（来源：南京玛合雅） 来源：市场资讯 | | | | 全国外三元生猪价格汇总表 | | | | | 2025年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | | | | | | | | | | 元/公斤 | | 区域 | 省份 | 规模场 | 中小散 | 主流价 | 涨跌(较昨日) | 年同比 | 明日预测 | 后日预测 | | | 黑龙江 | 11.35 | 11.50 | 11.41 | -0.02 | -29.44% | (用 ge | 稳定 | | 东北 | 吉林 | 11.32 | 11.20 | 11.27 | -0.05 | -30.73% | 價弱 | 稳定 | | | 辽宁 | 11.23 | 11.60 | 11.38 | -0.10 | -30.27% | 價 | 稳定 | | | 内蒙 | 11.23 | 11.40 | 11.30 | -0.12 | -30.80% | 價或 | 稳定 | | | 河北 | 11.38 | 11.20 | 11.33 | -0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

生猪价格刚刚费劲巴拉的在6元冒了个头，真的也就是刚冒了个头，马上又掉下6元了，均价再次回到了5字头。 猪价怎么又跌了呢？ 我想先说两个问题： 第一个，最近标肥价差开始缩窄，或者直白一点，就是大猪降价了。 大猪为啥降价了呢？ 第二个问题：不是说11月份猪企出栏环比下降吗？既然下降了为啥猪价还跌了呢？ 弄明白这两个问题，我觉得也就基本能搞明白猪价为啥跌了，并且也基本能搞明白后续猪价会怎么走。 先说第一个，大猪为啥降价了？ 之前我们分析过，说只要胡萝卜还在，那么猪价就有上涨的动力。 其中一个胡萝卜就是标肥价差，或者说只要标肥价差存在，并且利润合得上，那肯定依然会有人冒险二次育肥。 为啥呢？ 一是虽然猪价又跌破6元/斤了，但是再跌破前低的概率不太大，也就是说抄底的机会不大了，谁会在高位进场啊。 二是消费预期越来越弱。 当然我说的是消费并不是指四季度猪肉消费的整体水平，我相信应该也没人会赌这个吧，因为这就是秃子头上的虱子——明摆的事了，这两年猪肉消费一直 就这个样，没有迹象表明今年猪肉消费就会猛增。 而养殖户看的更多的是腌腊、灌肠这种集中消费，短时间消费集中在一块儿才会形成效应。 但是现在这个预期已经在走弱了。 首先是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fundamentals remain loose, and the rebound in spot and futures prices for live pigs is limited due to ongoing supply pressures and market sentiment [1][47]. Group 2 - From the price trend perspective, live pig spot prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, with national benchmark prices dropping from 13.69 yuan/kg to 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.88 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Futures prices have also seen a significant decline, with the LH2601 contract falling from a high of 15,070 yuan/ton to a low of 11,655 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,415 points [1][2]. Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has not decreased significantly, with the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a slight reduction from 40.43 million in June to 40.35 million in September, indicating that supply remains ample [7][9]. - The birth of piglets has shown steady growth, with the number of newborn piglets increasing from 4.75 million to 5.67 million, a rise of 19.4% [11][12]. Group 4 - National pig inventory and market supply continue to increase, with the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reaching 52.992 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [16][17]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in heavier pigs, with the proportion of pigs over 140 kg rising significantly, indicating ongoing supply pressure [16][19]. Group 5 - The planned slaughter volume for September was 13.32 million, but the actual slaughter was only 12.697 million, indicating unfulfilled targets and ongoing supply pressure [20][21]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has shown limited fluctuation, with a slight increase in average weight despite price declines [25][26]. Group 6 - Demand for pork is showing signs of recovery, driven by lower temperatures and previous price declines, with wholesale prices rising from 14.4 yuan/kg to 16.2 yuan/kg [30][31]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased, reaching a peak of 37.24% by the end of September, indicating a recovery in demand [30][33]. Group 7 - The price difference between white pigs and live pigs has narrowed significantly, indicating ongoing pressure on slaughterhouse profitability [38][39]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs has expanded, suggesting limited supply of fat pigs due to production adjustments [38][43]. Group 8 - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward price movement expected in the near term, and the market is advised to consider selling at higher prices [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant reduction in pig production, with a focus on the long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics [3][7] - The report identifies various investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates a confirmed trend of capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, driven by weak prices and policy support [7] - In September, 13 listed pig companies collectively reported a pig output of 13.7586 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 8.65% but a year-on-year increase of 18.31% [11] - The average selling price of pigs has dropped significantly, with most companies reporting a price decline of around 30% year-on-year [12][13] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with fluctuations in prices for corn, wheat, and soybean meal [40] - As of October 17, corn prices averaged 2263.14 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, while wheat prices increased slightly to 2451.94 yuan/ton [40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices [3][54] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and a favorable market environment [3][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, prompting a rapid reduction in production capacity, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of quality companies in the swine breeding sector, which continue to show profitability and increasing dividend rates as key drivers for long-term performance and valuation [3] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in grain prices and the favorable fundamentals in planting and seed industries, indicating significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The current market for swine is under pressure, with prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices dropping below 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [8][11] - As of August 2025, the number of breeding sows has slightly decreased to 40.38 million heads, with slaughter volumes increasing significantly [8] - The average price of commodity pigs fell to 14.23 yuan/kg in August, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, indicating a rapid deterioration in industry profitability [8][49] Poultry Industry - The white feather broiler price has slightly decreased to 6.88 yuan/kg, while chick prices have increased to 3.22 yuan/bird, reflecting a mixed market response [15][22] - The yellow feather chicken price remains strong at 7.09 yuan/jin, supported by seasonal demand [22] Feed Industry - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with corn prices averaging 2304.12 yuan/ton, down 2.70% week-on-week, while wheat and soybean meal prices have seen slight increases [27][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the swine breeding sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from ongoing capacity reductions [3][41] - It also suggests that the recovery in swine inventory will boost demand for feed and animal health products, benefiting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [3][41] - In the planting sector, the report identifies investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][41] - The pet food sector is highlighted as a growth area, with increasing domestic brand recognition and market expansion [3][41]

