Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current inventory pressure at ports remains high, and it is necessary to wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments. The impact of plant maintenance on actual shipment volume decline needs further confirmation. The port inventory increased rapidly in late December and returned to a historical high. - The supply pressure of coal - based methanol inland is still significant, while the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance. The traditional downstream demand is in the off - season, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle. - Suggested strategies include cautiously going long on a single - side basis for hedging, widening the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low, and narrowing the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [1][3][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Basis Strategy - **Basis Status**: The basis of Taicang against the MA2605 contract is still weak, oscillating between - 40 and - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of Inner Mongolia's northern line against MA2605 has dropped from + 500 yuan/ton to below + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Analysis and Forecast**: Due to large port inventory and waiting for a decline in January shipments, the port basis is expected to oscillate between - 30 and 0 yuan/ton. Inland, due to high coal - based methanol production and the off - season of traditional downstream industries, the factory inventory is rebuilding, and the inland basis is expected to further weaken to the range of + 100 to + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments and a drop in Chinese arrivals. For the spread, go long on MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. Pay attention to the decline in the off - season of traditional downstream industries for Inner Mongolia's basis [11]. II. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - Period Spreads No specific new content other than basis analysis is provided in the given text. III. Methanol Overseas and Inland Supply - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas methanol monthly output is 4,001,517 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.96% (unchanged). China's monthly methanol import volume is 1,417,590 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.64%. Iranian winter maintenance has started, but the decline rate of actual shipments is slow [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's monthly methanol output is 9,071,285 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88%. The operating rate is 90.97% (+ 0.45%). Coal - based methanol production in December further increased, and the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance, initially planned until mid - to late January [1]. - **Production Plan**: There are multiple methanol production projects in China with different production times, matching downstream facilities, and production capacities [27]. IV. Methanol Downstream Demand - **Port MTO Demand**: The operating rate of external methanol - purchasing MTO enterprises is 85.66% (- 0.34%). Methanol - to - olefin production is 1,711,511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. Ningbo Fude's MTO unit started maintenance on December 8 for 45 days. Pay attention to the possibility of Xingxing MTO maintenance in January and the commissioning progress of Guangxi Huayi MTO in the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - **Inland Traditional Downstream Demand**: Formaldehyde production is 1455000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; glacial acetic acid production is 1,095,550 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.47%; MTBE production is 1,804,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.56%; dimethyl ether production is 42,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%. The operating rates of different products vary, with formaldehyde in the off - season and acetic acid's operating rate rising from the bottom [2]. - **Inland MTO Demand**: The weekly procurement volume of northwest MTO enterprises is 56,500 tons (+ 10,500). Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation, while the new Lunan Lianhong Phase II MTO unit was put into operation on December 10, driving new inland MTO demand [3]. V. Methanol Port Inventory and Inland Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,477,408 tons (+ 64,899), including 843,845 tons in Jiangsu (+ 28,554), 203,300 tons in Zhejiang (+ 11,300), 214,000 tons in Guangdong (- 19,000), and 216,263 tons in Fujian (+ 44,045). The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 760,000 tons (+ 70,000). The port inventory pressure is still large due to the delayed unloading and reduced demand for port - to - inland shipments [3]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 422,590 tons (+ 18,620), with 253,500 tons in the northwest factory warehouse (+ 22,000). The factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high coal - based supply pressure [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Iran's methanol plant shutdowns are increasing, and winter maintenance is being implemented as expected. Attention should be paid to the duration of the maintenance and the progress of subsequent shipments. - The port inventory has started to decline significantly as the window for the port to flow back to the inland has opened, alleviating the port inventory pressure. - The coal - based methanol production in the inland region remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of inland factories has increased again. The MTO units are in a state of maintenance or low - load operation, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions, with acetic acid operating at a low level, formaldehyde at a low - load in the off - season, and only MTBE at a relatively high operating rate. