之前我们说10月份玉米要面临很大的压力，生猪也是如此，而且从一进10月就已经很明显了。 按说双节提振，猪价怎么也能扛上一扛，但没想到的是，根本扛不住，也就象征性地涨了两天，就开始跌跌不休了。 结果到节后更是猛跌。 之前我们说6元/斤保不住，现在照这么个跌势，很多人开始担心，5元能不能保住都成问题了。 但不得不说，10月份生猪市场的压力不是一般的大。 为什么？ 第一，出栏积压。 官方从5月底开始就强调去产能了，但是实际情况是，5到8月产能的去化是非常缓慢的，直到官方多次开展会谈，各大企业才开始真正去产能。 第三，情绪越来越弱。 之前猪价还能挺上一挺，很大一部分原因就是很多养殖户还是迷信四季度的旺季，认为经济在回暖，消费在增加，那么猪肉作为全国肉类的消费之首当然也 呈增长的趋势了，所以挺价情绪还是比较浓的，都想着即便是要出栏也要把这钢用在刀刃上。 但随着双节的失效，以及节后猪价开启全面大跌模式以后，这种挺价情绪就变得越来越弱了。 因为不敢挺了，这刚跌破了6元，就已经朝着5元的方向奔去了，而且已经有地区跌破11元/公斤了。 要按这个趋势发展，那可能真用不了多久，跌破5元也是分分钟的事。 那么，猪价真会跌破5元吗？ ...

投资建议与投资标的 农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 肥猪、仔猪均进入亏损区间，关注去产能 演绎 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250922-20250926） 核心观点 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长 期业绩和估值提升的核心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力 未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买 入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)、巨星农牧(603477，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，生 猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下 游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好， 大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食 行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both active and passive capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is expected to lead to an upward shift in the medium to long-term price center for pigs [11][12] - The supply-demand dynamics for grains are improving, with overall grain prices showing signs of recovery [20][24] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Industry - According to data from Pig Easy, the prices for pigs in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are projected to be 15.06, 14.53, and 14.02 yuan per kilogram, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.26%, -10.78%, and -28.22% respectively [11] - The report highlights that in the past 36 weeks, external piglet farming has only been profitable for 8 weeks, with an average loss of 58.50 yuan per head as of the third week of September [12] - In contrast, self-breeding and self-raising farming has been profitable for 35 weeks, with an average profit of 63.69 yuan per head [12] - The report suggests that the current average price of pigs has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, leading to losses for some farmers and initiating a proactive capacity reduction in the industry [12] Grain Industry - Since the beginning of 2025, prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and japonica rice have shown significant recovery, with corn prices rising due to a decrease in imports and increased demand from pig farming [20] - For corn, the domestic spot prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are 2196.63, 2348.12, and 2393.15 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -10.69%, -3.50%, and -0.32% respectively [20] - Wheat prices have also shown a recovery trend, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 prices at 2410.83, 2444.25, and 2436.90 yuan per ton [22] - The report notes that the overall recovery in grain prices is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the future [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, where the price center is expected to rise due to policy guidance and industry restructuring [3] - Specific companies to watch include Lihua Co., Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods in the pig farming sector [3][6] - For grain-related investments, companies with strong cost control such as Haida Group are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the certainty of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by both policy and market forces, which is expected to enhance long-term performance and valuation of the sector [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of yellow chicken prices, which are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term [20][36] - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, making prices more likely to rise than fall [36] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, where quality companies are expected to maintain profitability and increase dividend rates, with key stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy) [3] - It suggests that the post-cycle sector will benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with relevant stocks being Haida Group (002311, Not Rated) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices is established, presenting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) highlighted [3] - The pet food sector is noted for its growth potential, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies, including Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The pig sector is nearing the end of its inventory reduction phase, with recent price declines observed; as of September 12, the average price for pigs was 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week [9][50] - The white feather broiler market is experiencing a return to low volatility, with prices for broilers and chicks declining [16][50] - The yellow feather broiler prices have shown resilience, with prices reaching 6.78 yuan/jin, up 3.99% week-on-week [20][50] - The feed sector is seeing a stabilization in raw material prices, with corn and soybean meal prices showing slight increases [27][50] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising 4.81% during the week of September 8-12, 2025, compared to a 1.52% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [42][46] - Individual stocks within the agricultural sector showed significant gains, with Lihua Co. leading with a 17.31% increase [46][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since late July, the live hog futures market has shifted from a "strong expectation - weak reality" state to a "weak reality - weak expectation" state, with the futures price declining under the drag of weak spot prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weak Reality Drags the Futures Price to Oscillate Lower In the past month, the live hog spot price has been oscillating lower. As of August 27, it dropped to the lowest level of the year at 13.6 yuan/kg. The live hog 2511 contract was dragged by the spot, and the previous premium on the futures side was squeezed [3]. 