而通胀数据方面，10月CPI由降转涨，PPI降幅收窄，表明内需修复进行时，价格预期逐步企稳。国家 统计局公布数据显示，随着扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动，10月CPI环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第6个月扩大。受国内 部分行业供需关系改善、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，10月PPI环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%， 为年内首次上涨；同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，连续第3个月收窄。 海外方面，避险情绪升温令全球股市回撤。上周海外市场遭遇几大事件扰动——对AI泡沫化的担忧、 联邦政府"关门"时间破历史记录、最高法院对IEEPA关税判决带来的不确定性、美元流动性收紧，共同 带动市场避险情绪大幅走高，美股大跌，美债利率走势震荡。 上周A股市场整体稳中有升，主要指数涨多跌少，结构性分化持续显现，成长板块整体表现平淡，而价 值风格表现相对突出。行业上，电力设备行业继续领涨，钢铁、化工、建材、环保、公用等周期行业连 续两周上涨；计算机、医药、美容护理、非银等行业跌幅较大，且计算机、医药、非银、汽车的周环比 由涨转跌。 宏观分 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251109 美国联邦政府停摆时长创历史新高 2025 年 11 月 09 日 ◼ 政府停摆：停摆时间创历史新高，对经济的负面影响开始显现。截至 11 月 9 日，美国联邦政府停摆时间已达 40 天，超越 2018 年底至 2019 年 初停摆 35 天的历史记录。目前博彩网站预期本次美国政府停摆将持续 约 50 天，于 11 月 20 日结束。持续的政府停摆除了导致非农、GDP 等 关键数据缺失外，也开始对经济产生更大负面影响。具体来看，①公务 员薪资等政府发放收入无法按期支付导致消费疲软。美国居民收支平衡 表显示，居民收入中有 60%是薪酬，10%由政府部门发放，而支出中有 80%用于消费。因此连续两个月的政府停摆导致的公务员欠薪，一定程 度也对美国消费带来负面影响，加剧经济下行压力。②财政部现金余额 TGA 继续增加，形成紧财政、紧流动的效果。政府停摆导致财政持续 融资但无法支出，TGA 规模从 8500 亿的合理水平提升至 1 万亿美元。 由于市场 RRP 已接近耗尽，美联储缩表结束仍要等待至 12 月 1 日，因 此缩表持续、RRP 接近耗尽、TGA ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 美国政府停摆进入第37天，非农数据连续第二次缺席。 宏观数据真空叠加财政僵局，市场一度恐慌。 不过，参议院民主党人提出解决方案，美股盘中情绪迅速修复，道指由跌转涨。 本周，美股科技股迎来自4月以来最惨一周。 纳指全周跌超3%，微软八连跌，以英伟达为首的八家AI龙头的市值合计蒸发约8000亿美元，AI板块单 周蒸发市值接近1万亿美元。 01 昨夜，美股突变 美股昨夜再度大幅震荡。 在非农数据连续第二次缺席的背景下，最新的11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至三年来最低水平。政府停摆、物价高企，让消费者对未来经济和 个人财务都愈发悲观。 消息一出，美股盘初高开后急转直下，道指一度跌超300点。但随着"参议院民主党人或将提出结束政府停摆提案"的消息传出，市场情绪回暖，三大 指数上演V型反转。 截至收盘，道指涨0.16%，标普500涨0.13%，纳指跌0.21%。 不过，全周来看，纳指录得自4月以来最差单周表现，标普500也一度跌破50日均线，科技股的疲态依旧明显。 大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌近4%，谷歌跌超2%，万得美国科技七巨头指数全周跌0.56%。 热门中概股同样承压，小鹏汽 ...

