Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the implementation of the Gansu 136 document, which outlines a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects, with a mechanism price set at 0.3078 yuan/kWh for existing projects [2][15]. - The establishment of electricity spot markets is accelerating, with seven regions expected to have operational markets by the end of 2025, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [3][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential for stable profitability in the thermal power sector due to synchronized declines in coal and electricity prices [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.37%, while the public utility index fell by 0.55%, and the environmental index increased by 1.72% [14][23]. - Within the power sector, thermal power decreased by 1.55%, hydropower by 1.26%, and new energy generation by 0.08% [24]. Important Policies and Events - The Gansu provincial government issued a plan to promote high-quality development of renewable energy, specifying a total of 154 billion kWh for existing projects under the new pricing mechanism [2][15]. - The plan allows for competitive bidding for electricity prices within set limits, with a 12-year execution period for new projects starting from June 2025 [15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [21][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability due to growth in installed capacity and generation [21]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes in a declining interest rate environment [21]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - A table lists various companies with their investment ratings, including Huadian International (Outperform), Longyuan Power (Outperform), and Yangtze Power (Outperform), along with their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 and 2025 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand pattern was marginally loose, and prices declined. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand looseness, falling primary energy prices, accelerated power spot market construction, and the full - scale participation of new energy in market transactions [68][69]. - In different regional power spot markets that have been officially launched, electricity prices in various regions are expected to show different degrees of decline, with varying influencing factors and characteristics in each region [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Power Market in the First Half of 2025 1.1 Power Supply - From January to April 2025, the newly installed power generation capacity reached 141 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 58.2%. Solar energy had the largest increase, with new capacity of 105 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 74.6%. Wind and thermal power also showed rapid growth, while hydropower slightly decreased, and nuclear power had no new installations [6]. - The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to April 2025 were 1008 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 103 hours. The growth rate of power generation significantly slowed down. The proportion of thermal power generation continued to decline, while other power sources increased to varying degrees [8]. 1.2 Power Demand - From January to April 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society was 3156.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Although the electricity consumption growth rate recovered month by month, it was still relatively low compared to the high - base growth last year. The main reasons included the leap - year effect, warm - winter weather, industrial structure adjustment, and weak external demand [15]. 1.3 Power Price - From January to May 2025, the overall pattern of industrial and commercial agency power purchase prices across the country was "more declines than increases." As of May, the average price was 387.3 yuan per megawatt - hour, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. There was a further differentiation in prices among regions [22]. 2. Outlook for the Power Market in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Macro Outlook - **Supply - side**: The newly installed power generation capacity is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. It is estimated that the total power generation in 2025 will reach 11.6 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [24]. - **Demand - side**: The GDP elasticity coefficient of power consumption in 2025 is expected to drop to around the 2022 - 2023 level. The total national electricity consumption is expected to be 10.4 trillion kilowatt - hours, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 5.9% [25]. - **Supply - demand relationship**: The calculated power generation - to - consumption ratio is only 89.6%, indicating that the power market supply - demand is becoming looser [28]. - **Cost factor**: The prices of primary energy such as thermal coal and natural gas have continued to decline, weakening the cost support for electricity prices [30]. - **Market mechanism factor**: The construction of the power spot market has accelerated, and new energy has fully participated in market transactions, both of which will put downward pressure on electricity prices [32][37]. 2.2 Outlook for Electricity Prices in Spot Markets that have been Officially Launched - **Guangdong**: The power market is generally in a state of loose supply - demand. Electricity prices are expected to continue the year - on - year decline trend, but the construction of the southern regional power market may cause some disturbances [38][50]. - **Shanxi**: Electricity prices are expected to gradually approach the cost of coal - fired power and continue to decline under the background of the downward cycle of coal - fired power [51]. - **Shandong**: With the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy and limited demand growth, the spot electricity price still has room to decline [55]. - **Gansu**: The proportion of new energy is high, and electricity prices will face long - term downward pressure. The high volatility of electricity prices is expected to continue due to the high sensitivity to climate conditions [60][63]. - **Western Inner Mongolia**: The proportion of new energy power is expected to increase, and the willingness of thermal power to bid high is weak. The spot price is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is relatively limited as the current price is already at a low level [64][67]. 3. Conclusion - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand was marginally loose, and prices declined. In the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Different regions will have different trends in electricity prices [68][69][70].

