Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

沪产绿色甲醇拿下全流程双认证 10 万吨级项目年底投产，计划明年春节前完成上海港首单加注 最近，上海10万吨级绿色甲醇项目迎来重大里程碑，目前已取得原料供应、甲醇生产和贸易储运加注 ISCC EU与PLUS全流程双认证证书，这意味着沪产第一桶绿色甲醇得到了欧盟乃至全球市场的"绿色认 证"。 制备工艺和项目建设只是绿色甲醇商业化的第一步，拿下全球市场的通行认证才是上海港加注能力 的"金字招牌"。 据悉，ISCC（国际可持续发展和碳认证体系）认证是当前国际公认和最为通用的一种认证体系，其 中，ISCC EU认证是绿色产品进入欧盟能源市场的强制认证，适用于欧盟可再生能源指令（RED Ⅱ） 中规定的生物燃料、生物液体和生物质燃料等产品的可持续性标准要求。ISCC PLUS认证适用于欧盟以 外的能源和各种化工品、塑料、食品等产品，在全球范围内拥有极高的认可度。 "拿下ISCC EU与PLUS全流程双重认证，意味着加注项目生产的绿色甲醇，准许进入欧盟市场，还能帮 助上海港规避贸易风险并参与碳减排交易。"业内人士表示，相当于沪产绿色甲醇拿到了参与全球竞争 的绿色通行证。 今年年底前，上海10万吨级绿色甲醇项目将建成投产，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to experience a recovery due to easing supply pressures starting from mid to late September, driven by the upcoming consumption peak season and new MTO production capacity coming online [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has faced bottlenecks, with overall capacity utilization at a high of 84.58%, limiting further increases in output [2] - The resumption of production in various regions has been gradual, with a total daily output not exceeding 10,000 tons in September [2] - Iran's gas supply risks are anticipated to significantly impact methanol imports, as the government prioritizes residential gas supply over industrial use starting in October [3] Demand Factors - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is expected to improve traditional downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and textile sectors, which will drive methanol demand [4] - The MTO industry is projected to be the main driver of methanol demand in Q4, with both existing facilities restarting and new capacity coming online [4][5] - The Shandong Lianhong New Materials' 1 million tons/year MTO project is set to be a highlight in Q4, requiring external methanol sourcing [4] Market Outlook - The combination of recovering demand from traditional sectors and the MTO industry's growth is expected to alleviate supply pressures in the methanol market, leading to a potential price rebound [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The impact of anti - involution policies on methanol production is likely limited, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, MA01 closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.44%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2461 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.08%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, prices in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2355 yuan/ton, in Sichuan - Chongqing by 10 yuan/ton (0.44%) to 2260 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 15 yuan/ton (0.63%) to 2390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 22.5 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2125 yuan/ton. Prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) to 2142.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 121 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.99%) to 510 yuan/ton, and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.33%) to 570 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price in Chongqing decreased by 0.11 yuan/cubic meter (- 3.33%) to 3.19 yuan/cubic meter [1] b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 438.9 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 88 yuan/ton (17.60%) to - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 20 yuan/ton (98.04%) to 40.4 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO increased by 16.5 yuan/ton (2.56%) to - 627.07 yuan/ton. The profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.54 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) to 200.39 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 30 yuan/ton (- 22.08%) to 105.88 yuan/ton [1] c) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,359 lots, and the open interest was 345,050 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In the past two days, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1] d) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2384 at night. The expected anti - involution policy will still fluctuate, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the green methanol project, with an investment of approximately 15 billion yuan, marks a significant step towards establishing a sustainable energy and chemical industry in Fujian's Gulei Development Zone [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to produce 1 million tons of green methanol annually, leveraging Gulei's offshore wind power resources and Charoen Pokphand Group's biomass resources [1] - The project will also extend to the production of green sustainable aviation fuel and downstream products like green jet fuel, creating a "green energy + green chemical" industrial chain [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project is expected to accelerate the construction of a national-level zero-carbon park in Gulei and establish a world-class high-end smart green petrochemical base [1] - It will enhance Charoen Pokphand Group's investment layout in Fujian, facilitating the transition from decarbonized agriculture to decarbonized energy and chemicals [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **International Natural Gas and Import Profit**: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Profit**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - **MTO Device and Traditional Downstream**: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and innovative spirit of Hou Zhongwen, a senior technician at CNOOC's Fudao Company, who has significantly contributed to the maintenance and repair of equipment, showcasing the importance of skilled labor in the oil and chemical industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Professional Achievements - Hou has been recognized as a national labor model for his unwavering commitment to his craft and his role in ensuring the smooth operation of equipment [1][4]. - He has successfully completed over 6000 maintenance projects, accumulating 18,000 safe maintenance hours, which contributed to record-long operational periods for two major production units [5]. - In a critical situation in January 2022, he led a team to repair a malfunctioning carbon dioxide compressor in just 2.5 days, setting a record for similar equipment repairs [4][5]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - Hou's determination to repair imported equipment led to a significant breakthrough when he resolved a critical failure in a magnetic pump that foreign experts deemed necessary to replace, saving the company substantial costs and time [6][7]. - Over 17 years, he has spearheaded more than 300 technical modifications and achieved 180 successful technology transfers, resulting in the domestic upgrade of core components and avoiding 18 instances of equipment downtime [7][8]. Group 3: Talent Development - As a leader in a national model labor and craftsman talent innovation studio, Hou emphasizes the importance of mentoring and training, implementing a hands-on training method that enhances practical skills [8]. - Under his guidance, participants in national skill competitions achieved top rankings, showcasing the effectiveness of his training methods and contributing to the development of a skilled workforce [8].