1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - environment and the precious metals market. The Fed's dovish rate cut boosts the market, and the precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and monetary policies. The report expects precious metal prices to continue to be strong in 2026 [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - China's exports show strong resilience. In November 2025, exports were $3303.5 billion, up 5.9% year - on - year; imports were $2186.7 billion, up 1.9% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, cumulative exports were $34147.3 billion, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative trade surplus was $10758.5 billion, up 21.2% year - on - year [4]. - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6][7]. - Overseas, in the first two months of fiscal year 2026 (October - November 2025), the US fiscal deficit decreased by 26.7% year - on - year. The US job market shows low liquidity [8]. 3.1.2 Focus - From December 9 - 10, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 3.5 - 3.75%. The Fed also decided to buy short - term Treasury bonds as needed [9]. - The Fed expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace, with employment and inflation under pressure. The market believes the Fed may continue to cut rates in the medium - term [12][19]. 3.1.3 Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 - 11, 2025, set the policy tone for 2026, including implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and focusing on eight key tasks [22][23][24]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate and recover in 2026, with a core fluctuation range of 96 - 108. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be range - bound, with a core fluctuation range of 6.92 - 7.25 against the US dollar [25][26]. - In 2026, the US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term rates falling and medium - and long - term rates oscillating in the range of 3.8% - 4.5% for the 10 - year Treasury yield [28]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of December 11, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1050.8 tons, 22.2% higher than the May 2024 low, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16083 tons, 20.6% higher than the May 2024 low [30]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the bull market in gold. In the medium - term, economic risks make gold prices strong. In the short - term, gold and silver prices have fluctuated recently [33]. - In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [36]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The correlation between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real yields, and silver has weakened, while the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened [37][38].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Due to the US July PPI exceeding market expectations and officials' statements, market expectations for a 50BP Fed rate cut in September have cooled. London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz. Trump's new policies boost gold's safe - haven demand. Gold volatility is rising, and the medium - term upward trend remains good. It may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz. Uncertainty in international trade has decreased, but currency system restructuring and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. Speculative funds entered the silver and platinum markets in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. The long - term bull market in gold is supported by currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market by economic weakness and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also mean high volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz. Central bank easing may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling [5]. Group 4: Section Summaries Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz due to PPI data and officials' statements. Trump's policies boost gold's safe - haven demand [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.63, down 0.36%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9222, down 0.89%; Gold T + D closed at 773.09, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9188, down 0.93% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz since late April. International trade uncertainty has decreased, but currency system restructuring and rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86 [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, dispelling expectations of a 50BP rate cut in September [17]. - US Treasury Secretary said conditions are favorable for a 25BP rate cut first and then acceleration. Some Fed officials said a 50BP rate cut in September does not match the current economic situation [17]. - Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, and Putin praised US efforts and proposed a nuclear arms control agreement [17]

Report Overview - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry dated June 11, 2025, provided by the Macro-Finance Team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silver price surge driven by pure capital is unlikely to last, and investors are advised not to go long with heavy positions. Conservative investors can consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on gold and short on silver after the silver momentum weakens [4] - Gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good medium-term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long position with a medium to low position [4] - The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term surges and high price - to - earnings ratios mean higher volatility. Investors should avoid full - position chasing, random top - guessing, or blind short - selling. Short - inclined traders can focus on the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Despite the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the Los Angeles riots caused by immigration arrests and the confrontation among US government departments supported the gold price. London gold bottomed out and rebounded around $3300/ounce [4] - Since June, speculative funds have aggressively gone long on silver. Overnight, London silver reached $36.9/ounce, and the annual silver price increase exceeded that of gold. However, the silver price weakened during the Asian session on the 10th [4] Medium - term Market - In April, Trump's reciprocal tariff measures triggered a global financial market tsunami. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar and briefly break through $3500/ounce. Although the gold price corrected from its high due to reduced emotional impact and marginal improvement in global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good [5] - Trump's determination to promote domestic and foreign reforms based on the America - First principle remains unchanged. The US International Trade Court's ruling cannot completely stop his tariff weaponization actions, bringing greater uncertainty to the market [5] - After the black - swan events, the market will face the impact of the accelerated restructuring of the global trade and currency system. The risks of US and global economic recession need to be resolved by central bank easing or government fiscal stimulus [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.48 | 778.21 | 771.29 | 776.86 | 0.05% | 419,572 | 587 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,926 | 9,034 | 8,878 | 8,905 | - 0.24% | 1,008,144 | - 40,090 | | Gold T + D | 772.01 | 773.80 | 766.31 | 772.61 | 0.08% | 229,498 | 13,198 | | Silver T + D | 8,888 | 8,993 | 8,840 | 8,883 | - 0.06% | 3,633,502 | 74,166 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US military will temporarily deploy about 700 Marines to Los Angeles until more National Guard troops arrive. California Governor Newsom criticized this move, and the state's Attorney General sued Trump, accusing him of overstepping his authority [17] - In May, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1.932 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a 6% increase compared to the highest level in May 2018, showing a strong growth trend [17] - European Central Bank Governing Council member and Austrian Central Bank President Holzmann said that unless economic data deteriorates, the ECB's current pause in interest - rate cuts may last a long time. If data worsens, the ECB may cut rates further this year [17]