粮节奏偏慢，易商出货也较谨慎，企业厂门到货量维持低位，价格重心继续上移。盘面来看，近期玉米期 价连续走高，维持偏强态势。 | 观点总结（ | 随着节后玉米淀粉企业生产的逐步恢复，玉米淀粉行业开机率陆续升高，供应端压力有所增加，库存仍呈现上升趋势。截至3月4日 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量121.9万吨，较上周增加2.10万吨，周增幅1.75%，月增幅1.75%；年同比降幅11.35%。不过， | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 下游需求也逐步恢复，企业签单走货较上周好转，玉米淀粉供需结构尚可。盘面来看，受玉米偏强支撑，淀粉市场同步偏强震荡。 | 玉米系产业日报 2026-03-05 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | | | | | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Corn - The supply - demand pattern of US corn is relatively loose, which continues to restrain the international corn market price, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [2] - In the domestic market, over 60% of corn has been sold by farmers in the Northeast. As the Spring Festival approaches, corn market trading is gradually weakening. Most enterprises have established safety inventories and the restocking is nearing completion. The price difference between Northeast and North - China corn has narrowed, and the advantage of outward transportation has declined. Some drying towers have stopped purchasing, and the spot price is slightly weak [2] - In the North - China and Huanghuai regions, the grass - roots trading is relatively stable. Low - quality corn has been mostly sold, and traders' willingness to stock has increased. Although the arrival volume of processing enterprises has decreased, it has increased compared with the previous period. The grain source distribution is uneven, and most enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling is gradually coming to an end. The purchase price is mainly fluctuating slightly [2] - The corn futures market was previously boosted by the strong spot market and showed a strong shock. However, there is still significant upward pressure, and the short - term high has declined [2] Corn Starch - As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics is about to stop, and downstream enterprises are actively picking up goods. In addition, a few enterprises in Hebei and Henan have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection reasons, driving the industry inventory to continue to decline. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons from the previous week, with a weekly decline of 3.21% and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [3] - The corn starch futures price has slightly declined recently, generally maintaining a shock, and short - term observation is recommended [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2264 yuan/ton, with a change of - 24; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2517 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 552,893 lots, a decrease of 60,108; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 136,878 lots, a decrease of 5,397 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 128,297 lots, a decrease of 2,714; for corn starch: - 29,140 lots, a decrease of 2,400 [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 53,570 lots, no change; for corn starch: 11,161 lots, no change [2] - The spread between the main CS - C contracts: 307 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 [2] External Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 429 cents/bushel, with a change of 0.25; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,707,454 contracts, an increase of 39,668 [2] - Non - commercial net long positions in CBOT corn: - 31,671 contracts, an increase of 20,033 [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,368.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,610 yuan/ton, no change [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,790 yuan/ton, no change [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,046.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86; international freight for imported corn: 54 US dollars/ton, no change [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 104.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55; basis of the main corn starch contract: 93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 425.53 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons; in Argentina: 53 million tons; in China: 295 million tons; in Ukraine: 29 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons) [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares; in China: 44.3 million hectares [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports: 50.50 million tons, a decrease of 19.20 million tons; at northern ports: 180 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons [2] - Deep - processing corn inventory: 440.50 million tons, an increase of 56.70 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory: 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production: 3,008.60 million tons, an increase of 30.70 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days: 31.93 days, an increase of 0.61 days [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption: 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate: 57.43%, an increase of 0.1%; starch enterprise operating rate: 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 46 yuan/ton, no change; in Hebei: 63 yuan/ton, no change; in Jilin: - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.26%, a decrease of 0.87%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.99%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56% [2] Industry News - As of Tuesday, the first - season corn harvesting in Brazil's Parana state has reached 10%, up 7 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than 11% in the same period last year and far lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [2] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect that the net export sales of US corn for the week ending January 29, 2026, will be between 800,000 and 2 million tons [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday by Mysteel [3]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - Globally, the U.S. corn is in the export season with high supply pressure, and the global and U.S. corn supply - demand is still relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the U.S. corn's 2025/26 carry - over inventory forecast supports U.S. corn prices [2] - In China's Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in December supports the market bottom, but high prices limit buyers' enthusiasm, and the release of grain sources due to rumors leads to a price decline In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers' selling enthusiasm increases slightly, and prices fluctuate slightly [2] - Corn futures prices have fallen from high levels recently after an unexpected increase, with high short - term volatility, so it's recommended to wait and see [2] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure As of December 17, the national corn starch inventory has increased However, the upcoming festivals may boost demand, and the price increase of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3] - Affected by the decline in corn prices, corn starch prices have also fallen, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2206 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2512 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 16 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 988,605 lots, up 543,683 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 132,098 lots, down 5,695 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 96,862 lots, up 6,528 lots; for corn starch: - 33,511 lots, down 193 lots [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 54,440 lots, down 1,790 lots; for corn starch: 2,500 lots, unchanged [2] - CS - C price difference of the main contract: 333 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 436 cents/bu, down 3.