生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main logic in 2026 is that the increase in supply is coming to an end, and the call for capacity reduction has been sounded, with the market waiting for verification [2][5][9] - The pig price in 2026 is expected to show different trends in different quarters, with potential fluctuations and limited upside space in the second half of the year Group 3: Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Pig Price Forecast - The pig price in Q1 2026 may rise first and then fall. Before the Spring Festival, the national average pig price high is expected to be between 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg; after the Spring Festival, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will pressure the pig price to weaken again, with the low point of the national average pig price expected to be between 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/kg [2][7] - Supply: The number of newborn piglets from January - September 2025 increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in the number of pig slaughter before March 2026. The number of newborn piglets in October and November 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1% and 0.8% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April 2026 [6] - Demand: It is currently the traditional peak season for pork consumption. The seasonal consumption increment of southern cured meat still exists but with a decreased growth rate. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption in the north is expected to be strong while that in the south is weak. After the Spring Festival, it will enter the traditional consumption off - season [6] 2026 Q2 Pig Price Forecast - In Q2 2026, pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling, stabilize, and start to recover, with the national average pig price expected to be between 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [2][8] - The number of piglets in October 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1%, corresponding to a weakening of the pig slaughter pressure in April 2026. The market expects a slight month - on - month decline in the number of piglets in November 2025 [8] 2026 H2 Pig Price Forecast - In the second half of 2026, the pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited upside space. In Q3 2026, it may show a phased seasonal upward trend, and the upward space depends on the impact of winter diseases, with the national monthly average pig price expected to be between 12 - 13.5 yuan/kg. The pig price in Q4 2026 depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026, which cannot be predicted by current data [3][9] - Pig supply is composed of three dimensions: sow inventory, production efficiency, and slaughter weight. If the sow inventory remains above 39 million heads and the industry average production efficiency continues to improve in the coming months, it will limit the upside space for the pig price in the second half of 2026 [3][9][10] - It is recommended that breeding enterprises conduct sell - hedging in the far - month contracts of live - hog futures when the prices rise to lock in breeding profits in advance [3][10]

Core Insights - The leading pig farming companies in China have not achieved significant results in reducing production capacity despite calls for it over the past year or two. In 2025, major listed pig companies reported a total pig sales volume of 144.54 million heads, an increase of 22.08 million heads compared to 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Data and Growth - In 2025, Muyuan Foods sold 77.98 million pigs, an increase of 6.38 million heads from 2024. Wens Foodstuff Group sold 40.48 million pigs, with a notable growth of 34.11%, exceeding its annual operational plan of 33-35 million heads [1]. - New Hope reported a pig sales volume of 17.55 million heads, aligning with its previous operational targets, while Zhengbang Technology sold 8.54 million heads, marking a 105.87% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Price Dynamics - The overall pig output from 19 listed companies in 2025 is projected to reach 198.67 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.9%. Companies like Zhengbang Technology and Dongrui Co. saw output growth exceeding 60% [2]. - The increase in supply has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping to 12.17 yuan/kg by January 2026, a decrease of 1.78% week-on-week and 23.51% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Capacity Management and Industry Recommendations - The "China Pig Industry High-Quality Development White Paper" indicates that the overcapacity issue stems from rapid expansion by large enterprises seeking scale effects. It suggests that market share for individual groups should not exceed 10%, and the top three companies should not exceed 30% [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for leading companies to stabilize the market by actively reducing production during periods of oversupply and releasing capacity in times of shortage [4]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The current structure of pig farming is shifting towards larger enterprises, with only Muyuan Foods maintaining a market share around 10%. Analysts suggest a balanced development involving family-run farms, which currently account for about 30% of output [6]. - The number of breeding sows is crucial for determining pig output, and adjustments to the target breeding sow population are recommended to align with market conditions [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The pig price in December 2025 reached a new low, with the industry experiencing a prolonged period of price inversion, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The December 2025 pig sales data revealed that the expected peak season did not materialize, with average sales prices dropping over 25% year-on-year, ranging between 11 CNY/kg and 12 CNY/kg [2]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods reported a 14.75% decrease in sales volume to 6.98 million pigs in December, resulting in a 36.06% decline in sales revenue to 9.667 billion CNY [2]. - Some companies, such as Zhengbang Technology, saw significant increases in sales volume, with a 73.26% rise to 1.0286 million pigs and a 25.75% increase in revenue to 914 million CNY [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The pig price exhibited a fluctuating trend in December, with a brief recovery mid-month due to seasonal demand, but ultimately ended with a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - The average price of white strip pork decreased by 26.21% year-on-year, despite a 15.22% increase in daily slaughter volume, indicating persistent downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Capacity Reduction - The industry is gradually initiating capacity reduction, but the pace remains slow, with many companies still maintaining high levels of breeding sows [4]. - As of December 2025, Muyuan Foods reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.232 million heads, reflecting a decrease, but overall industry capacity reduction is not yet substantial [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current high levels of breeding sow inventory will continue to exert pressure on supply, limiting price recovery potential [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident in the second half of 2026, with the first half expected to remain in a downward price cycle [5].

