对于2025年12月生猪销售情况，卓创资讯生猪分析师范晴晴向智通财经记者表示："12月生猪价格呈现 跌-涨-跌-涨走势，月底涨幅较大，但全月均价环比仍微跌。"她指出，月初养殖端出栏积极性高，市场 供应充足，而终端需求平淡，导致价格下行；中下旬受南方腌腊备货带动，价格短暂回升，但备货结束 后需求收缩，价格再次回调。"2026年春节在2月中旬，终端备货启动时间较晚，预计1月末才逐步开 启。" 新希望相关负责人向智通财经记者表示，去年与以往年度不一样，旺季不旺，受整体供给宽松影响，价 格仍低迷。基本盘来看，2026年二季度前供给端仍相对充裕。 卓创数据显示，2025年12月全国白条猪肉出厂均价同比下降26.21%，低价在一定程度上刺激终端消 费，屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增幅15.22%，但仍难以扭转猪价整体颓势。 去产能进程缓慢 1月9日，2025年猪价在12月触及新低中收官，有猪企高管向智通财经记者表示："猪价已经持续倒挂将 近半年。" 上市猪企近期陆续披露的去年12月销售数据显示，2025生猪价格"旺季不旺"，部分企业出栏量环比上 升，但销售均价普遍同比大幅下滑，行业整体仍处于底部运行阶段。智通财经记者从业内采访 ...

来源：中国猪业 2025年已圆满落幕，2026年已然开启新篇。这一年，畜牧行业在政策调控与技术革新中稳步前行，"稳 产能、降成本、强科技"成为贯穿全年的主线；而作为行业核心风向标之一的猪价，却走出了震荡下滑 的态势。今天，我们既要复盘2025年定义行业走向的十大热词，更要聚焦大家最关心的猪价走势—— 2026年猪价能否回暖？转折点何时出现？答案都在这里！ 2025复盘 猪价震荡下滑，供需博弈定格局 2025年的生猪市场，用"震荡下行"四个字便可概括。据卓创资讯监测，截至12月22日，全年全国瘦肉型 生猪均价仅13.80元/公斤，同比大幅降低17.66%。从年内走势看，呈现"降后横盘再震荡下滑"的特征：1 月4日创下全年最高价16.36元/公斤，此后逐步回落，10月13日跌至全年最低点10.72元/公斤，价格波动 让不少养殖户倍感压力。 猪价走低的核心逻辑，在于"供应放量、需求乏力"的供需失衡格局： 从供应端看，2025年是典型的产能释放年。按照生猪繁育周期推算，当年1-11月的出栏量由2024年3月 至2025年1月的能繁母猪存栏量决定。卓创资讯监测数据显示，此阶段196家样本企业能繁母猪平均存栏 852.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

如何看待猪价与产能分歧 20251214 摘要 2025 年生猪养殖普遍亏损，自繁自养理论亏损 200 元/头，仔猪育肥亏 损 270-300 元/头，全年猪价从年初 15-16 元/公斤降至 11-11.5 元/公 斤，10 月初一度跌至 10 元/公斤。 官方数据显示能繁母猪数量自 7 月起下降，但第三方监测显示 7-9 月产 能基本稳定，整体去产能效果不明显，预计 2026 年下半年生猪出栏量 将受影响。 国内养殖成本集中在 12-12.5 元/公斤，亏损导致部分中型养殖户延长配 种周期、使用低端饲料，小型散户调整生物安全防控，但未出现显著去 产能行为。 龙头企业对 2026 年仔猪价格预期较低，补栏积极性较弱，本周 7 公斤 仔猪均价为 218 元，低于预期成本。 本周全国交易均重约 124.59 公斤，低于往年同期，屠宰企业开工率约 41%，低于去年同期 50%以上水平，消费端形势疲软。 预计 2026 年七八月份后生猪出栏量将逐步缩减，但需持续减少至供不 应求状态才会出现价格上涨，预计 2026 年价格先跌后涨，涨幅有限， 均价预计在 12 至 12.5 元/公斤。 散户成本不均匀，但多数有能力坚 ...

