甲醇周报 | 2025-10-12 关注伊朗船货靠港影响 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 港口方面，中美贸易冲突加剧，涉伊船货被制裁风险，后续伊朗船货到江苏主流港口的靠港或受影响，港口短期 提振，关注后续进展。而现实基本面看，库存拐点仍未出现，伊朗开工仍偏高，冬检计划仍未公布，后续到港量 的边际变化主要关注涉伊船货影响程度与中美贸易冲突的进展。中国稀土出口管制后，特朗普扬言要大幅加征对 中国商品关税，中美贸易战升级对化工板块整体拖累，但由于涉伊船货受制裁风险影响，甲醇于化工板块内部跨 品种相对抗跌。 内地方面，煤头甲醇开工率再度回升，内地库存低位回升，对港口支撑有所减弱。传统下游方面，醋酸、MTBE、 甲醛开工均有不同程度回落。 策略 单边：无 跨期：MA2601-MA2605逢低做正套 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率73.34%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量46.05万吨（+7.14），其中华东到港量 40.72万吨（+7.73），华南到港量5.33万吨（-0.59）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率89.53%（+4.50%），其中煤制甲醇开工率84.16%（+1.04%）、天然气甲醇开工率50.79 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation pace at ports has slowed down. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port demand has rebounded, but the subsequent arrival pressure remains high, and the key variable is when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2]. - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories remains low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for port - to - inland methanol flow is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3]. - Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its production start - up, the export of MTBE has improved, driving its start - up rate to rise from a low level, and the formaldehyde start - up rate has remained stable. Overall, the start - up rates of acetic acid and MTBE are still low [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 785 yuan/ton (- 25). Inner Mongolia's north - line methanol price is 2090 yuan/ton (- 25), and the basis is 344 yuan/ton (+ 5); Inner Mongolia's south - line is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2355 yuan/ton (- 35), Henan is 2200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Hebei is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged). The inventory of inland factories is 340,480 tons (- 2080), and the inventory of northwest factories is 225,500 tons (+ 4200). The pending orders of inland factories are 233,776 tons (- 16,947), and those of northwest factories are 115,700 tons (- 20,900) [1]. - **Ports**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2247 yuan/ton (- 35), the basis is - 99 yuan/ton (- 5), CFR China is 264 US dollars/ton (- 1), and the import price difference in East China is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 2). The total port inventory is 1,557,770 tons (+ 7440), with Jiangsu at 787,000 tons (- 17,000), Zhejiang at 286,900 tons (+ 1400), and Guangdong at 303,000 tons (+ 29,000). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 83.81% (+ 2.24%) [2]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 10 yuan/ton (+ 25), and the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 393 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Ports**: The inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The restart of MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand, but the subsequent arrival pressure is still large, and the key lies in the Iranian winter inspection plan [2]. - **Inland**: The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up has passed, but it will not reach a high level until later. The inland factory inventory is low, and the inland is stronger than the ports. The port - to - inland flow window is important for port prices. Traditional downstream industries have different start - up situations, with acetic acid and MTBE start - up rates still low [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy is provided [4]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

港口延续累库周期，港口供应方面，甲醇海外开工整体开工仍偏高，8月到港压力进一步上升，而下游MTO装置兴 兴于7月底兑现检修1个月。内地方面，煤头甲醇开工最低点已过，但待下旬才回升至高位；甲醇内地工厂库存进 一步下降，总体仍是内地强于港口的格局，但前期高开工的醋酸开工有所见顶回落，甲醛季节性淡季，等待进一 步底部回升，仍关注内地需求韧性的持续情况。 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-12 港口处于累库周期，港口基差偏弱 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润688元/吨（+13）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2103元/吨（+13），内蒙北线基差314元/吨（+7），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2368元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差179元/吨（+9）；河南2250元/吨（-10），河南基差61元/吨（-16）；河北2275元/吨（+0），河北基差146元/ 吨（-6）。隆众内地工厂库存293688吨（-30832），西北工厂库存185500吨（-30500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240800 吨（+10075），西北工厂待发订单1228 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, leading to significant pressure on Chinese imports and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The MTO plant in Xingxing has a pending maintenance plan, and attention should also be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry in traditional downstream sectors is in a seasonal off - season, the operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable, and the inland demand shows strong resilience. The inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant, resulting in a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report includes figures showing the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol spot in different regions against the main futures contract, and the inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][10][20]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures are presented for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [24][25][29]. 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory The report shows figures related to the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall operation rate of Chinese methanol production (including integrated plants) [32][33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences Figures are provided for various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [37][45][48]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55][57]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell short and hedge on the 09 contract when the price is high [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided [3].

期货研究报告 | 化工组 化工半年报 谨慎逢低做多套保。伊朗地缘冲突放缓，伊朗装置复产，炒作暂过 7 月到港仍集中，现实偏进入累库周期。但海外气价偏高，四季度仍有 伊朗冬检提前或加剧的预期，且四季度的下游投产集中，预期下半年走势先走弱再走强。跨期方面，09 合约偏向现实累库，01 合约偏向 交易伊朗冬检，9-1 价差偏向逢高做反套，1-5 价差偏向于逢低做正套。 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 化工板块研究 Chemical Research 本期分析研究员 梁宗泰 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 吴硕琮 从业资格号： F03119179 杨露露 从业资格号： F03128371 2025 年 07 月 06 日 期货研究报告 | 甲醇半年报 2025-07-06 伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现 市场要闻与重要数据 2025 年名义新增产能暂仅放在 335 万吨/年，名义产能增速在 4.6%，已基 本兑现，分别是 2024 年底投产的马油 3#170 万吨/年，投产后停车时间较多， 7 月计划 ...