行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 俄乌战争停火前景削弱贵金属的避险需求，同时市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔 可能不会在周末 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上对第二阶段降息步伐给出清晰指 引，美元指数反弹至 98.3 而伦敦黄金回调至 3320 美元/盎司附近，波动性更大的 白银则回撤到 37.2 美元/盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组 且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中 线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-35 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry dated June 11, 2025, provided by the Macro-Finance Team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silver price surge driven by pure capital is unlikely to last, and investors are advised not to go long with heavy positions. Conservative investors can consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on gold and short on silver after the silver momentum weakens [4] - Gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good medium-term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long position with a medium to low position [4] - The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term surges and high price - to - earnings ratios mean higher volatility. Investors should avoid full - position chasing, random top - guessing, or blind short - selling. Short - inclined traders can focus on the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Despite the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the Los Angeles riots caused by immigration arrests and the confrontation among US government departments supported the gold price. London gold bottomed out and rebounded around $3300/ounce [4] - Since June, speculative funds have aggressively gone long on silver. Overnight, London silver reached $36.9/ounce, and the annual silver price increase exceeded that of gold. However, the silver price weakened during the Asian session on the 10th [4] Medium - term Market - In April, Trump's reciprocal tariff measures triggered a global financial market tsunami. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar and briefly break through $3500/ounce. Although the gold price corrected from its high due to reduced emotional impact and marginal improvement in global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good [5] - Trump's determination to promote domestic and foreign reforms based on the America - First principle remains unchanged. The US International Trade Court's ruling cannot completely stop his tariff weaponization actions, bringing greater uncertainty to the market [5] - After the black - swan events, the market will face the impact of the accelerated restructuring of the global trade and currency system. The risks of US and global economic recession need to be resolved by central bank easing or government fiscal stimulus [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.48 | 778.21 | 771.29 | 776.86 | 0.05% | 419,572 | 587 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,926 | 9,034 | 8,878 | 8,905 | - 0.24% | 1,008,144 | - 40,090 | | Gold T + D | 772.01 | 773.80 | 766.31 | 772.61 | 0.08% | 229,498 | 13,198 | | Silver T + D | 8,888 | 8,993 | 8,840 | 8,883 | - 0.06% | 3,633,502 | 74,166 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US military will temporarily deploy about 700 Marines to Los Angeles until more National Guard troops arrive. California Governor Newsom criticized this move, and the state's Attorney General sued Trump, accusing him of overstepping his authority [17] - In May, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1.932 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a 6% increase compared to the highest level in May 2018, showing a strong growth trend [17] - European Central Bank Governing Council member and Austrian Central Bank President Holzmann said that unless economic data deteriorates, the ECB's current pause in interest - rate cuts may last a long time. If data worsens, the ECB may cut rates further this year [17]