风险提示：安全生产风险、煤价大幅波动风险、宏观经济波动风险、新建产能不及预期风险 展望：供给依然偏紧，需求增长可期 "反内卷"背景下未来安监力度仍在，在当前政策背景下，各地或继续加强对审批和安全生产的监察，晋 陕蒙等主产地纷纷落实查超产从而限制煤炭产能释放。而我国最大煤炭进口国印尼26年起降低出口目 标，进口煤争抢变激烈，整体供应增量有限。需求侧由于163号文影响，该行认为光伏风电装机速度下 调，绿电替代效应放缓，而制造业及数据中心用电需求有望逐步释放，引领新的煤电需求。焦煤方面， 国内供给仍然偏紧，蒙煤或有增量，而制造业用钢已经超越建筑用钢，未来钢铁供需格局将更大程度受 到制造业方面影响。 投资策略：聚焦红利与成长价值 煤企盈利越发具备确定性，未来市场逐步认可煤炭高股息-提估值逻辑。限制产地政策出台日期为2025 年7月10日，而近期煤价底部出现在6月上旬，动力煤港口价609元/吨，主焦煤港口价1230元/吨，这时 候出台政策说明当前环境下政策对于煤价的下限容忍度基本维持在这个水平。当前利率依然保持在较低 位置，将更加凸显红利低波投资价值，对于低风险偏好的资管、保险等产品，或将在资本市场增加对煤 炭板块的投 ...

Group 1 - The tightening of coal supply is becoming the current investment theme in the coal industry, with an expectation that the oversupply situation will gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - The demand for winter coal storage is expected to rise, which may improve the coal supply-demand balance and could lead to restrictions on imported coal in the future [1] - The coal mining industry is likely to see improved supply-demand dynamics and price increases, which may enhance the performance elasticity of related companies [1] Group 2 - The only coal ETF in the market, Coal ETF (515220), tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998) and has a scale of nearly 13 billion yuan, with a high dividend yield of over 5.3% in the past 12 months as of September 30 [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the value of allocating to Coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradually accumulating positions to seize investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of coal supply is becoming the current investment theme in the coal industry, with an expectation that the oversupply situation will gradually reverse and coal prices are likely to continue rising [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for winter coal storage is increasing, which may lead to an improvement in the coal supply-demand structure [1] - Future restrictions on imported coal are also anticipated [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market, Coal ETF (515220), tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998) and has a scale exceeding 13 billion [1] - The coal sector offers a high dividend yield, with over 5.3% in the past 12 months as of September 30 [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradually accumulating positions to seize investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by supply-side tightening and improving coal price sentiment, with expectations for better demand and pricing in the coming years [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Coal Energy (601898) increased by 6.39%, trading at HKD 10.99 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) rose by 3.28%, trading at HKD 11.34 - China Shenhua Energy (601088) saw a 2.36% increase, trading at HKD 40.76 - Yancoal Australia (03668) gained 1.27%, trading at HKD 28.74 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding documents has significantly impacted coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - The coal demand is expected to rise due to high consumption levels during the summer of 2025, leading to an improved coal supply-demand structure [1] - The gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies may also restrict imported coal in the future [1] Group 3: Profit Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been poor in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to show upward price elasticity for coal, with the coal sector's performance lagging behind other sectors but showing clear bottoming signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by tightening supply-side conditions and improving coal price sentiment, with expectations for a better supply-demand balance in the coming years [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Coal Energy (01898) increased by 6.39%, reaching HKD 10.99 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) rose by 3.28%, reaching HKD 11.34 - China Shenhua Energy (01088) saw a 2.36% increase, reaching HKD 40.76 - Yancoal Australia (03668) gained 1.27%, reaching HKD 28.74 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to a report from Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding capacity documents has significantly impacted coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - The coal industry is expected to see improved demand due to high consumption levels during the summer of 2025, with potential restrictions on imported coal as "anti-involution" policies are gradually implemented [1] Group 3: Profit Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been under pressure in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could lead to improved profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to show upward price elasticity for coal, with the coal sector's performance anticipated to rebound significantly compared to other sectors [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 18.1 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.014 billion yuan, down 48.44% [1] - The coal business experienced a revenue drop of 13.48% to 10.4 billion yuan, while the gross profit from coal fell by 24.15% to 4.94 billion yuan [1] - The power and heat business showed a slight revenue decline of 5.24% to 3.15 billion yuan, but gross profit surged by 930% to 270 million yuan due to reduced costs [1] - The coking business faced a severe revenue decline of 34.76% to 3.12 billion yuan, with a gross loss of 48.75 million yuan, reflecting ongoing pressures from the real estate sector [1] Coal Business - In H1 2025, coal revenue was 10.4 billion yuan, down 13.48%, with costs at 5.45 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.82% [1] - The gross profit from coal was 4.94 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.15% [1] Power and Heat Business - The power and heat segment generated revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, down 5.24%, while costs decreased by 12.56% to 2.88 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit for this segment increased significantly to 270 million yuan, a rise of 930% year-on-year [1] Coking Business - The coking business reported revenue of 3.12 billion yuan, down 34.76%, with costs matching revenue at 3.12 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit for the coking segment was a loss of 48.75 million yuan, a decline of 269% year-on-year [1] Q2 Performance and Market Outlook - The decline in Q2 performance was primarily attributed to falling coal prices, with the average price of coking coal rising by 24.7% to 1,074 yuan/ton in Q3 2025 [2] - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.036 yuan per share, totaling approximately 204.38 million yuan, which is 20.16% of the net profit for H1 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 35.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 22.44%, followed by slight increases in subsequent years [2] - Expected net profits are projected at 1.553 billion yuan for 2025, down 50.04%, with a recovery anticipated in the following years [2]