Core Insights - The pig market is facing significant pressure in October, with prices dropping sharply after the holiday season, raising concerns about maintaining prices above 5 yuan per kilogram [2][4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The backlog of pigs that accumulated from May to August is now impacting the market, with a projected increase of over 5% in the slaughter plans for large-scale pig enterprises in October [4]. - The cost of pig farming has escalated, with some enterprises reporting costs as low as 11 yuan per kilogram, leading to widespread losses as the average price has fallen to around 11.4 yuan per kilogram [5][8]. - The sentiment among farmers has weakened significantly due to the failure of price support during the holiday season, with fears that prices could drop below 5 yuan per kilogram [7][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The government is keen on reducing pig production capacity but aims to avoid a drastic decline in prices, as indicated by recent stockpiling initiatives [9][10]. - October is characterized by lower meat consumption due to cooler weather and increased supply, but there is potential for improved demand in November as southern regions begin their curing processes [12]. - Although some regions may see prices dip below 5 yuan, a widespread drop below this threshold is considered unlikely, with prices expected to stabilize between 5 and 5.5 yuan [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to see a long-term performance improvement due to ongoing capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with key companies continuing to show profitability and increasing dividend rates [3][46] - The current prices for fat pigs and piglets have dropped significantly, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which may trigger a market-driven capacity reduction [3][12] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][46] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals - Pig prices continue to decline, with the average price for fat pigs at 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% week-on-week, and piglet prices at 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.81% week-on-week [12][54] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is stabilizing, but the pressure from capacity release continues, leading to a sustained decline in prices [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) as key investment targets [3][46] - For the post-cycle sector, rising pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and animal health products, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Reap Bio (300119) identified as potential beneficiaries [3][46] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Beidahuang (600598) are noted for their favorable investment outlook due to rising grain prices [3][46] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet (301498) and Zhongchong Co. (002891) recommended for investment [3][46] Market Performance - The agriculture sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index down 1.97% during the week, compared to a 0.21% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [48][49] - Key sub-sectors such as feed, animal health, and livestock farming all experienced declines, with livestock farming down 2.14% [48]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both active and passive capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is expected to lead to an upward shift in the medium to long-term price center for pigs [11][12] - The supply-demand dynamics for grains are improving, with overall grain prices showing signs of recovery [20][24] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Industry - According to data from Pig Easy, the prices for pigs in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are projected to be 15.06, 14.53, and 14.02 yuan per kilogram, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.26%, -10.78%, and -28.22% respectively [11] - The report highlights that in the past 36 weeks, external piglet farming has only been profitable for 8 weeks, with an average loss of 58.50 yuan per head as of the third week of September [12] - In contrast, self-breeding and self-raising farming has been profitable for 35 weeks, with an average profit of 63.69 yuan per head [12] - The report suggests that the current average price of pigs has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, leading to losses for some farmers and initiating a proactive capacity reduction in the industry [12] Grain Industry - Since the beginning of 2025, prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and japonica rice have shown significant recovery, with corn prices rising due to a decrease in imports and increased demand from pig farming [20] - For corn, the domestic spot prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are 2196.63, 2348.12, and 2393.15 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -10.69%, -3.50%, and -0.32% respectively [20] - Wheat prices have also shown a recovery trend, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 prices at 2410.83, 2444.25, and 2436.90 yuan per ton [22] - The report notes that the overall recovery in grain prices is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the future [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, where the price center is expected to rise due to policy guidance and industry restructuring [3] - Specific companies to watch include Lihua Co., Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods in the pig farming sector [3][6] - For grain-related investments, companies with strong cost control such as Haida Group are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the certainty of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by both policy and market forces, which is expected to enhance long-term performance and valuation of the sector [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of yellow chicken prices, which are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term [20][36] - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, making prices more likely to rise than fall [36] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, where quality companies are expected to maintain profitability and increase dividend rates, with key stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy) [3] - It suggests that the post-cycle sector will benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with relevant stocks being Haida Group (002311, Not Rated) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices is established, presenting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) highlighted [3] - The pet food sector is noted for its growth potential, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies, including Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The pig sector is nearing the end of its inventory reduction phase, with recent price declines observed; as of September 12, the average price for pigs was 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week [9][50] - The white feather broiler market is experiencing a return to low volatility, with prices for broilers and chicks declining [16][50] - The yellow feather broiler prices have shown resilience, with prices reaching 6.78 yuan/jin, up 3.99% week-on-week [20][50] - The feed sector is seeing a stabilization in raw material prices, with corn and soybean meal prices showing slight increases [27][50] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising 4.81% during the week of September 8-12, 2025, compared to a 1.52% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [42][46] - Individual stocks within the agricultural sector showed significant gains, with Lihua Co. leading with a 17.31% increase [46][47]