公司点评 全球市场观察 2025 年 11 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,952 | -0.79 | 29.37 | | 恒生国企 | 9,173 | -0.92 | 25.83 | | 恒生科技 | 5,818 | -1.76 | 30.22 | | 上证综指 | 3,960 | -0.41 | 18.15 | | 深证综指 | 2,487 | -1.34 | 27.04 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,134 | -1.96 | 46.34 | | 美国道琼斯 | 47,085 | -0.53 | 10.67 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,772 | -1.17 | 15.13 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,349 | -2.04 | 20.91 | | 德国 DAX | 23,949 | -0.76 | 20. ...

Group 1 - Oracle's revenue for Q1 FY2026 increased by 12% to $14.9 billion, with cloud computing revenue growing by 28% to $7.2 billion, while software revenue declined by 1% to $5.7 billion, indicating mixed performance [2] - Oracle signed four contracts worth several billion dollars with three clients in Q1, and expects to sign more contracts in the coming months, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) potentially exceeding $500 billion [2] - Following the earnings report, Oracle's stock surged by nearly 36%, marking the largest single-day increase in its history, adding $244 billion to its market capitalization [2] Group 2 - The market is betting on companies increasing AI investments and building data centers, with Nvidia and OpenAI leading the charge, the former valued at approximately $4.4 trillion and the latter exceeding $800 billion [3] - Concerns are rising among investors and entrepreneurs about a potential AI bubble, which could become a significant global economic risk [5] Group 3 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the presence of some bubble-like conditions in the AI sector but distinguished OpenAI's genuine advancements in technology and business development [6][7] - OpenAI is involved in complex partnerships with major tech companies, including Nvidia and AMD, which intertwine capital and computational resources, potentially inflating revenue expectations [8] Group 4 - Experts are wary of the potential distortion of true demand in the AI sector due to complex financing arrangements, with some transactions being labeled as "round-tripping" or "vendor financing" [9] - Despite rapid revenue growth, OpenAI has yet to achieve profitability, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [10] Group 5 - TSMC reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to nearly 35%, signaling strong AI demand [10] - TSMC's chairman noted robust demand from AI clients, with a significant increase in token processing volumes, indicating high-frequency adoption of AI technologies [10] Group 6 - Historical parallels are drawn between the current AI investment surge and the late 1990s internet bubble, with concerns that excessive capital inflow may outpace actual demand [12] - The AI sector faces a dilemma of whether to expand production or adopt a wait-and-see approach, which tests the judgment of management and investors [13]

Group 1: Oracle's Financial Performance - Oracle's revenue grew by 12% to $14.9 billion in the first fiscal quarter of 2026, with cloud computing revenue increasing by 28% to $7.2 billion [1] - Cloud applications (SaaS) revenue reached $3.8 billion, growing by 11%, while software revenue declined by 1% to $5.7 billion, indicating mixed overall performance [1] - Oracle signed contracts worth billions with three clients in the first quarter, and expects to secure more multi-billion dollar contracts in the coming months, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) potentially exceeding $500 billion [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and AI Investment - The market is betting on companies increasing AI investments and building data centers, with Nvidia and OpenAI leading the charge [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately $4.4 trillion, while OpenAI's valuation has risen to over $800 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence [2] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble are growing among investors and industry professionals, with fears that the current AI hype could lead to significant economic risks [4] Group 3: OpenAI's Position and Industry Dynamics - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, acknowledged the presence of some bubble-like conditions in the AI sector but emphasized that OpenAI is experiencing genuine advancements in technology and business [5][6] - OpenAI's partnerships with major tech companies like Nvidia and AMD are creating complex interdependencies in the industry, with significant investments flowing into AI infrastructure [6][7] - Despite rapid revenue growth, OpenAI has yet to achieve profitability, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [7] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to nearly 35%, signaling strong AI demand [8] - TSMC's role as a key manufacturer for high-end AI chips positions it favorably in the growing AI market, with strong signals from clients regarding demand [8] Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current AI investment surge is reminiscent of the late 1990s internet bubble, but experts suggest it may not pose a systemic risk [10] - Historical lessons from the internet bubble indicate that while AI valuations may correct, the foundational infrastructure being built could support future growth [10] - Companies in the AI sector face a dilemma between scaling operations and managing costs, with potential implications for their valuations and market positions [11]