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy and hedge MA2605 on dips, widen the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 on dips, and there is no strategy for cross - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract (e.g., methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import spread of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [36][37][39]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It presents the price differences between regions, such as the price differences between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [41][51][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade conflicts and Iranian cargo docking. The port market may be short - term boosted due to the potential impact on Iranian cargo docking at major ports in Jiangsu. However, the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet, and the future arrival volume change depends on the impact of Iranian cargo and the progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. The coal - based methanol production rate in the inland area has rebounded, and the traditional downstream industries have seen a decline in production rates to varying degrees [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Supply - **Port supply**: The overseas methanol operating rate is 73.34% (unchanged). The weekly import volume of methanol in China is 460,500 tons (+71,400 tons), with 407,200 tons arriving in East China (+77,300 tons) and 53,300 tons in South China (-5,900 tons) [1] - **Inland supply**: China's methanol operating rate is 89.53% (+4.50%), including a coal - based methanol operating rate of 84.16% (+1.04%), a natural - gas methanol operating rate of 50.79% (unchanged), and a coke - oven gas methanol operating rate of 60.79% (-0.19%). The operating rates in different regions vary, with the Northwest at 93.90% (+5.50%), North China at 70.92% (+9.67%), Central China at 81.47% (+3.85%), East China at 84.83% (+1.16%), and Southwest at 84.61% (-1.09%) [1] Demand - **Port demand**: The average weekly pick - up volume in Taicang is 3,389 tons per day (unchanged). The weekly procurement volume of MTO enterprises in East China is 314,700 tons (+286,100 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 86.28% (+3.82%) [1] - **Inland demand**: The pending order volume of methanol enterprises is 115,240 tons (-157,782 tons). The raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream sample enterprises is 18,720 tons (-17,580 tons). The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE export factories, and dimethyl ether are 34.49% (-5.56%), 82.96% (-0.74%), 64.12% (-0.39%), and 4.98% (-1.27%) respectively. The weekly procurement volume of MTO enterprises in the Northwest is 46,200 tons (-32,300 tons), and the operating rate of MTO enterprises is 93.19% (+1.30%) [2] Inventory - **Port inventory**: The total methanol port inventory is 1,543,230 tons (+51,040 tons), including 793,000 tons in Jiangsu (+14,000 tons), 287,500 tons in Zhejiang (+33,800 tons), 300,000 tons in Guangdong (+7,000 tons), and 162,730 tons in Fujian (-3,760 tons). The methanol inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 660,000 tons (-40,000 tons), and the methanol inventory of downstream sample enterprises is 170,700 tons (-15,900 tons) [2] - **Inland inventory**: The methanol factory inventory in the Chinese inland area is 339,400 tons (+19,460 tons), including 204,000 tons in the Northwest (-4,000 tons), 29,500 tons in North China (+10,500 tons), 12,900 tons in Central China (-2,550 tons), 67,850 tons in East China (+12,050 tons), and 23,500 tons in Southwest (+3,500 tons) [2] Market Analysis - **Port**: Sino - US trade conflicts intensify the risk of sanctions on Iranian cargo. The docking of Iranian cargo at major ports in Jiangsu may be affected, which short - term boosts the port market. However, the inventory inflection point has not appeared, and the Iranian operating rate is still high. The future arrival volume change mainly depends on the impact of Iranian cargo and the progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. Although the Sino - US trade war drags down the chemical industry, methanol is relatively resistant to decline among chemical varieties [3] - **Inland**: The coal - based methanol operating rate rebounds again, and the inland inventory is rising from a low level, weakening the support for the port. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde have declined to varying degrees [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: No strategy provided - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low - **Inter - commodity**: Go short on the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation pace at ports has slowed down. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port demand has rebounded, but the subsequent arrival pressure remains high, and the key variable is when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2]. - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories remains low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for port - to - inland methanol flow is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3]. - Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its production start - up, the export of MTBE has improved, driving its start - up rate to rise from a low level, and the formaldehyde start - up rate has remained stable. Overall, the start - up rates of acetic acid and MTBE are still low [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 785 yuan/ton (- 25). Inner Mongolia's north - line methanol price is 2090 yuan/ton (- 25), and the basis is 344 yuan/ton (+ 5); Inner Mongolia's south - line is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2355 yuan/ton (- 35), Henan is 2200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Hebei is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged). The inventory of inland factories is 340,480 tons (- 2080), and the inventory of northwest factories is 225,500 tons (+ 4200). The pending orders of inland factories are 233,776 tons (- 16,947), and those of northwest factories are 115,700 tons (- 20,900) [1]. - **Ports**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2247 yuan/ton (- 35), the basis is - 99 yuan/ton (- 5), CFR China is 264 US dollars/ton (- 1), and the import price difference in East China is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 2). The total port inventory is 1,557,770 tons (+ 7440), with Jiangsu at 787,000 tons (- 17,000), Zhejiang at 286,900 tons (+ 1400), and Guangdong at 303,000 tons (+ 29,000). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 83.81% (+ 2.24%) [2]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 10 yuan/ton (+ 25), and the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 393 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Ports**: The inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The restart of MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand, but the subsequent arrival pressure is still large, and the key lies in the Iranian winter inspection plan [2]. - **Inland**: The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up has passed, but it will not reach a high level until later. The inland factory inventory is low, and the inland is stronger than the ports. The port - to - inland flow window is important for port prices. Traditional downstream industries have different start - up situations, with acetic acid and MTBE start - up rates still low [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy is provided [4]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The port is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the port basis is weak. The overall situation is that the inland market is stronger than the port