2026年2月2日 周报 期货研究报告 纯碱：新产能投放压力较大，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势以稳为主，企业积极发货，节前下游补库。隆众资讯数据监 测，上周国内纯碱产量78.31万吨，环比增加1.14万吨，涨幅1.47%。纯碱综合产能利用率84.19%，环比下降 2.23%，检修企业少，供应高位。周内国内纯碱厂家库存154.42万吨，周增加2.30万吨，涨幅1.52%，库存窄 幅增加，个别企业增量，纯碱企业待发订单下降，目前维持10+天。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位上升，纯碱下游需求预计近期较稳。下游 浮法玻璃预期本周产量较稳；光伏产品自4月1日起，取消增值税出口退税，光伏玻璃下游拿货量持续加大， 供给本周预计大致稳定，行业仍存降库预期。纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维持高位运 行，新产能投放施压，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价格近期震荡运行，05合约上方压力1250一 线。 关注因素：1.纯碱开工变化；2.新产能投放进度；3.纯碱企业库存变化。 1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily with a slight decline in light soda ash prices of some enterprises and flexible market transactions. The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the pending orders of enterprises have slightly decreased. The profit of soda ash enterprises is not good. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to rise at a high level this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The supply of the industry is expected to be roughly stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction. Under the background of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future, and the new production capacity will put pressure on the market. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 05 contract is at the 1230 line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily, with the weekly output of 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.46%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 86.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38 tons or 3.42%. The pending orders of enterprises are slightly reduced to 12 + days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 days. The profit of soda ash enterprises is not good. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to rise at a high level this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable. The supply of the industry is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper pressure of the 05 contract is at the 1230 line [2]. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new production capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The East China soda ash market was stable last week, with prices adjusted slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market first rose and then fell [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.46%. The output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - alkali method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 96.30 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 22, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 87,210 tons/day, remaining unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 7.47%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 66.31%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. Affected by the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products, the overseas demand for photovoltaic components is increasing, the domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the overseas orders are expected to improve. The short - term export volume of components is expected to increase rapidly, and the component price is expected to rise. Most component enterprises plan to increase component production, with the production in January expected to increase by 4 - 5GW conservatively, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The subsequent component quotations are expected to continue to rise, but the actual transactions are expected to continue to be in a game state. - **Float Glass**: As of January 22, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points. The output this week is expected to be relatively stable compared with last week [10]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 22, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 152.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons [12]. 5. Position Analysis - As of January 23, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 781,892, a decrease of 1,516, and the short positions were 943,479, a decrease of 582. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [14].

Report Title - The report is titled "South China Futures Glass and Soda Ash Industry Weekly Report - Low-level Volatility" [1] Report Date - The report date is December 28, 2025 [2] 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash trends include potential glass production line cold repairs from late December to before the Spring Festival, which impact far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy - end supply disturbances in 2026 cannot be ruled out [2]. - Soda ash is mainly cost - priced. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacities are pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Without a trend of production cuts, its valuation lacks upward elasticity. With the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to have an oversupply situation due to new capacities [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The glass spot is weak, with cold - repair expectations but high middle - reach inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed, including unexpected cold - repair situations and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash trends are unclear, lacking clear signals, and are expected to be volatile. It is advisable to observe [8]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass decreased by 2 yuan on December 28, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass futures increased by 0.96%, 1.13%, and 0.43% respectively on December 26, 2025. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions on December 26, 2025, were 105 in Shahe, 129 in Hubei, 108 in East China, and 109 in South China [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: There was little change in the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions on December 26, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash futures increased by 1.35%, 1.45%, and 0.54% respectively on December 26, 2025 [14][15]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There are still some glass production line cold - repair expectations to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and supply is starting to shrink. The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [15][16]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, with near - term spot pressure. The far - month demand expectation lacks elasticity, and there are differences in the degree of demand decline. New capacities of soda ash are expected to increase long - term supply pressure, and the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations affects the rigid demand for soda ash [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The sales - to - production situation and spot price of glass, as well as the spot transaction situation of soda ash [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Single - Side Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the main 05 contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. The near - term spot pressure of glass is high, and the middle - reach inventory is high. The far - month has expectations of supply cuts and cost increases, but the demand is unclear [19]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 01 contract is approaching delivery. This week, the 5 - 9 spread was mainly volatile, with no clear directional movement due to unclear supply - demand expectations and a wait - and - see attitude from funds [23]. - **Soda Ash**: It maintains a C structure overall. With the launch of new capacities, the long - term pattern may deteriorate again [24]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [40]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,105 yuan/ton [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [47]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 190,000 tons, maintaining a high - expectation level [47]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 154,500 tons. There are still some cold - repair production lines to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [54]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10 tons. The first 1 - million - ton soda ash capacity of the second phase of Alxa (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9. The new 700,000 - ton capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into production in mid - to - late December [58]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the spot pressure remains. