1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure due to the pattern of "weak supply and demand", with the price center further moving down. In 2026, the pattern of "decreasing supply and weak demand" for steel is expected to continue, but the supply - demand gap may narrow marginally under policy guidance. The iron ore market is expected to enter a new stage of "continuous supply expansion and differentiated demand structure" [1][78][80]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side structural optimization continued to exert force in 2025, accelerating supply contraction. In 2026, the policy direction of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the structure" remains unchanged for steel supply [1][78][80]. - The demand side shows significant differentiation and weakness. Real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down significantly, and although steel exports provided some resilience, they were difficult to fully offset the decline in domestic demand [1][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Weak Supply and Demand, Oscillating Downward - In 2025, black - series commodities continued the trend of oversupply and weak oscillation, with coking coal falling 5.94% and coke dropping 12.67%, iron ore's decline narrowing to 2.12%, and rebar falling 5.51%. The overall trend can be divided into four stages: oscillating upward from early January to late February, moving down from early March to late May, slowly rebounding from early June to early August, and oscillating downward from early August onwards [3][4]. 3.2 Steel Supply: Environmental Restrictions, Continuous Decline 3.2.1 Global Supply: Structurally Differentiated Economic Recovery, Production Expected to Continue Contracting - In the first 10 months of 2025, global crude steel production decreased year - on - year. China's crude steel production declined, while India's increased significantly, and the United States, Turkey and other countries also showed an upward trend. In 2026, global crude steel production is expected to continue a slight downward trend [10]. - In 2026, China's crude steel supply is expected to remain within 1 billion tons. India is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the production of countries like Turkey is expected to continue growing, but it is difficult to fully make up for the reduction in China's production [1][13]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply: Continuous Reduction due to Environmental Restrictions - Since 2021, China has implemented policies to control steel production capacity. In 2025, relevant policies further tightened the control of new production capacity. From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 817.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.56%. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will be in the range of 970 - 980 million tons, a decrease of about 2.5% - 3.5% compared with 2024 [16]. - In 2026, under the pressure of macro - policies and weak demand, China's crude steel production is expected to continue to contract [20]. 3.3 Steel Demand: Real Estate Continues to Weaken, Infrastructure Investment Growth Slows Down 3.3.1 Limited Support from Real Estate Policies, Difficult to Change the Weak Reality - In 2025, China introduced a series of real estate support policies, but the real estate market was still in a deep - adjustment period. From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 14.77%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.87%, and the completion area decreased by 16.99%. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to be under pressure [25][30][32]. 3.3.2 Steel Exports Reach a New High in Total, but Structural Contradictions are Prominent - In 2025, China's steel exports maintained a high level in quantity, but the average export price continued to decline, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The exports to "Belt and Road" countries showed strong growth. Indirect exports of electromechanical products, automobiles (especially new - energy vehicles) were relatively optimistic, while home - appliance exports showed a downward trend [34][36][40]. 3.3.3 Investment: Manufacturing Remains Stable - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment was under pressure, but manufacturing investment remained resilient. In 2026, the manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, and in 2026, infrastructure construction investment will continue to follow the active fiscal policy orientation [42][46][53]. 3.4 Iron Ore: Loose Supply, Weakening Demand 3.4.1 Supply: Loose Overseas Ore Pattern, Limited Increment of Domestic Ore - In 2025, the production of the four major iron - ore mines increased slightly in the first three quarters. It is estimated that the annual production in 2025 will increase by more than 4% compared with 2024. The Simandou project started shipping, which will have a profound impact on the market pattern. In 2026, Vale and Rio Tinto plan to expand production capacity [57][61][62]. - In 2025, China's iron - ore production decreased year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume increased by 1.4%, and the port inventory reached a high level. In 2026, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import dependence will remain high [69][71][72]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Domestic Demand, Weakening Export Support - In 2025, domestic demand for iron ore was weak, and the direct export growth of iron ore slowed down. In 2026, China's iron - ore demand is expected to continue the pattern of structural differentiation, with the overall pig - iron output slightly falling and steel exports being the core support [75]. - In 2026, the iron - ore market will enter a new stage of long - term supply relaxation. The price is expected to be under long - term downward pressure, and the market trading logic will shift from "quantity increase" to the game of "ore quality" and "production cost" [76]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure, with supply contracting and demand weakening. The iron - ore market shifted from "tight balance" to "loose" [78][79]. - In 2026, the rebar price is expected to show an "M" - shaped oscillation, with the price center in the range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton. The iron - ore import price center is expected to be maintained in the range of 90 - 100 US dollars/ton [80][81].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent bullish trend in the stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of technology stocks and cyclical sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing the 4000-point mark [3][4][8]. Technology Sector - Technology stocks showed strong performance, with semiconductor and computing power sectors leading the charge. Notable stocks include Xinyisheng, which rose by 8.27% to reach a historical high, and Zhongji Xuchuang, which increased by 3.34% [4][20]. - The consumer electronics sector also performed well, with companies like Wentai Technology and Dongshan Precision seeing significant gains [20][22]. Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sectors experienced a rally, with steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and electricity stocks all showing strong upward movement. The classic combination of "coal, steel, and electricity" was evident in the market [7][10]. - Steel stocks, such as Changbao Co. and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, saw substantial increases, with some stocks reaching their daily limit up [11][14]. Market Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.54% [8]. - The total market capitalization of leading stocks in the computing power sector approached 1 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [4]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes regarding steel production capacity are expected to improve long-term supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry. The new regulations aim to restrict new steel production capacity in key regions, which may lead to better market conditions for leading steel companies [13][14]. Coal Sector - In the coal sector, companies like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanghai Energy saw significant price increases, reflecting strong demand as power plants prepare for winter coal storage [15][18]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes a bullish sentiment in the market, driven by strong performances in technology and cyclical sectors, alongside supportive policy changes that may enhance the investment landscape in the steel and coal industries [4][14][18].