Summary of AIDC Power Equipment and Wind Power Weekly Data and Insights Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the AIDC power equipment and wind power industry, highlighting key developments and trends in the sector for 2025 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Grid Investment Growth**: In March 2025, grid engineering investment reached 52 billion, marking an 18% year-on-year increase, continuing a double-digit growth trend from January to February [5][6]. 2. **Nuclear Power Projects Approval**: The State Council approved five nuclear power projects, totaling ten units, maintaining a consistent approval pace that boosts demand for nuclear equipment and related components [7]. 3. **Electricity Spot Market Development**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the construction of inter-provincial electricity spot markets, indicating a shift into the second phase of market development [8][3]. 4. **Trade Policy Adaptation**: Domestic leading companies are adapting to U.S. trade policy risks through capacity transfer and production adjustments, with clients showing a high acceptance of tariff pass-through [9]. 5. **Investment in Digital Energy**: Guoneng Rixin plans to acquire a 20% stake in Tibet Dongrun Digital Energy Co., which is expected to enhance industry concentration [10]. 6. **Smart Meter Tendering**: The first tender for smart meters by the State Grid saw a 25% decrease in quantity and a 35% decrease in value, but the launch of the new 24th version smart meter is expected to reverse the declining trend in unit value [13][14]. 7. **Wind Power Project Progress**: The offshore wind projects are advancing, with expectations for a performance turnaround in Q2 2025, while onshore wind components are seeing increases in both quantity and price [2][16]. 8. **Copper and Aluminum Price Trends**: Recent weeks have seen a slight increase in copper and aluminum prices, while black raw material prices have decreased by approximately 5% to 10% since the beginning of the year, positively impacting component manufacturers' profitability [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Distributed Renewable Energy Growth**: The installation ratio of distributed renewable energy is expected to increase in 2025 to meet future consumption needs [11]. - **Power and Grid Investment Trends**: Power investment is showing a slight decline compared to last year, while grid investment continues to grow, indicating a positive economic cycle [12]. - **European Offshore Wind Market Outlook**: The European offshore wind market is anticipated to reach a bidding turning point in 2025, with optimism for the second half of the year [17]. - **Sector-Specific Performance**: Recent performance in the wind power sector shows significant growth in components like bearings and castings, with expectations for margin recovery in the onshore wind segment by Q3 2025 [18]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical developments and forecasts within the AIDC power equipment and wind power sectors, providing insights into investment opportunities and market dynamics for 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction in China, aiming for full coverage by 2025, which is expected to enhance the flexibility of coal power generation and improve resource allocation in peak regulation and frequency modulation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) increased by 0.15%, with notable gains from Huadian Heavy Industries (2.07%), Dingsheng Technology (1.77%), and Guodian NARI Technology (1.42%) [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.38%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.05 yuan [3]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth of 515.49 million yuan in scale over the past six months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count increased by 9 million shares in the same period, also placing it in the top third of comparable funds [4]. - As of May 7, 2025, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 84.32% [4]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5]. - The index tracked by the ETF is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.4, below 98.08% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [5]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Yangtze Power (10.48%), Guodian NARI Technology (7.31%), and China Nuclear Power (6.30%), collectively accounting for 51.18% of the index [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction and the publication of top-level planning for auxiliary services, which is expected to rationalize pricing mechanisms and re-evaluate the value of green electricity [5][6]. - The establishment of a nationwide unified electricity market is anticipated to transform electricity pricing from a multi-track system to a multi-dimensional pricing approach based on different attributes of electricity [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 6449.5, with a 52-week high of 8068.94 and a low of 5403.16 [2]. Electricity Market Development - Official provinces for the electricity spot market include Hubei by the end of June 2025, Zhejiang by the end of 2025, and Anhui and Shaanxi aiming for June 2026 [6]. - Continuous settlement trial provinces are expected to include Fujian, Sichuan, and others by the end of 2025 [6]. Auxiliary Services Market - The market will involve entities with measurable and controllable capabilities, including thermal power, hydropower, and new operational entities like energy storage companies [7]. - The fee transmission mechanism will involve users sharing costs based on electricity consumption and untraded electricity generation [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "energy transition-friendly" comprehensive energy suppliers with high decision-making flexibility, such as Guoneng Rixin and Longxin Group, as well as companies like JinkoSolar, which may benefit from the re-evaluation of green electricity value [8].