for capacity indicators [4]. - Companies can initially commit to increased coal mine capacities, with subsequent fulfillment of capacity replacement indicators [4]. Group 4: Capacity Constraints - Based on the 2015 capacity baseline and the "13th Five-Year Plan" exit situation, the legal capacity limits are estimated at 4.7, 4.5, and 4.4 billion tons per year, which is below the projected production of 4.76 billion tons in 2024 [6]. - Strict enforcement of capacity replacement policies may necessitate future production cuts, while a coal capacity reserve system has been established to alleviate some capacity replacement indicator constraints [6]. Group 5: Investment Targets - Key companies to focus on in the thermal coal sector include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and others [7]. - In the coking coal sector, companies such as Huaibei Mining (600985.SH) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) are highlighted for investment consideration [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The capacity replacement policy is a core tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" through "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" principles, ensuring that new advanced capacity is built while eliminating outdated capacity [3][8] - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3][21] - In the production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the policy continues to adhere to reduction replacement principles while implementing a commitment system for capacity indicators [3][23] - The capacity replacement commitment system is crucial for optimizing coal capacity management and ensuring national energy security [3][30] - The coal industry's supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, with coal prices steadily rising under the current policy framework [3][40] Summary by Sections Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is essential for addressing overcapacity in industries like coal, steel, and cement, focusing on controlling new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity [8][10] - Specific policies were introduced from 2016 to 2018, mandating "reduction replacement" for the coal industry [15][16] Supply-Side Structural Reform Period (2016-2020) - The coal industry faced a situation of oversupply, prompting the implementation of tighter capacity allocation policies and reduction replacement measures [21][24] - Policies during this period included incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity indicators [24][25] Production Increase and Supply Guarantee Period (2021-2025) - The commitment system allows coal mines to promise capacity increases without immediate compliance with replacement indicators, aiming to expedite the release of quality capacity [30][31] - The policy encourages the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system to enhance supply flexibility and resilience [39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others in the thermal coal sector, as well as companies in the coking coal sector like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [3][40]

为应对煤炭供需波动、保障能源供应稳定，国家发展改革委、国家能源局于2024年4月 联合印发《关于建立煤炭产能储备制度的实施意见》，提出到2027年初步形成可调度产能储 备体系，2030年力争实现3亿吨/年的储备目标。通过"常规产能+储备产能"的弹性机制，确 保紧急状态下煤炭"产得出、调得快、用得上"。按此要求，自治区能源局上报了13处产能储 备项目。3月6日，国家能源局正式审核通过自治区能源局申报的13处煤炭产能储备项目，可 建成储备总产能达2360万吨/年，其中8处已核准煤矿项目总产能9200万吨/年，储备产能 1640万吨/年；5处待核准项目总产能3600万吨/年，储备产能720万吨/年。这是国家建立煤炭 产能储备制度以来全国首批获批的项目，标志着我区煤炭应急保供能力迈出关键一步，为能 源安全再添"压舱石"。 自治区能源局相关负责人表示，将严格遵循国家能源战略部署，统筹发展和安全，持续 推进煤炭清洁高效利用，为保障国家能源安全贡献力量。 全力以赴加快项目建设，推动在建项目加快建设、及早投产。 全区已开工建设煤矿13处、产能11030万吨/年，其中，鄂尔多斯市7处、产能5900万吨/ 年，锡林郭勒盟4处、产 ...