market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inland demand resilience [1][3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple charts show the basis of methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences between different regions (such as Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][31] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The charts present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [33][34][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - Different regional price differences are shown, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [38][43][46] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, leading to significant pressure on Chinese imports and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The MTO plant in Xingxing has a pending maintenance plan, and attention should also be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry in traditional downstream sectors is in a seasonal off - season, the operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable, and the inland demand shows strong resilience. The inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant, resulting in a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report includes figures showing the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol spot in different regions against the main futures contract, and the inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][10][20]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures are presented for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [24][25][29]. 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory The report shows figures related to the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall operation rate of Chinese methanol production (including integrated plants) [32][33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences Figures are provided for various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [37][45][48]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55][57]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell short and hedge on the 09 contract when the price is high [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to weaken first and then strengthen in the second half of the year. In the short term, due to the easing of the Iran - Israel geopolitical conflict, the resumption of Iranian plants, and concentrated arrivals in July, the market is entering a inventory - accumulation cycle. However, high overseas gas prices may lead to earlier and more severe winter maintenance in Iran in the fourth quarter, and there is concentrated downstream production capacity coming on - stream in the fourth quarter, which will improve the supply - demand situation [1][8][9]. - For the 01 contract, it is expected to be weak in the third quarter and strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait for a callback to a low level to look for long - position opportunities in the fourth quarter. In terms of inter - period spreads, the 09 contract is more related to the current inventory - accumulation situation, the 01 contract is more about trading the expectation of Iranian winter maintenance. The 9 - 1 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage at high levels, and the 1 - 5 spread is suitable for positive arbitrage at low levels [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - In 2025, the nominal new methanol production capacity is temporarily set at 335 million tons per year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 4.6%. The production capacity has basically been realized, including the 170 - million - ton - per - year MaOil 3 that started production at the end of 2024 and plans to gradually resume production in July, and the 165 - million - ton - per - year Iranian apadana that started production in April 2025 with a low load [6][19]. - The Iran - Israel geopolitical conflict in mid - June 2025 led to the concentrated shutdown of Iranian plants, but then the conflict eased and the plant operation rate gradually recovered. However, due to high gas prices, it is expected that Iranian winter maintenance will be earlier and more severe this year [6]. - From April to May 2025, the inventory at Jiangsu ports was at a seasonal low, and the Taicang basis once reached 170 yuan/ton. After the Iran - Israel conflict in mid - June, the basis further increased. After the conflict eased, the port inventory increased, but the basis reached 400 yuan/ton, indicating limited tradable inventory. After the paper - goods delivery in June, the port basis dropped to around 160 yuan/ton in July [6][51]. - For new MTO projects, Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO (with a methanol demand of 1.3 million tons per year) is planned to start production around November 2025, and Guangxi Huayi MTO (with a methanol demand of 2.6 million tons per year) is planned to start production at the end of 2025 or early 2026. Some MTO enterprises plan to reduce production or shut down, and attention should be paid to the load changes of enterprises such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Xingxing, and Fude [6]. Market Analysis - The short - term market is entering an inventory - accumulation cycle due to the resumption of Iranian plants and concentrated arrivals in July. But in the fourth quarter, high overseas gas prices may lead to earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance, and concentrated downstream production capacity coming on - stream will improve the supply - demand situation [1][8][9]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis External New Devices - The original expected overseas new production capacity in 2025 was 5 million tons per year with a growth rate of 6.8%, but due to the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the 1.65 - million - ton - per - year Iranian dena plant's production start was postponed. The new production capacity is now 3.35 million tons per year with a growth rate of 4.6%, and the production capacity has basically been realized [19]. Overseas Existing Devices - In 2025, there were two periods of low operation rates: the Iranian winter maintenance period before March and the period of concentrated shutdowns due to the Iran - Israel conflict in mid - June. After the conflict eased, the Iranian plant operation rate gradually recovered. The overall overseas methanol operation rate is high, with a high rate in Iran and a low rate in non - Iranian regions [24]. - From January to May 2025, China's monthly average methanol imports decreased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The high gas price in the Netherlands may lead to earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance this year [24][26]. - The South American operation rate has been low since the end of 2024, and the volume from South