港口延续累库周期，港口供应方面，甲醇海外开工整体开工仍偏高，8月到港压力进一步上升，而下游MTO装置兴 兴于7月底兑现检修1个月。内地方面，煤头甲醇开工最低点已过，但待下旬才回升至高位；甲醇内地工厂库存进 一步下降，总体仍是内地强于港口的格局，但前期高开工的醋酸开工有所见顶回落，甲醛季节性淡季，等待进一 步底部回升，仍关注内地需求韧性的持续情况。 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-12 港口处于累库周期，港口基差偏弱 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润688元/吨（+13）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2103元/吨（+13），内蒙北线基差314元/吨（+7），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2368元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差179元/吨（+9）；河南2250元/吨（-10），河南基差61元/吨（-16）；河北2275元/吨（+0），河北基差146元/ 吨（-6）。隆众内地工厂库存293688吨（-30832），西北工厂库存185500吨（-30500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240800 吨（+10075），西北工厂待发订单1228 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, leading to significant pressure on Chinese imports and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The MTO plant in Xingxing has a pending maintenance plan, and attention should also be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry in traditional downstream sectors is in a seasonal off - season, the operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable, and the inland demand shows strong resilience. The inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant, resulting in a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report includes figures showing the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol spot in different regions against the main futures contract, and the inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][10][20]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures are presented for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [24][25][29]. 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory The report shows figures related to the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall operation rate of Chinese methanol production (including integrated plants) [32][33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences Figures are provided for various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [37][45][48]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55][57]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell short and hedge on the 09 contract when the price is high [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided [3].

期货研究报告 | 化工组 化工半年报 谨慎逢低做多套保。伊朗地缘冲突放缓，伊朗装置复产，炒作暂过 7 月到港仍集中，现实偏进入累库周期。但海外气价偏高，四季度仍有 伊朗冬检提前或加剧的预期，且四季度的下游投产集中，预期下半年走势先走弱再走强。跨期方面，09 合约偏向现实累库，01 合约偏向 交易伊朗冬检，9-1 价差偏向逢高做反套，1-5 价差偏向于逢低做正套。 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 化工板块研究 Chemical Research 本期分析研究员 梁宗泰 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 吴硕琮 从业资格号： F03119179 杨露露 从业资格号： F03128371 2025 年 07 月 06 日 期货研究报告 | 甲醇半年报 2025-07-06 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 市场要闻与重要数据 2025 年名义新增产能暂仅放在 335 万吨/年，名义产能增速在 4.6%，已基 本兑现，分别是 2024 年底投产的马油 3#170 万吨/年，投产后停车时间较多， 7 月计划 ...