行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下以色列和伊朗勉强同意停火协议，同时美联储主席 鲍威尔国会作证时表示经济就业韧性使得美联储有条件继续按兵不动以观察关税 政策对通胀的真实影响，隔夜伦敦黄金一度回调至 3295 美元/盎司；但消息称美 国空袭并未摧毁伊朗的核心核能力而仅可能将其进程延后数月，且鲍威尔表示若 通胀确实受控则美联储愿意更早而不是更晚降息，因此伦敦黄金小幅反弹至 3300 美元/盎司上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a clear growth trajectory in the short, medium, and long term, with potential for both volume and price increases in gold and silver [5][9]. Core Views - The dual catalysts of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to sustain upward momentum in gold and silver prices. In the medium term, "Trump 2.0" may become the primary driver in the gold market during a 90-day tariff pause, with expectations of tariff increases, extended tax cuts, and "stagflation" providing strong support for rising gold prices. In the long term, these dual catalysts will continue to drive prices through 2025, supported by central bank reserves amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [5][57][65]. - The company is a domestic leader in silver mining, having acquired several gold mining assets, which positions it well for future growth. As of the end of 2024, the company has identified approximately 12,000 tons of silver and 34 tons of gold, with an annual mining capacity nearing 2 million tons [6][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's closing price is 13.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9.28 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 8.97 billion yuan. The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 45.60%, and the net asset value per share is 4.40 yuan [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.498 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 576 million yuan, reflecting a 47.74% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.84 yuan [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has a clear growth path for production from its upcoming mines, with several projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2027. Key projects include the Honglin Mining and Yindu Mining, which are anticipated to start production in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][36][40]. - The company is actively pursuing resource acquisitions to enhance its growth potential, with plans to complete at least one acquisition project by 2025 [11][41]. Profitability and Performance Recovery - The company experienced a significant recovery in 2024, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 163.56% increase year-on-year, driven by the completion of technical upgrades at its subsidiaries and rising base metal prices. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 33.92% year-on-year [43][44]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a robust resource base with high-grade deposits, particularly in the Daxinganling region, which supports its strong profitability. The ongoing construction of new mines is expected to further enhance production capacity [27][30][33].

证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 方皓 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 区域局势缓和短期压制金价，不改长期看多逻辑 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/17） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：黄金价格持续震荡。近两周，伦敦现货黄金下跌 2.05%至 3182.95 美 元/盎司，上期所黄金下跌 3.65%至 751.80 元/克，沪金持仓量上涨 5.68%至 43.71 万手；伦敦现货白银下跌 0.71%至 32.14 美元/盎司，上期所白银下跌 ...