America to China remains low. The operation rates in North America and Europe were low from January to March but rebounded in the second quarter. The New Zealand operation rate has declined since October 2024, and the volume to China has reached a historical low, while the volume from MaOil to China increased significantly in May 2025 [28][32][38]. Internal - External Price Ratio - From April to May 2025, the import window calculated based on China's spot price was briefly opened, but the paper - goods and futures still had a certain discount. The price differences between Europe, America, Southeast Asia and China have decreased, indicating that the port price in China is relatively overvalued [49]. Port Inventory - Due to the previous decline in imports, the inventory at Jiangsu ports was at a seasonal low from April to May, and the Taicang basis increased. After the conflict eased, the inventory increased, but the basis further increased, indicating limited tradable inventory. After the paper - goods delivery in June, the port basis dropped in July [51]. - The inventory at Zhejiang ports and the methanol inventory of MTO enterprises are higher than the same period last year, while the inventory at South China ports is at a seasonal low. With the arrival of imports in July and the expected maintenance of some MTO plants, the ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July [56]. MTO New Situation - For integrated MTO, the three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng have all been put into production. For external - purchase MTO, Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO is planned to start production around November 2025, and Guangxi Huayi MTO is planned to start production at the end of 2025 or early 2026. The new production capacity is more concentrated from the fourth quarter to the end of the year [65]. MTO Existing Devices - The loss of external - purchase MTO reached a historical low in June 2025, and some MTO enterprises plan to reduce production or shut down. The current MTO profit is at a historical low, and the load changes of MTO enterprises will affect the short - term price trend [70]. Regional Price Difference - The port inventory is low, and the port price is relatively overvalued compared with the inland price. The arbitrage windows from Inner Mongolia to East China and from Lunan to Taicang have been opened. After the weakening of MTBE operation, the price difference between Lubei and the Northwest is low. The arbitrage window from Sichuan - Chongqing to East China has also been opened. After the paper - goods delivery, the valuation in East China declined in July [76]. Inland Supply - Demand Analysis Inland Methanol New Situation - In 2025, the planned methanol production capacity is 10.9 million tons, including 2.6 million tons per year of non - integrated methanol (1.1 million tons per year has been realized, but the load of Xinjiang Zhongtai is not high) with a non - integrated nominal capacity growth rate of 2.9% and an actual growth rate of 1.3%, and 10.3 million tons per year of integrated methanol (8.4 million tons per year has been realized, from Baofeng's three lines). The non - integrated production pressure is not large [79]. Inland Existing Device Load - The coal - to - methanol production profit is high, and the operation rate is at a high level. The non - integrated coal - based methanol had a spring maintenance from early March to late April, and the operation rate decreased, but it was higher than the historical average in other periods due to good production profits [85]. - Due to high gas prices, the gas - based methanol is in greater losses and has a low operation rate. The coke - oven gas - based methanol spring maintenance period has passed [89][90]. Non - Integrated Coal - Based - The non - integrated coal - based methanol operation rate is at a high level due to good production profits. Although coal prices may rise seasonally in summer, the production profit of coal - to - methanol is still high, and the operation rate is expected to remain high [85]. Gas - Based - Due to high gas prices, the losses of gas - based methanol have increased, and the operation rate is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility of additional loss - based maintenance of gas - based methanol [89]. Coke - Oven Gas - Based - The spring maintenance period of coke - oven gas - based methanol has passed, and there is a certain correlation between its operation rate and the coking operation rate [90][94]. Inland Inventory - In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises is generally lower than that in 2024, indicating strong demand from traditional downstream industries. The inventory of east - China enterprises is also healthy, and the pending orders are satisfactory [98]. Traditional Downstream - Among traditional downstream industries, the cumulative output growth rate of formaldehyde from January to May was 23%, MTBE was 8.6%, while the growth rate of acetic acid and BDO slowed down significantly. The operation rate of MTBE declined in May due to factors such as a decline in export growth and a decrease in gasoline consumption. Although the operation rate of acetic acid is acceptable, the production profit has been compressed. The production and operation of formaldehyde are satisfactory, and the demand for dimethyl ether has been decreasing [101][105]. Traditional Downstream New Situation - In 2025, the new nominal methanol demand converted from traditional downstream industries is 5.59 million tons per year, reaching a historical high. The main contribution comes from the acetic acid production plan, which is postponed to the second half of the year, especially concentrated in the fourth quarter. BDO also has concentrated production in the fourth quarter. The new production of traditional downstream industries in Q3 and Q4 will drive the nominal methanol demand by 1.2% and 3.1% respectively [123]. Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the end of the Iranian conflict, the resumption of Iranian plants, high arrival pressure in July, and the expected MTO maintenance, the port market is expected to accumulate inventory in July, and the market is weak. The port price in East China is relatively overvalued compared with the inland price. - However, due to high gas prices, there is an expectation of earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the expected start - up of Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO in November and the concentrated production of traditional downstream industries in Q4. There is an opportunity to participate in long positions in the fourth quarter after the methanol price回调s. The 09 contract reflects the weak current situation, and the 01 contract reflects strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage at high levels [125].