Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the hog price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics - On September 3, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs. The main hog contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 208 lots today, with a holding of about 73,600 lots. The highest price was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,550 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard hogs may strengthen oscillatory. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish view believes that the weight - reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for hog prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish view holds that the farming sector has reduced the weight of hogs, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support the hog price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - On September 3, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day, and the price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.84 yuan/kg. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 55 yuan/ton or 0.4%, the 03 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton or 0.27%, the 05 contract increased by 75 yuan/ton or 0.55%, the 07 contract increased by 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%, the 09 contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton or 0.64%, and the 11 contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, national corn purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends are shown through charts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. There is a likelihood of a monthly increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs provides some support to pig prices. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 2nd, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,076 lots today, with a position of about 73,400 lots. The highest price of the day was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,500 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,595 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **National average live pig slaughter price**: On September 2nd, it was 14.03 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.36%. - **Provincial - level live pig slaughter prices**: In Henan, it was 14.08 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day, a decrease of 1.61%. In Sichuan, it was 13.84 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day, an increase of 1.24%. - **Futures prices**: The prices of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the 01 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.14%; the 11 contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. - **Main contract basis**: In Henan, it was 485 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 29.2% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not repeated here [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On August 27, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 13.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan or 0.88%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan or 0.81% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.85%; the 03 contract was 13235 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.38%; the 05 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.29%; the 07 contract was 14165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 09 contract was 13445 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan or 1.61%; the 11 contract was 13745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan or 78.33% from the previous day [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report shows data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On August 27, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 430 lots [2]. - The short - term decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig contract (LH2511) added 1323 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 71,600 lots. The highest price was 13865 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13700 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13745 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Information - Report Title: "Consumption Support Limited, Spot Market in Oscillatory Adjustment - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market oscillated and adjusted due to insufficient consumption support, while the futures market continued to rise, weakening the basis. The spread between LH9 and LH11 ended its adjustment and rose again [7]. - From a fundamental perspective, sample data from market institutions showed a slight month - on - month increase in the inventory of breeding sows in June, indicating that the process of reducing production capacity was not smooth. The price of piglets rebounded recently, partly due to the recovery of breeding profits stimulating fattening farmers to replenish stocks, and partly due to the reduction in the number of piglets born in June, which may have provided some boost [7]. - In terms of spot, the large - scale enterprises' slaughter plan in July decreased, and the price of fat and standard pigs among small farmers was relatively high, which may lead to continued pressure on farmers to hold back pigs to increase the average weight. The overall supply pressure in July is not large, but the consumption performance lacks highlights. Consumption is expected to increase in August, and the increase in slaughter is limited. It is expected that the spot market will oscillate and adjust before rising seasonally again, but the overall upward space is limited [7]. - The current discount of the futures main contract LH09 to the spot has narrowed, and it will follow the spot market to oscillate strongly in the later stage. Due to the expected increase in future supply, the outlook for more distant contracts is still not optimistic. In terms of operation, go long on LH09 with an oscillatory strategy, and wait for opportunities to short on the distant - month contracts after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live pig spot market oscillated and adjusted last week, and the futures market rose, weakening the basis. The spread between LH9 and LH11 increased again. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly in June, and the price of piglets rebounded. The supply pressure in July is not large, and consumption is expected to increase in August. The spot market may rise seasonally after adjustment, and the futures main contract LH09 will follow the spot to oscillate strongly. Distant - month contracts are not optimistic. Operate by going long on LH09 and waiting to short on distant - month contracts [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - Not elaborated in the provided content 3. Live Pig Futures Market - Not elaborated in the provided content 4. Live Pig Spot Market - Not elaborated in the provided content 5. Live Pig Spot: Basis after Regional and Average Weight Adjustment - On July 9, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2509 at 14,265, the report provided the standard pig average price, weight range, regional premium and discount, standard pig basis, basis for different weight ranges, minimum basis, delivery storage capacity, and delivery speed for various provinces [21]. 6. Live Pig Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs - Not elaborated in the provided content 7. Live Pig Spot: Regional Price Difference - Not elaborated in the provided content 8. Changes in the Inventory of Breeding Sows - Not elaborated in the provided content 9. Changes in Piglets - Not elaborated in the provided content 10. Live Pig Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed Verification - Not elaborated in the provided content 11. Live Pig Slaughter - Not elaborated in the provided content 12. Frozen Meat Market Dynamics - Not elaborated in the provided content 13. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in the provided content 14. Comprehensive Monitoring of Live Pig Average Weight - Not elaborated in the provided content 15. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - The report introduced the reserve response mechanisms under the scenarios of excessive price decline and excessive price increase in the live pig market according to the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan for Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market" [69]. 16. Multi - Caliber Comparison - Not elaborated in the provided content