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7%. Terminal demand remains weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [61]. - **Soda Ash**: Currently, the total daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,600 tons. With the expectation of further glass cold - repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the inventory days have risen to over 35 days. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November (including imports and exports) is estimated to be - 0.05%. The rigid demand for soda ash weakens slightly month - on - month, and downstream restocks mainly for rigid demand at low prices [74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total manufacturer inventory is 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes, or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [85]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,800 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,900 tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,700 tons. The delivery - warehouse inventory is 395,100 tons (a decrease of 55,200 tons). The total inventory of factory warehouses and delivery warehouses is 1.8336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 116,000 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold - repair of some glass production lines from December to the Spring Festival, the influence of policy on supply, the near - month delivery logic and cost - based pricing of soda ash, and the need to digest the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches and the expected oversupply of soda ash [1]. - The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory. It is recommended to observe and wait, with the 01 contract mainly focusing on warehouse receipt games and the 05 contract more on expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, affecting far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy influence on supply cannot be ruled out, and attention should be paid to changes in next year's supply expectations [1]. - The near - month 01 glass contract follows delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games. Soda ash is priced based on cost. With new production capacity to be put into operation and high - medium production levels, its valuation has limited upward potential without a trend of production reduction. The expected cold - repair of glass may lead to a decline in soda ash's rigid demand [1]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to face oversupply due to new production capacity [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: There are still differences in near - term spot prices. Cold - repair expectations and high inventory in the middle reaches require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold - repair and spot price feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory, so it's advisable to observe [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Prices**: The average price of glass in Shahe on December 20, 2025, was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices in most regions remained stable, with only a few showing slight declines [7][8]. - **Glass Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the glass 05 contract decreased by 21 yuan/ton (- 1.98%), the 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.56%), and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton (- 1.26%) [8]. - **Glass Daily Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions having stable or slightly decreased ratios [9]. - **Soda Ash Spot Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained stable on December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Soda Ash Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the soda ash 05 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), the 09 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), and the 01 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.5%) [10][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [11]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, putting pressure on spot prices. New production capacity of soda ash is expected to be put into operation, increasing long - term supply pressure, and the expected cold - repair of glass may affect the rigid demand for soda ash [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether the industrial policy will have further clear instructions. - The sales, production, and spot prices of glass, as well as the spot trading volume of soda ash [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near the delivery date. The increase in near - term cold - repair of glass and high inventory in the middle reaches lead to differences in the spot market. The far - month market has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 1 - 5 spread of glass has narrowed this week, mainly because of the low valuation of the near - month contract, causing short - sellers to shift to the far - month contract [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall structure of soda ash remains in a C - structure, and the long - term situation may worsen with the release of new production capacity [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas - based glass production lines are in the red, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1110 yuan/ton [35]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [37]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in November was close to 19 tons, maintaining high - level expectations [37]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - side and Projection - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [44]. - **Soda Ash Supply**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates around 102,000 tons. The first 1 - million - ton production line of Alxa Phase II (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9, and the 700,000 - ton new production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into operation in mid - to - late December [47]. 3.5.2 Demand - side and Projection - **Glass Demand**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the terminal demand remains weak. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand from January to December is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7% [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The current rigid demand for soda ash remains stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,700 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 48,800 tons. However, due to the expected cold - repair of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is continuously increasing, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair expectations of photovoltaic glass. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November is estimated to decline by 0.05% [60][61]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass manufacturers is 58.558 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 weight - boxes (+ 0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain at a high level [67]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 727,600 tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons), and the heavy - soda ash inventory is 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons). The inventory in delivery warehouses is 450,300 tons (a decrease of 54,300 tons). The combined inventory of factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9496 million tons, with the upstream inventory being depleted and the downstream mainly replenishing inventory at low prices [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Price**: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - **Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - **Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - **Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - **Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - **Negative Information**: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - **Soda Ash Supply**: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass Demand**: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]