1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - environment and the precious metals market. The Fed's dovish rate cut boosts the market, and the precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and monetary policies. The report expects precious metal prices to continue to be strong in 2026 [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - China's exports show strong resilience. In November 2025, exports were $3303.5 billion, up 5.9% year - on - year; imports were $2186.7 billion, up 1.9% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, cumulative exports were $34147.3 billion, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative trade surplus was $10758.5 billion, up 21.2% year - on - year [4]. - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6][7]. - Overseas, in the first two months of fiscal year 2026 (October - November 2025), the US fiscal deficit decreased by 26.7% year - on - year. The US job market shows low liquidity [8]. 3.1.2 Focus - From December 9 - 10, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 3.5 - 3.75%. The Fed also decided to buy short - term Treasury bonds as needed [9]. - The Fed expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace, with employment and inflation under pressure. The market believes the Fed may continue to cut rates in the medium - term [12][19]. 3.1.3 Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 - 11, 2025, set the policy tone for 2026, including implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and focusing on eight key tasks [22][23][24]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate and recover in 2026, with a core fluctuation range of 96 - 108. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be range - bound, with a core fluctuation range of 6.92 - 7.25 against the US dollar [25][26]. - In 2026, the US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term rates falling and medium - and long - term rates oscillating in the range of 3.8% - 4.5% for the 10 - year Treasury yield [28]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of December 11, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1050.8 tons, 22.2% higher than the May 2024 low, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16083 tons, 20.6% higher than the May 2024 low [30]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the bull market in gold. In the medium - term, economic risks make gold prices strong. In the short - term, gold and silver prices have fluctuated recently [33]. - In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [36]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The correlation between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real yields, and silver has weakened, while the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price may fluctuate strongly due to tightened raw material supply, stable support at the bottom, and reduced pressure on non - ferrous metals from the Fed's dovish interest rate cut. [1] - **Zinc**: The zinc price may rebound in the short term due to the Fed's dovish interest rate cut, but the weak demand restricts the upside space, and there is a risk of a high - level decline after the positive news is exhausted. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.59% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose by 0.23% to 17,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 4.29% to 34,885 lots, and the open interest decreased by 9.06% to 35,754 lots. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 235,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 14.79% to 17,711 tons. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Last week, more smelters had maintenance, especially delivery - brand ones, causing a decline in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, some smelters also had maintenance plans. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low levels with a light position. [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.17% to 23,040 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.35% to 22,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 21.27% to 93,062 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.02% to 88,499 lots. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 60,350 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.59% to 52,802 tons. [1] - **Fundamentals**: The mine supply is tight, TC is continuously decreasing, and the smelter production cut range is expanding. The export window occasionally opens, and the supply is shrinking. The demand is still weak, with reduced downstream procurement due to cold weather and environmental protection impacts. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rally and subsequent correction. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price may fluctuate strongly due to tightened raw material supply and reduced pressure on non - ferrous metals from the Fed's dovish rate cut. The trading strategy is to try to go long at low prices [1]. - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to the Fed's dovish rate cut, but the poor demand will limit the upside. The trading strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities when the price rises and then corrects [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975.00 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,115.00 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis was - 140.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [1]. Market Conditions - The daily recycling volume of most northern recycling enterprises decreased significantly compared with the same period last year due to lower lead prices and the off - season of battery scrapping [1]. - The开工 of primary lead and some secondary lead smelters declined. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakened, while the automobile battery market was approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. Zinc Market Price Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 23,000.00 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 23,075.00 yuan/ton, up 0.02% [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 75.00 yuan/ton, down 125.00 yuan [1]. Market Conditions - In September 2025, Bolivia's zinc concentrate production was 43,100 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the total production was 376,300 metal tons [1]. - In September 2025, Peru exported 148,600 physical tons of zinc concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 22%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 1,581,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [1]. - In October 2025, Chile exported 1300 tons of zinc concentrate. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 50,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [1]. - The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, processing fees were continuously reduced, the smelter production reduction range expanded, and the demand was weak [1].