Core Insights - The livestock industry in 2025 experienced a steady progression amid policy adjustments and technological innovations, with "stabilizing production capacity, reducing costs, and strengthening technology" as the main themes [1] - The pig price showed a downward trend throughout the year, raising concerns about whether it would recover in 2026 [1] 2025 Review - The average price of lean pigs in China was 13.80 yuan/kg by December 22, 2025, a significant decrease of 17.66% year-on-year [2] - The price trend for 2025 was characterized by a "decline followed by stabilization and then further decline," with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan/kg on January 4 and the lowest at 10.72 yuan/kg on October 13 [2] - The core reason for the declining pig prices was the imbalance between supply and demand, with supply increasing significantly due to a release of production capacity [2] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 8.5264 million, a 5.61% increase compared to the previous cycle, leading to a total pig output of 168.965 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.58% [2] Demand Dynamics - Although there was a recovery in demand throughout the year, the growth was limited and insufficient to support a rise in pig prices [2] - The average daily slaughter volume was 175,700 heads, a 9.27% increase year-on-year, but this was primarily driven by increased output rather than a significant rise in demand [2] Ten Key Terms of 2025 - The ten key terms reflect a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the livestock industry, laying the groundwork for 2026 [3][4][5] 1. **De-capacity of Breeding Pigs**: A core regulatory policy aimed at stabilizing the number of breeding sows at 39 million [3] 2. **Going Global**: Leading enterprises are expanding internationally, marking the beginning of a "great navigation era" for Chinese agriculture [3] 3. **Liquid Precision Feeding**: A technology aimed at improving efficiency and reducing feed costs [4] 4. **Reduction of Soybean Meal**: A national strategy to ensure food security, with leading companies reducing soybean meal content in feed [4] 5. **Smart Farming**: The integration of AI and IoT to enhance farm management [4] 6. **Support for Beef/Dairy Industries**: Policies to assist struggling cattle and sheep farmers [4] 7. **Precise Disease Prevention**: A shift towards regular disease control measures [4] 8. **Green Farming**: Emphasis on sustainable practices [4] 9. **Standardization**: Initiatives to enhance regulatory compliance in the slaughter industry [4] 10. **Quality Improvement and Efficiency**: A focus on refined management and technological upgrades [4] 2026 Outlook - The pig price is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, with a potential turning point in the second quarter [6] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 9.1831 million, an 8.54% increase compared to the previous cycle, indicating continued supply pressure in early 2026 [6] - Demand is likely to remain passive, with seasonal fluctuations affecting the market [6] - The average price in the first half of 2026 is projected to fluctuate between 11.4 and 11.8 yuan/kg, with a potential rebound in the second half of the year [7] - The competition among pig enterprises will increasingly focus on internal capabilities, with a shift towards low-cost, high-tech operations [7] Summary - The livestock industry navigated a challenging year in 2025, with significant price fluctuations and a focus on transformation [8] - The anticipated "low first, high later" price trend for 2026 suggests cautious optimism, with key indicators such as breeding sow inventory and slaughter volume being critical for production planning [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses in 2025, with self-breeding operations facing a theoretical loss of 200 RMB per head and fattening pig losses ranging from 270 to 300 RMB per head. The average price of pigs has dropped from 15-16 RMB per kilogram at the beginning of the year to 11-11.5 RMB per kilogram, hitting a low of around 10 RMB in early October [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Price and Production Capacity - Official data indicates a decline in the number of breeding sows since July, but third-party monitoring shows that production capacity remained stable from July to September, suggesting limited effectiveness in reducing capacity. It is expected that the number of pigs slaughtered will be affected in the second half of 2026 [1][4]. - The average weight of pigs traded nationwide is approximately 124.59 kg, which is lower than the same period in previous years. The slaughtering rate of enterprises is around 41%, down from over 50% last year, indicating weak consumer demand [7][8]. Cost Structure and Responses - The domestic breeding cost is concentrated between 12-12.5 RMB per kilogram, with some leading companies managing to keep costs below 12 RMB. The current losses have led some medium-sized breeders to extend breeding cycles and use lower-quality feed, while smallholders are adjusting biosecurity measures without significant capacity reduction [5][16]. - Most smallholders are expected to withstand losses until the Spring Festival, aided