3.2 The Second Half of the Year Remains in the Period of Realizing Previous Production Capacity, with Ample Supply Yongyi sample data shows that the inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.07% month - on - month in August, with the growth rate slowing down compared to the previous month. Shanghai Steel Union data shows that the inventory of sample breeding sows decreased by 0.01% month - on - month in August. Overall, the supply of live hogs is expected to gradually increase in the second half of this year, as the inventory of breeding sows from November last year to February this year and the number of new - born piglets from March to June this year both indicate an increase in the theoretical slaughter volume of live hogs [6]. 3.3 The Enthusiasm for Secondary Fattening is Suppressed In the first half of the year, the secondary fattening group was in the replenishment stage, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens increased. Since July, due to the decline in the live hog spot price and the new low in August, the secondary fattening group has suffered losses. The current utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is still between 40% - 60%, which is expected to affect the later replenishment enthusiasm [11]. 3.4 Continue to Pay Attention to Policy Variables in the Medium and Long Term As of the end of July 2025, the officially announced inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, 3.6% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads proposed in 2024. The pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized cities has fallen below 6:1 for the second consecutive week, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to possible state reserve purchases [15].

Group 1 - August is typically a peak season for pig prices, but this year, prices have declined due to government calls for capacity reduction and weight control, leading to a drop below 7 yuan/kg [2] - The national pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, triggering a warning and subsequent pork reserve purchases totaling 10,000 tons, with additional announcements for 29,000 tons of reserve meat [4] - The purpose of the reserve purchases is to stabilize market sentiment and prevent a drastic drop in pig prices, indicating a likelihood of price stabilization [4] Group 2 - The pig production capacity is undergoing a phase of reduction, but it is expected to be intermittent rather than continuous, as producers will adjust based on market conditions [5] - There is a slight improvement in the market for larger pigs as consumption increases with the back-to-school season, allowing pig prices to recover somewhat [7] - Consumer demand for pork is gradually increasing, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches, which is traditionally a peak consumption period [8] Group 3 - The government's policy stance is clear, with recent reserve purchases aimed at preventing uncontrolled price drops while still pursuing capacity reduction [9] - The concentration of pig farming has increased due to the elimination of many small producers, leading to stronger risk resistance among larger enterprises, which are less likely to panic sell [11] - While the likelihood of significant price drops has decreased, the potential for price increases remains limited, suggesting a period of narrow fluctuations in pig prices [11]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rising briefly before falling again, indicating that the decline is the norm rather than the exception [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current pig market is focused on capacity reduction, with the government having intervened three times this year to address production capacity issues [3]. - Despite a temporary increase in prices at the beginning of August, the market could not sustain this due to ongoing capacity reduction efforts [3]. - There is significant bearish sentiment in the market, with concerns that prices may fall below 7 yuan per jin [3]. Group 2: Regional Price Disparities - The pig market shows a clear divergence, with southern regions maintaining higher prices (above 7.5 yuan per jin) compared to northern regions, which are experiencing significant price drops [5]. - The reduction in pig supply from the north, coupled with increased pressure from secondary fattening in the north, has led to a supply surplus and price declines in those areas [6][8]. - Southern regions have a higher dependency on pork consumption, which supports their prices, while northern consumption shows seasonal volatility [8]. Group 3: Future Demand and Seasonal Factors - Demand for pork is expected to rebound in the third quarter as weather conditions improve and major holidays approach, which typically boost consumption [9]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, along with the winter holiday season, are anticipated to provide additional support for pork consumption [9]. Group 4: Pricing and Production Management - The rhythm of pig sales is crucial; even with an overall supply surplus, prices may not continuously decline if sales are managed effectively [10]. - Current production strategies do not indicate a panic sell-off, which could mitigate drastic price drops [10]. - Experts predict that while breeding profits may decrease, most producers are still operating near the cost threshold of 14 yuan per kilogram, suggesting that prices may hover around 7 yuan per jin without sustained drops below this level [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after a significant drop in pig prices in July, there has been a recovery in August, particularly in northern regions, with prices returning above 7 yuan per kilogram [2][4] - The support for the bottom of pig prices is believed to be strong, as the market is unlikely to see a complete and sustained drop back to previous lows [4] - Downstream consumption is gradually improving, with