Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced mixed results on July 18, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 142.30 points to close at 44,342.19, a decrease of 0.32% [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.57 points to 6,296.79, reflecting a change of -0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 10.01 points to 20,895.66, an increase of 0.05% [1] - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, six sectors declined while five sectors advanced, with the energy and healthcare sectors leading the declines at 0.96% and 0.60%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that new housing starts in June reached 1.321 million units, exceeding market expectations of 1.3 million and the revised figure of 1.263 million in May [1] - New housing permits also surpassed expectations, totaling 1.397 million in June, higher than the anticipated 1.38 million and the revised 1.394 million in May [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for July was reported at 61.8, above the market expectation of 61.4 and the previous month's figure of 60.7 [2] - The expectation for inflation over the next year decreased from 5% to 4.4%, aligning with market forecasts [2] - Reports indicated that the Trump administration is negotiating to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU imports, with a potential increase to 30% if no trade agreement is reached by August 1 [2] Group 4 - Despite Netflix's second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, the company's stock fell by 5.1% due to forecasts of declining operating margins in the second half of the year [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is in a rebound phase, expected to last for about a month, with a target height of around 3,400 points, followed by a potential second adjustment to around 3,200 points later in June to July [1][5][8] - Compared to 2018-2019, the current economic situation has improved, with a stronger RMB exchange rate and a domestic policy cycle leaning towards stabilizing or even increasing leverage [1][6] - The market is still in a bull market cycle, with tariff shocks being likened to historical black swan events, suggesting a potential recovery of losses from mid-March to early April [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The rebound is primarily driven by policy expectations and the potential for US-China negotiations, with the market likely to recover most of the declines from late March to early April [2][12] - The current economic conditions are significantly better than in 2018-2019, with improvements in consumer and growth industry profits, and a stabilizing manufacturing sector [6][9] - The market's structural profit-making effect remains, with increasing opportunities in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [1][9] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The second adjustment in the market is expected to occur due to the lingering impact of tariffs on corporate profits, despite the market having recovered some index-level impacts [2][5][8] - The current growth stock bull market differs from historical patterns, suggesting a need for internal switching between high and low growth stocks, and a phased allocation to value themes to manage volatility [14][15] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with growth potential and stable performance, such as new consumption, military, non-ferrous metals, and banking [11][10] Future Market Predictions - The market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with a potential peak around 3,400 points before a second adjustment to approximately 3,200 points [5][16] - The sustainability of the current rebound is contingent on the outcomes of US-China negotiations and domestic policy developments, with close monitoring required for timely strategy adjustments [12][16]