Core Viewpoint - The capacity replacement policy is a key tool for supply-side structural reform, aimed at controlling total capacity and optimizing existing capacity, ensuring that new advanced capacity is added while eliminating outdated capacity, leading to a reduction in total industry capacity without increase [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Impact - The capacity replacement policy may lead to future production cuts due to strict limits on replacement indicators [1] - A coal capacity reserve system has been established to mitigate the impact of strict capacity replacement indicators [1] - The coal industry is expected to gradually achieve supply-demand balance, with coal prices projected to rise steadily [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998) and offers a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of coal assets is highlighted [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in coal ETF (515220) and its connected funds (Connect A: 008279; Connect C: 008280; Connect E: 022501) to seize investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in China is facing potential risks related to the newly increased coal mine capacities, which may be revoked if companies fail to fulfill their capacity replacement commitments by the end of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is a key tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" by ensuring that new advanced capacities are built only after eliminating outdated capacities [2]. - The policy promotes high-quality development in the coal industry by limiting total capacity while improving capacity quality through market and legal means [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3]. - The government provided financial incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity replacement ratios and required that closed mines' capacities be at least 120% of the new mines' capacities [3]. Group 3: Current and Future Capacity Management - In the current production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the government maintains the "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" principles while implementing a commitment system for capacity indicators [4]. - Companies can initially commit to increased coal mine capacities, with subsequent fulfillment of capacity replacement indicators [4]. Group 4: Capacity Constraints - Based on the 2015 capacity baseline and the "13th Five-Year Plan" exit situation, the legal capacity limits are estimated at 4.7, 4.5, and 4.4 billion tons per year, which is below the projected production of 4.76 billion tons in 2024 [6]. - Strict enforcement of capacity replacement policies may necessitate future production cuts, while a coal capacity reserve system has been established to alleviate some capacity replacement indicator constraints [6]. Group 5: Investment Targets - Key companies to focus on in the thermal coal sector include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and others [7]. - In the coking coal sector, companies such as Huaibei Mining (600985.SH) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) are highlighted for investment consideration [7].

Group 1 - The glass futures market has seen a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 1100 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by strong market sentiment and increased capital inflow [1] - There is a cautious attitude among glass industry players, with many expressing reluctance to accept high prices, as evidenced by declining quotes from traders in Shihezi [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has implemented a capacity warning mechanism for key industrial products, including flat glass, indicating a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction [1] Group 2 - In the building materials glass sector, some companies are opting for proactive cold repairs while waiting for further news, leading to a reduction in glass inventory [2] - The glass production lines have been affected, with four lines reported to be offline, resulting in a daily melting capacity loss of 2800 tons [2] - The cautious approach is also reflected in the downstream processing sector, where companies are only willing to take short-term orders due to tight cash flow in real estate projects [2] Group 3 - There is a prevailing atmosphere of caution in the market, with some investors betting on the effectiveness of policy implementation, while the actual demand remains uncertain [3] - The recent price recovery in the glass market has not translated into confidence among traders, who remain wary of the sustainability of the price increase without real order support [3] - The divergence in stock market performance is evident, with leading companies in the photovoltaic glass sector seeing stock price increases, while automotive and building materials glass companies experience volatility [2]

Summary of the Solar Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar glass industry is influenced by new capacity replacement policies encouraging the conversion of float glass to solar glass, as mentioned in the government work report aimed at stabilizing growth [2][10] - The real estate market's downturn is negatively impacting demand for building materials, which in turn affects the solar industry [2] Key Points - **Price Trends**: - Solar glass prices have been declining since July 2024, with recent recovery to approximately 1.5 yuan per square meter, but still below cost, leading to significant losses for companies [2] - Prices for 2mm thick glass range from 13 to 13.5 yuan, while 3.2mm thick glass is priced between 20 and 21 yuan [3][14] - **Inventory and Production Plans**: - Current inventory has decreased to about 3.4 days, with production plans of 40 GW in February and an expected 55 GW in March, indicating an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [4] - **Future Production Capacity**: - An estimated 1.5 million tons of new production lines are expected to be operational in 2025, with potential for more if prices remain above 14 yuan [5] - The industry has a total capacity of approximately 90,000 tons, with plans to add 50,000 tons over the next three years, though actual additions may be between 30,000 to 50,000 tons due to regulatory risks [6][7] - **Global Market Outlook**: - Global installed capacity is projected to grow by 11% in 2026, reaching 530-590 GW, which may alleviate some industry pressures [8] - China accounted for over 50% of global installed capacity in 2024, with ongoing demand for renewable energy supporting solar glass needs [8] - **Regulatory Environment**: - Local governments are supportive of new projects despite regulatory challenges, with many projects still advancing despite potential violations [11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" from various provinces provides a framework for the industry's development, which could facilitate project approvals once the economic environment improves [10] - **Cost Structure**: - Leading companies have cash costs around 12.5-13 yuan per square meter, while second-tier companies face costs of 13-13.5 yuan, highlighting the importance of cost control [14][17] - **Challenges and Opportunities**: - The industry faces challenges from international trade dynamics, tariff policies, and uncertain global demand, with a cautious outlook for 2025 [8] - The use of low-quality raw materials is not widespread, with most companies moving away from such practices [13] Additional Insights - The impact of the cost per kilowatt-hour event on the solar glass industry has raised concerns, particularly regarding international trade standards and competition [12] - The dual control of energy consumption and carbon emissions policies will continue to influence production, particularly in environmentally sensitive areas [18][19]