expectations of increased demand due to seasonal changes and upcoming holidays, which may lead to controlled pig sales [5][6] Group 2 - The trend of decreasing average weight of slaughtered pigs has been observed, reaching a six-year low, indicating effective measures in reducing production capacity and weight [6][8] - Despite the stabilization of pig prices, the overall supply pressure remains, making significant price increases challenging [8] - The fluctuations in pig prices also impact the corn and wheat markets, with current conditions suggesting that corn prices may remain strong in August due to stable demand from feed [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs. It analyzes the impact of factors such as trade negotiations, weather, policies, and market supply - demand on these products' prices and recommends corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have significantly reduced positions and pulled back. The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to soybean production. Pay attention to the negotiation results, policy, and weather [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Before August 1st, the US tariff deadline, the third round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in Stockholm. China may resume importing US soybeans in the fourth quarter. If the US weather remains good, new - season soybeans may have a bumper harvest. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest weather is good for soybean production. US soybean oil is strong, and palm oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious of the short - term oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, fund reduction of long positions, and improved weather. The domestic rapeseed system continues to have low inventories, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term [6]. Corn - In July, CGSCC held 8 import corn auctions, with a continuous decline in the transaction rate and premium. The supply of corn has affected market expectations. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Hogs - The sentiment of hog futures has weakened, and the spot price has been declining. The potential supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and it is recommended that the industry participate in hedging at high prices [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs has declined, and the 08 contract has squeezed the premium. The 09 contract has also been affected. The far - month contracts in the first half of next year are relatively strong. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal rebound [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pork industry** and the **pet supply chain** market in China, focusing on recent trends, regulatory impacts, and market dynamics. Key Points on the Pork Industry 1. **Pork Price Trends**: Pork prices are on a downward trend due to supply influences, with prices fluctuating around 14 RMB after a brief increase to over 15 RMB in June. This aligns with expectations of high annual output and piglet replenishment rates, indicating limited short-term price increases [1][2]. 2. **Regulatory Impact**: The government aims to stabilize pork supply and prevent price surges, with large farming enterprises playing a crucial role. Stricter measures may be implemented, including environmental regulations and financial controls, to achieve long-term stabilization [1][5]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The pork industry is undergoing a natural price decline and capacity reduction process. Leading companies like Muyuan Foods are becoming more resilient in the competitive landscape, transitioning from cyclical to value stocks, making them attractive for long-term investment [1][7]. 4. **Production Forecast**: The pork price outlook for Q3 and H2 remains cautious, with high production levels expected to persist. The growth in output is anticipated to keep prices low, as the supply of pigs is not expected to decrease significantly in the short term [4][6]. 5. **Vaccination Developments**: The approval of clinical trials for African swine fever subunit vaccines is a positive development, although the timeline for market availability remains uncertain. This could directly impact companies like BioFeng and Zhongmu [3][15]. Key Points on the Pet Supply Chain 1. **Market Performance**: The pet consumption market showed strong performance in H1 2025, with total spending reaching approximately 77.3 billion RMB, an 8.8% year-on-year increase. Online sales dominate, while offline pet store sales grew only about 1% [8][9]. 2. **Trends in Pet Food**: The pet food market is experiencing product diversification and precision in consumer demand. High-end products and scientific pet care concepts are driving market upgrades, with categories like baked food seeing rapid growth [9][12]. 3. **Emerging Brands**: New brands are quickly rising by meeting consumer needs, indicating a shift towards higher quality and specialized products in the pet food sector [9][12]. 4. **Future Directions**: Domestic pet brands are expected to continue moving towards mid-to-high-end markets, focusing on scientific pet care and product upgrades to maintain growth. The competitive landscape in lower-end markets remains intense [12][14]. 5. **Market Outlook**: The pet industry outlook is optimistic, driven by differentiated products and strong domestic demand. The annual growth rate of new pet owners is stable at around 8%, with online sales growth of 15-16% last year [13][14]. Additional Insights - The pork industry is expected to see a gradual transition towards stable production levels, benefiting leading companies with lower costs and higher certainty in performance [6][7]. - The approval of the African swine fever vaccine is a significant milestone, but the path to market remains complex and uncertain, necessitating close monitoring of developments [15][17]. - The pet supply chain is poised for rapid growth over the next three to five years, presenting a compelling investment opportunity as consumer preferences evolve [14].