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,616,139 contracts, up 13,001 contracts [2] - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 120,900 contracts, up 77,887 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,350.78 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,120.47 yuan/ton, down 2.11 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - International freight of imported corn: 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; basis of the main corn starch contract: 88 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 144.78 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 466 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,517.78 yuan/ton, down 0.89 yuan; price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 725 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - Price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the U.S. (monthly): 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in China (monthly): 295 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 31.5 tons, down 20.2 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 294 tons, up 18.6 tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 152 tons, down 11 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 107.4 tons, up 2.5 tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 tons, up 30 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19.17 tons, up 6.39 tons [2] - Monthly feed production: 2,957 tons, down 171.7 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong (daily): - 8 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei (daily): 74 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 141.67 tons, down 0.09 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin (daily): - 53 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 68.22%, down 2.06%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 62.31%, down 0.53% [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 11.72%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.45%, down 0.03% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 1.48%, down 7.11%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 5.17%, down 3.41% [2] Industry News - On December 16, CGSGB invited bids for the sale of imported corn, with 103,129 tons of 2021 U.S. corn planned for auction, all of which were sold The auction reserve price was 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,070 - 2,085 yuan/ton, and the premium was 70 - 85 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market prices are suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose supply - demand conditions, but the strong US domestic corn spot market provides support [2]. - In the domestic market, in the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell, and buyers are active. Deep - processing enterprises' prices are likely to rise. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market volume is increasing, and processing enterprises' purchase prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong - side shock [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw materials and rising industry operating rates, but strong downstream demand and smooth enterprise sales lead to a decline in inventory. Starch futures prices also maintain a strong - side shock [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,287 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions: 938,213 lots for yellow corn and 229,123 lots for corn starch, with an increase of 3,174 lots for corn starch [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 184,321 lots for corn starch and - 40,210 lots for corn, a decrease of 7,515 lots for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 58,664 lots for yellow corn and 0 lots for corn starch; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 351 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents; total CBOT corn positions are 1,644,250 lots, down 11,481 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are 37,621 lots, down 83,343 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Changchun is 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Weifang is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price is 2,095.98 yuan/ton, down 2.33 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main - contract basis is 52 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; corn main - contract basis is - 19.27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 61.63 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 601 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Predicted corn planting areas: 42.71 million hectares in the US, 13.1 million hectares in Brazil, 5.3 million hectares in Argentina, and 29.5 million hectares in China [2]. - Predicted corn yields: 364.4 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, 44.3 million tons in China, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 59.9 million tons in southern ports, down 2.9 million tons; 140 million tons in northern ports, up 6 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 105.4 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. - Corn imports are 6 million tons, down 2 million tons; corn starch exports are 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days are 27.83 days, up 1.6 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 142.34 million tons, up 4.03 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 71.34%, up 1.89%; starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.7%, up 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility is 8.59%, up 0.11% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 12.11%, up 1.94%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.11%, up 1.94% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazilian 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 138 million tons, 2 million tons lower than the previous forecast [2]. - Analysts expect US 2025/26 corn export net sales from October 30, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 2.5 million tons [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Core Viewpoint - As the weather in North China improves, the focus returns