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][10] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction and the publication of top-level planning for auxiliary services, which is expected to rationalize the pricing mechanism and re-evaluate the value of green electricity [5][6] - The establishment of a nationwide unified electricity market is anticipated to help transition electricity pricing from a multi-track system to a multi-dimensional pricing approach based on different attributes of electricity [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 6449.5, with a 52-week high of 8068.94 and a low of 5403.16 [2] Electricity Market Construction - Official provinces for the electricity spot market transition include Hubei by the end of June 2025, Zhejiang by the end of 2025, and Anhui and Shaanxi aiming for June 2026 [6] - Continuous settlement trial provinces are expected to include Fujian, Sichuan, and others by the end of 2025 [6] Auxiliary Services Market - The market will involve entities with measurable and controllable capabilities, including thermal power, hydropower, and new operational entities like energy storage companies [7] - The fee transmission mechanism will involve users sharing the costs of auxiliary services based on their electricity consumption [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "energy transition-friendly" comprehensive energy suppliers with high decision-making flexibility, such as Guoneng Rixin and Longxin Group, as well as companies like JinkoSolar, which may benefit from the re-evaluation of green electricity value [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation timeline and requirements for the construction of the electricity spot market in China, as outlined in the recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [2][3]. Group 1: Timeline for Electricity Spot Market - The Hubei electricity spot market is set to officially operate by the end of June 2025, while the Zhejiang market aims for the end of 2025 [2]. - Anhui and Shaanxi are targeting to transition to formal operation by the end of June 2026 [2]. - By the end of 2025, several provinces including Fujian, Sichuan, and others are expected to initiate trial operations for continuous settlement in the spot market [2]. Group 2: Requirements for Market Operation - A province's electricity spot market can transition to formal operation after running continuously for over a year and meeting the conditions set by the "Basic Rules for Electricity Spot Market (Trial)" [3]. - The evaluation for transitioning to formal operation must be conducted by an independent third-party organization that has not participated in the local market's rule-making or technical support [3]. - The formal operation of the spot market requires approval from the provincial government and must be reported to the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [3]. Group 3: Participation and Mechanisms - By the end of 2025, provinces with operational spot markets must enable user-side entities to participate in market applications, clearing, and settlement [3]. - New mechanisms for market entry, registration, pricing, and settlement assessments must be established to accommodate new business entities [3]. - The long-term contract fulfillment ratio for participants in the spot market must align with national energy security supply requirements [3].

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 29, the coke futures main contract 2509 saw its center of gravity decline for three consecutive trading days, giving back most of the gains since April 23. The coking coal futures main contract 2509 weakened again, approaching the previous low of 924 yuan/ton set on April 22 [7]. - It is expected that in the first half of May, the coke and coking coal markets will stabilize and rebound after a second bottom - testing. One can try to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices during the above time period when the technical and fundamental aspects resonate, or try to buy the far - month 2509 contract for hedging or investment at low prices after the coal and coke prices stabilize [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On April 29, the KDJ indicators of the daily lines of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts showed a golden cross. The MACD red bar of the daily line of the coke 2509 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days, and the MACD red bar of the daily line of the coking coal 2509 contract turned to a slight narrowing [10]. - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1440 yuan/ton, and the price in Tangshan was 1370 yuan/ton with no change. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remained stable [10]. 3.1.2 Outlook - Coke: Downstream steel mills' production has further increased, and coking plants have significantly increased production for six consecutive weeks. After the inventories of steel mills and coking plants decreased significantly, they turned to a slight increase, while the port inventory declined from a high level. The coke price rebound requires the improvement of the finished steel market. It is expected that the coke market may improve following the finished steel in the first half of May [11]. - Coking Coal: In March, imports increased from the previous high, but the growth rate slowed down compared to January - February. The domestic coal industry still emphasizes the principle of ensuring supply. Although the output and operating rate of coal washing plants are significantly lower than those in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply remains loose. The significant decline in port inventory is positive, but