by credit sales and discounts from feed service companies, which alleviate financial pressure [2][17]. Market Expectations - The overall market situation in 2025 is expected to be weaker than in 2023, with predictions of a gradual reduction in pig slaughtering volumes starting in July and August 2026. However, a supply-demand imbalance is necessary for price increases, with anticipated average prices for 2026 ranging from 12 to 12.5 RMB per kilogram [8][19]. - The price forecast for early 2025 remains low, around 11 RMB, with expectations of a significant drop post-Spring Festival [9][10][11]. Inventory and Weight Changes - The decline in average weight by 2 kg is considered normal as producers aim to minimize losses when prices fall below cost. However, the reduction primarily affects larger pigs awaiting slaughter, and it will take time to lower the overall inventory across all age groups [13][14]. Capacity Reduction and Future Trends - Group companies and medium-sized farms are slightly reducing capacity, but the overall decline is limited. Most smallholders are not engaging in significant capacity reduction due to expectations of better market conditions around traditional consumption peaks [15][18]. - The swine industry still has room for cost reduction, particularly in production efficiency and feed alternatives. The use of high-quality breeding stock and improved feed conversion ratios could significantly lower costs [21]. Regional Insights - The free-range breeding model in Shandong shows advantages such as shorter cycles and lower capital costs, but it also faces risks related to procurement and management capabilities. The optimal scale for operations is between 1,000 to 5,000 heads [22]. Cost Variance and Market Dynamics - Cost variance is expected to narrow as production methods converge, particularly in free-range systems. The differences between large group farms and smallholders are also diminishing as operational scales become more uniform across regions [23]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the industry is cautious, with most companies opting to maintain current scales rather than expand, reflecting a wait-and-see approach in light of uncertain market conditions [19].

Market Overview - As of November 21, the profit from self-bred pigs is a loss of 135.90 CNY per head, compared to a loss of 114.81 CNY the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets is a loss of 234.63 CNY per head, up from a loss of 205.64 CNY the previous week [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 18-19, indicating that the livestock industry has maintained steady development this year, with the total number of breeding sows falling below 40 million heads by the end of October [1] - The national pig price as of November 19 is 12.24 CNY per kilogram, down 1.61% from November 12, while the corn price has increased by 0.88% to 2.28 CNY per kilogram [1] Daily Market Prices - The average price of pigs in various provinces shows a downward trend, with prices in regions like Heilongjiang at 11.35 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from the previous day, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.44% [1] - The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.37, a decrease of 2.36% from November 12 [1] Industry Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has rapidly decreased to 39.90 million heads, leading to a divergence in market opinions regarding capacity reduction. Some advocate for accelerated capacity reduction to prevent further losses, while others with strong financial backing may seek to capitalize on the exit of smaller producers [2] - There are concerns that some companies may have inflated their actual breeding stock numbers to qualify for subsidies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices is attributed to a combination of factors including narrowing price differentials, weak consumer expectations, and increased supply pressures from farmers [3][10][13] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The average price of live pigs has recently dropped back to the 5 yuan range after briefly exceeding 6 yuan [2] - The price of large pigs has decreased due to a narrowing price differential, which previously incentivized farmers to engage in secondary fattening [3][6] - Despite a forecasted decrease in pig output in November, prices continue to fall due to existing supply levels and farmers' reluctance to sell at a loss [13] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer expectations for pork demand are weakening, influenced by limited disposable income and the availability of cheaper alternatives like poultry [10] - The timing of the upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February reduces the urgency for concentrated pork purchases, further dampening demand [10] Group 3: Supply and Risk Factors - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in certain regions have raised concerns among farmers, leading to increased supply as they opt to sell rather than risk further losses [11] - The ongoing losses faced by many pig farming operations are accelerating the process of capacity reduction in the industry, although this may benefit the market in the long term [13]