to the pressure of new - season supply. The spot market is stable, while the futures market shows a downward adjustment. The price may decline later due to selling pressure. Starch sales are improving, but the inventory is still high. The CBOT corn futures rose 0.95% on Wednesday due to expected lower yields [2] Key Points by Category Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Prices in various ports and regions remained stable on October 23, 2025. For example, the price in Jinzhou Port was 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main continuous contract increased by 11 to 47 [3] - **Futures Market**: On October 22, most corn futures contracts closed lower. For instance, the corn 01 contract dropped 11 yuan to 2133 yuan, a 0.51% decline. Some corn starch futures contracts showed small fluctuations, like the corn starch 11 contract rising 11 yuan to 2410 yuan, a 0.46% increase [3] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The number of state - reserve granary purchase points increased, aiming to support prices. The meteorological problems in North China weakened the downward price momentum, making it difficult to push down prices [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. With the dissipation of weather disturbances, the focus is back on supply pressure, increasing short - term price pressure [5] Other Market Data - **US Market**: On October 23, 2025, the CBOT corn main continuous contract price was 423.75, up 4 with a 0.95% increase. The import profit of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico was 200.69 yuan/ton, and that from the US West Coast was 353.72 yuan/ton [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, domestic imported corn auctions and wheat for feed continue to supplement the market, and spring and summer corn are also being listed, increasing market circulation. However, downstream enterprises have long - term contracts, so short - term purchasing power is weak, and corn prices are oscillating at a low level. Some new - season corn in domestic regions is listed early, and the opening purchase price is slightly higher year - on - year, which is beneficial to market sentiment. Corn futures prices rebounded from the low level but lack continuous upward momentum, and recently, bulls tend to take profits and prices have declined, so it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, the current northern raw - material corn is in the new - old alternation stage. Some enterprises have new overhauls due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the market is weak with enterprises in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is low. Supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, reducing inventory pressure. However, industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are good, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Affected by the decline of corn and its own poor demand, corn starch prices have weakened recently and are weaker than corn [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2477 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2202 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is 5 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 852554 lots for yellow corn (active contract), down 7872 lots; 210207 lots for corn starch (active contract), up 10807 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 47397 lots for corn and - 43645 lots for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 51874 lots for yellow corn, down 85 lots; 9950 lots for corn starch, up 544 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 200 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417 cents/bushel, down 2.5 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly) is 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 52455 contracts, up 18485 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Factory - gate price of corn starch: 2365.49 yuan/ton in Changchun, down 1.96 yuan/ton; 2800 yuan/ton in Weifang, unchanged; 2730 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, unchanged. Average spot price of corn is 2310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn: CIF price is 1925.56 yuan/ton, down 1.02 yuan/ton; international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 83 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is - 6.96 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: average spot price of wheat is 2426 yuan/ton, up 1.06 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 94 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area and production of corn: in the US, sown area is 398.93 million hectares, up 0.77 million hectares, and production is 35.89 million tons; in Brazil, sown area data is not provided, and production is 131 million tons; in Argentina, sown area data is not provided, and production is 53 million tons; in China, sown area is 295 million hectares, and production is 44.3 million tons; in Ukraine, production is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory: 73.5 million tons in southern ports (weekly), down 3.5 million tons; 271.1 million tons in deep - processing enterprises (weekly), down 23.1 million tons; 156 million tons in northern ports (weekly), down 19 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: total inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 122.6 million tons as of September 10, down 3.9 million tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 3.08%, a monthly decline of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 40.27% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: monthly production is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. Sample feed corn inventory days are 27.63 days (weekly), down 0.5 days [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: - 82 yuan/ton in Shandong, up 3 yuan/ton; - 65 yuan/ton in Hebei, down 2 yuan/ton; - 154 yuan/ton in Jilin, down 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate: 46.21% for alcohol enterprises (weekly), up 3.34%; 47.14% for starch enterprises (weekly), down 0.56% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility of corn: 8.69% for 20 - day (daily), up 0.15%; 6.79% for 60 - day (daily), up 0.14% [2]. - Implied volatility of corn options: 8.79% for at - the - money call options (daily), down 0.1%; 8.79% for at - the - money put options (daily), down 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Analysts expect the weekly export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US corn from September 1 - 4, 2025, may range from 90 to 240 million tons [2]. - From September 1 - 5, Brazil's corn export volume was 130 million tons, compared with 642 million tons in September last year [2]. - As of the week ending September 7, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US corn was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, but lower than 69% of the previous week and higher than 64% of the same period last year [2].