记者丨易妍君 编辑丨巫燕玲 人工智能领域的技术跃迁，在全球范围内掀起了一轮AI投资热潮，尤其是美股AI公司成为炙手可热的 明星。 不过，近期，部分海外投资者开始担心AI产业泡沫化的问题，美股AI板块波动加大。 "对于投资人来说，当前最大的不确定性是资产全面泡沫化。不仅仅是美国AI科技相关的公司，以及中 国市场上出现的一系列新行业，很多人看不懂它们的估值，因为是一种新模式。但不确定性本身孕育着 未来的机会。"9月25日，莲华资产管理首席投资官、管理合伙人洪灝在2025年《财富》世界500强峰会 上表示。 市场的核心分歧在于，眼前这场史无前例的AI投入，究竟是一次能带来长期回报的合理押注，还是一 场终将破裂的资本狂欢。 责任编辑：王珂 并且，中国的科技公司很明显已经走出来了。不过，因为技术上的"卡脖子"，以及起点较低，要走的路 还很长。 在洪灝看来，目前大家谈论的AI泡沫，主要还是在看科技公司的估值。科技公司的估值从年初到现在 是变得便宜了，而不是变得更贵。因为它的盈利增长远远快于股票上涨的速度，导致其估值反而在下 降。这是新旧技术交替时必然出现的现象。因此，现在去说AI已全面泡沫化，还为时过早。 "其实，我希望 ...

记者丨易妍君 并且，中国的科技公司很明显已经走出来了。不过，因为技术上的"卡脖子"，以及起点较低，要走的路还很长。 编辑丨巫燕玲 人工智能领域的技术跃迁，在全球范围内掀起了一轮AI投资热潮，尤其是美股AI公司成为炙手可热的明星。 不过，近期，部分海外投资者开始担心AI产业泡沫化的问题，美股AI板块波动加大。 市场的核心分歧在于，眼前这场史无前例的AI投入，究竟是一次能带来长期回报的合理押注，还是一场终将破裂的资 本狂欢。 "对于投资人来说，当前最大的不确定性是资产全面泡沫化。不仅仅是美国AI科技相关的公司，以及中国市场上出现的 一系列新行业，很多人看不懂它们的估值，因为是一种新模式。但不确定性本身孕育着未来的机会。" 9月25日，莲华 资产管理首席投资官、管理合伙人洪灝在2025年《财富》世界500强峰会上表示。 他认为，新的生产力发展过程中，加上充沛的流动性，全面泡沫化基本上是大概率事件，但其中产生的投资回报和机 会值得把握。 图片来源：2025年《财富》世界500强峰会 洪灝谈道，在最近几个财报季，可以看到美国的高科技公司，其盈利增速仍在加快。同时，一些科技巨头的现金流非 常大。科技企业财务报表的不断改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm technology is experiencing unprecedented demand, with significant implications for the semiconductor industry and TSMC's revenue growth [2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Technology - TSMC is set to mass-produce 2nm chips in H2 2024, which is expected to drive approximately NT$73 trillion in global product value over the next five years [2]. - The anticipated revenue for TSMC in 2024 is NT$2.8943 trillion, a 2.79 times increase from NT$762.8 billion in 2014, with a gross margin rising from 49.5% to 56.1% [3]. - Major clients such as AMD, MediaTek, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Meta are actively pursuing 2nm technology for high-end products, indicating strong market interest [2][3]. Group 2: Future Developments - TSMC plans to build four 1.4nm wafer fabs in the Zhongke Phase II park, with the first expected to begin risk production by the end of 2027 and mass production in H2 2028 [4][5]. - The initial monthly production capacity for the 1.4nm process is projected to be around 50,000 wafers [6]. - The Zhongke Phase II expansion will also accommodate other semiconductor-related companies, enhancing the local supply chain ecosystem [8].