Market Overview - As of November 21, the profit from self-bred pigs is a loss of 135.90 CNY per head, compared to a loss of 114.81 CNY the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets is a loss of 234.63 CNY per head, up from a loss of 205.64 CNY the previous week [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 18-19, indicating that the livestock industry has maintained steady development this year, with the total number of breeding sows falling below 40 million heads by the end of October [1] - The national pig price as of November 19 is 12.24 CNY per kilogram, down 1.61% from November 12, while the corn price has increased by 0.88% to 2.28 CNY per kilogram [1] Daily Market Prices - The average price of pigs in various provinces shows a downward trend, with prices in regions like Heilongjiang at 11.35 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from the previous day, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.44% [1] - The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.37, a decrease of 2.36% from November 12 [1] Industry Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has rapidly decreased to 39.90 million heads, leading to a divergence in market opinions regarding capacity reduction. Some advocate for accelerated capacity reduction to prevent further losses, while others with strong financial backing may seek to capitalize on the exit of smaller producers [2] - There are concerns that some companies may have inflated their actual breeding stock numbers to qualify for subsidies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices is attributed to a combination of factors including narrowing price differentials, weak consumer expectations, and increased supply pressures from farmers [3][10][13] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The average price of live pigs has recently dropped back to the 5 yuan range after briefly exceeding 6 yuan [2] - The price of large pigs has decreased due to a narrowing price differential, which previously incentivized farmers to engage in secondary fattening [3][6] - Despite a forecasted decrease in pig output in November, prices continue to fall due to existing supply levels and farmers' reluctance to sell at a loss [13] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer expectations for pork demand are weakening, influenced by limited disposable income and the availability of cheaper alternatives like poultry [10] - The timing of the upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February reduces the urgency for concentrated pork purchases, further dampening demand [10] Group 3: Supply and Risk Factors - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in certain regions have raised concerns among farmers, leading to increased supply as they opt to sell rather than risk further losses [11] - The ongoing losses faced by many pig farming operations are accelerating the process of capacity reduction in the industry, although this may benefit the market in the long term [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fundamentals remain loose, and the rebound in spot and futures prices for live pigs is limited due to ongoing supply pressures and market sentiment [1][47]. Group 2 - From the price trend perspective, live pig spot prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, with national benchmark prices dropping from 13.69 yuan/kg to 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.88 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Futures prices have also seen a significant decline, with the LH2601 contract falling from a high of 15,070 yuan/ton to a low of 11,655 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,415 points [1][2]. Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has not decreased significantly, with the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a slight reduction from 40.43 million in June to 40.35 million in September, indicating that supply remains ample [7][9]. - The birth of piglets has shown steady growth, with the number of newborn piglets increasing from 4.75 million to 5.67 million, a rise of 19.4% [11][12]. Group 4 - National pig inventory and market supply continue to increase, with the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reaching 52.992 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [16][17]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in heavier pigs, with the proportion of pigs over 140 kg rising significantly, indicating ongoing supply pressure [16][19]. Group 5 - The planned slaughter volume for September was 13.32 million, but the actual slaughter was only 12.697 million, indicating unfulfilled targets and ongoing supply pressure [20][21]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has shown limited fluctuation, with a slight increase in average weight despite price declines [25][26]. Group 6 - Demand for pork is showing signs of recovery, driven by lower temperatures and previous price declines, with wholesale prices rising from 14.4 yuan/kg to 16.2 yuan/kg [30][31]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased, reaching a peak of 37.24% by the end of September, indicating a recovery in demand [30][33]. Group 7 - The price difference between white pigs and live pigs has narrowed significantly, indicating ongoing pressure on slaughterhouse profitability [38][39]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs has expanded, suggesting limited supply of fat pigs due to production adjustments [38][43]. Group 8 - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward price movement expected in the near term, and the market is advised to consider selling at higher prices [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant reduction in pig production, with a focus on the long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics [3][7] - The report identifies various investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates a confirmed trend of capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, driven by weak prices and policy support [7] - In September, 13 listed pig companies collectively reported a pig output of 13.7586 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 8.65% but a year-on-year increase of 18.31% [11] - The average selling price of pigs has dropped significantly, with most companies reporting a price decline of around 30% year-on-year [12][13] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with fluctuations in prices for corn, wheat, and soybean meal [40] - As of October 17, corn prices averaged 2263.14 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, while wheat prices increased slightly to 2451.94 yuan/ton [40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices [3][54] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and a favorable market environment [3][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, prompting a rapid reduction in production capacity, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of quality companies in the swine breeding sector, which continue to show profitability and increasing dividend rates as key drivers for long-term performance and valuation [3] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in grain prices and the favorable fundamentals in planting and seed industries, indicating significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The current market for swine is under pressure, with prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices dropping below 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [8][11] - As of August 2025, the number of breeding sows has slightly decreased to 40.38 million heads, with slaughter volumes increasing significantly [8] - The average price of commodity pigs fell to 14.23 yuan/kg in August, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, indicating a rapid deterioration in industry profitability [8][49] Poultry Industry - The white feather broiler price has slightly decreased to 6.88 yuan/kg, while chick prices have increased to 3.22 yuan/bird, reflecting a mixed market response [15][22] - The yellow feather chicken price remains strong at 7.09 yuan/jin, supported by seasonal demand [22] Feed Industry - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with corn prices averaging 2304.12 yuan/ton, down 2.70% week-on-week, while wheat and soybean meal prices have seen slight increases [27][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the swine breeding sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from ongoing capacity reductions [3][41] - It also suggests that the recovery in swine inventory will boost demand for feed and animal health products, benefiting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [3][41] - In the planting sector, the report identifies investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][41] - The pet food sector is highlighted as a growth area, with increasing domestic brand recognition and market expansion [3][41]