the decline in steel mill inventory is not large. After coking plants actively replenish inventory, it will discount the subsequent price rebound. Whether the decline of coking coal can stop depends on whether the coke market can truly recover in the first half of May [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on accelerating the construction of the power spot market, with specific requirements for different regions' power spot markets to enter formal operation or start continuous settlement trial operation [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Basic Rules for the Power Auxiliary Service Market", requiring relevant departments to formulate and revise implementation rules for the auxiliary service market [12]. - As of the end of March 2025, the national local government debt balance was 5.0165 trillion yuan. In March 2025, the national issuance of local government bonds was 978.8 billion yuan [13]. - China Coal Industry Association conducted research in Zhejiang, emphasizing industry self - discipline, promoting coal supply - demand balance, and maintaining stable coal prices [13]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. held a performance briefing. In 2024, it achieved a total profit of 9.339 billion yuan, and in the first quarter of 2025, it achieved a total profit of 3.292 billion yuan. The impact of US tariff policies on its direct exports is minimal, and the impact of anti - dumping policies in South Korea and Vietnam is controllable [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest 6.266 billion yuan in 2025 [14]. - Yongtai Energy Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 28.357 billion yuan in 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.85%. The attributable net profit was 1.561 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 31.12%. The raw coal output in 2024 was 13.6801 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.46% [14]. - Liugang Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 1.7119 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 14.36%. The attributable net profit was 260 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 594.67% [14]. - Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 540 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 34.69%. The net profit was 152 million yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 79.50% [14]. - Zhejiang Energy Electric Power Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 1.76 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.09%. The attributable net profit was 1.074 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 40.81% [15]. - Jiangsu Guoxin Group Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 36.933 billion yuan in 2024, with a year - on - year increase of 6.83%. The attributable net profit was 3.238 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 73.12% [15]. - Shaanxi Iron and Steel Group and Shaanxi Black Cat Coking signed a strategic cooperation agreement [15]. - The average daily power generation of coal - fired power plants of power - generating groups included in the power industry fuel statistics increased by 8.1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year. The average daily coal consumption of power plants transported by sea increased by 8.0% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year [15]. - The 2025 spring centralized maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed three days ahead of schedule [16]. - Kaiyuan Securities gave a "Buy" rating to Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group Co., Ltd. [16]. - As of April 21, the annual cumulative coal transportation volume of the Shuohuang Railway exceeded 100 million tons [16]. - In the first quarter, the raw coal output of Ordos above - scale enterprises was 223.417 million tons, and the natural gas output was 8.34 billion cubic meters [16]. - Russia proposed to sign a government - to - government agreement with India to support the supply of coking coal and determine the supply of thermal coal [16]. - Whitehaven Coal Ltd.'s raw coal output in the third quarter of this fiscal year was 9.2 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter [16]. - If India adds 50,000 MW of renewable energy installed capacity annually, it can completely stop importing thermal coal by 2029 and save at least $173 billion from 2025 to 2034 [16]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants, the output and operating rate of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [18][19][24].

发改办体改〔2025〕394号 各省、自治区、直辖市、新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委、能源局，天津市工业和信息化局、内蒙古自治 区工业和信息化厅、辽宁省工业和信息化厅、广西壮族自治区工业和信息化厅、重庆市经济和信息化委 员会、四川省经济和信息化厅、甘肃省工业和信息化厅，北京市城市管理委员会，国家能源局各派出机 构，中国核工业集团有限公司、国家电网有限公司、中国南方电网有限责任公司、中国华能集团有限公 司、中国大唐集团有限公司、中国华电集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司、中国长江三峡集团 有限公司、国家能源投资集团有限责任公司、国家开发投资集团有限公司、华润（集团）有限公司、中 国广核集团有限责任公司、内蒙古电力（集团）有限责任公司，北京电力交易中心、广州电力交易中 心、中国电力企业联合会： 为贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，围绕构建全国统一大市场要求建设全国统一电力 市场，全面加快电力现货市场建设，2025年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖，全面开展连续结算运 行，充分发挥现货市场发现价格、调节供需的关键作用，现就有关工作通知如下： 一、湖北电力现货市场要在2025年6月底前、浙江电力现货市场要在 ...

文 | 国家发展改革委 4月29日，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能 源局综合司发布《关于全面加快电力现货市场建设工作的通知》 ，通知指出，全 面加快电力现货市场建设，2025年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖，全面开展连续结算运行，充分发挥现货市场发现价 格、调节供需的关键作用。 通知要求，湖北电力现货市场要在2025年6月底前、浙江电力现货市场要在2025年底前转入正式运行，安徽、陕西力争在 2026年6月底前转入正式运行。2025年底前，福建、四川、辽宁、重庆、湖南、宁夏、江苏、河北南网、江西、河南、上 海、吉林、黑龙江、新疆、蒙东、青海要启动现货市场连续结算试运行。 2025年底前，南方区域电力现货市场要启动连续结算试运行，京津冀电力市场要创造条件启动模拟试运行，省间现货市场要 实现发电企业参与省间现货购电，并加紧研究售电公司、电力用户直接参与省间现货交易的机制。 各省、自治区、直辖市、新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委、能源局，天津市工业和信息化局、内蒙古自治区工业和信息化厅、 辽宁省工业和信息化厅、广西壮族自治区工业和信息化厅、重庆市经济和信息化委员会、四川省经济和信息化厅、甘肃省工 业和信息化厅，北京市城市管 ...