今天分享的是：2025电力市场改革和新能源高质量发展 报告共计：32页 电力市场改革步入深水区，新能源高质量发展面临系统成本挑战 随着全球能源转型加速，电力市场改革与新能源高质量发展已成为不可回避的议题。近年来，中国在构建新型电力系统的过程中，既面临能源清洁化与安全 稳定的双重压力，也迎来电网投资增长与市场机制完善的重要机遇。在这一背景下，如何平衡"能源不可能三角"——即能源的清洁性、安全性与经济性，成 为电力系统转型的核心课题。 系统成本临界点已至，电力市场机制亟待完善 煤电建设"回潮"反映系统可靠性需求 尽管新能源快速发展，煤电核准与开工规模在近年出现波动上升。这一现象背后的逻辑在于，电力系统作为实时平衡系统，必须满足最高负荷需求。在储能 等灵活性资源尚未完全成熟的阶段，煤电因其建设周期短、出力稳定，仍在系统中承担重要保供作用。未来，随着抽水蓄能、新型储能、虚拟电厂等灵活性 资源规模扩大，煤电角色将逐步由主力电源转向调节性与保障性电源。 总结 当前，中国电力市场改革已进入以"消纳绿电为主线、安全为底线、央地协同为动力"的新阶段。全国统一电力市场建设与现货市场推进，将成为新型电力系 统构建的重要抓手。而在新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the progress of the national unified electricity market in China, with the recent transition of the Sichuan and Chongqing electricity spot market to continuous settlement trial operation, achieving the goal set by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration ahead of schedule [2][3]. Group 1 - The continuous settlement trial operation of the electricity spot market in Sichuan and Chongqing began on November 1, marking the completion of 18 provincial-level spot markets in operation, two months ahead of the 2025 target for nationwide coverage [2]. - The inter-provincial electricity spot market, which started trial operation in 2022, is set to officially operate on October 15, 2024, significantly enhancing the optimization of cross-province electricity resource allocation [2]. - In October, the first inter-regional electricity spot trading with the Southern Power Grid was conducted, with a maximum transaction of 1.8 million kilowatts and a total electricity volume of 4.23 million megawatt-hours, marking a key step in the construction of a unified national electricity market [2]. Group 2 - The company has actively promoted the construction of a national unified electricity market under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, forming a multi-level unified electricity market system characterized by "unified market and two-level operation" [3]. - The inter-provincial and intra-provincial electricity spot markets are operating efficiently in coordination, effectively playing a regulatory role in the market and providing strong support for electricity supply and energy transition [3]. - As the construction of the electricity spot market continues to advance, the organization of electricity production has largely transitioned to a market-oriented model, optimizing production organization methods and improving the efficiency and refinement of electricity production [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving an operating income of 38.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [1][8] - The company's internal business continues to solidify its leading position, while external business expansion has made significant breakthroughs, with major projects in renewable energy storage and hydropower monitoring contributing to substantial revenue growth [2][19] - The company is accelerating its global layout, successfully entering markets in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Brazil, Chile, and Nicaragua, and has developed key technologies such as a 300MW variable-speed pumped storage system and hydrogen-electric coupling energy management system [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.903 billion yuan, up 7.81% year-on-year but down 16.24% quarter-on-quarter [1][19] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 26.50%, down 3.13 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 14.11%, down 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [19] Business Development - The company has successfully deployed core products in the new generation dispatch system, electricity spot market, and distribution automation, enhancing its market share [2][19] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for power grid investment is expected to increase, with significant projects in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) expected to be tendered soon, which may lead to further growth in orders for the company [20] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.369 billion yuan, 9.462 billion yuan, and 10.716 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 21, and 19 times [3][21]

Group 1 - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial operation [1] - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - The inter-provincial spot market has demonstrated its capacity to alleviate supply pressure during peak electricity usage, with a maximum mutual assistance power of 14.32 million kilowatts recorded this summer [1] Group 2 - The guiding role of the spot market in the consumption of renewable energy has begun to show results, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] - Zhejiang's spot market has effectively utilized market price signals to guide users in shifting their electricity usage, achieving a peak load reduction of 3 million kilowatts [2] - The increasing share of renewable energy is significantly altering the operational characteristics of the power system, with negative electricity prices becoming a common issue in regions with high penetration of renewables [2] Group 3 - Future market development should focus on a multi-layered system that includes energy markets, capacity markets, and ancillary service markets to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent issuance of the "Guidelines for the Construction of Continuous Operation Areas of the Electricity Spot Market" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the importance of establishing a robust electricity spot market mechanism to support the green and low-carbon transition of energy and ensure reliable supply [2][3]. Group 1: Market Construction Goals - The guidelines propose a comprehensive framework for the construction and continuous operation of the electricity spot market, aiming to create a market system that discovers prices, encourages multi-entity participation, and ensures system safety and efficiency [3]. - Key objectives include optimizing the spot market clearing mechanism to reflect supply-demand relationships and cost adjustments, enhancing long-term trading mechanisms to stabilize investment expectations, and developing an auxiliary service market to support the new power system and high-quality energy development [3]. - The guidelines encourage the participation of new operational entities such as virtual power plants and energy storage, promoting joint bidding of "power source + storage" and breaking down barriers in market transactions [3]. Group 2: Shandong's Practical Implementation - Shandong, as a major province for renewable energy, faces unique challenges, including a higher installed capacity of renewable energy compared to coal power (49.63% of total installed capacity) and issues related to supply-demand mismatches [4][5]. - The province has effectively utilized the electricity spot market to discover price signals, leading to an increase in energy supply capacity by 5.6 million kilowatts through peak pricing strategies and enhancing the maximum consumption capacity of renewable energy by 12 million kilowatts during low pricing periods [5]. - Shandong has pioneered the capacity compensation mechanism, stabilizing coal power unit revenues and addressing the dual-price system, thereby ensuring long-term system capacity and laying a solid foundation for future capacity market development [6]. Group 3: National Policy Guidance - The issuance of the guidelines has further directed the refinement and optimization of Shandong's electricity market rules, addressing deep-seated contradictions in the market [7]. - The revised market rules allow user-side participation in the spot market, transitioning from a generator-side pricing model to a dual-sided pricing model involving both generation and consumption [7][8]. - Shandong aims to create a diverse and competitive electricity trading environment by integrating various new operational entities and ensuring comprehensive participation in the electricity market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines for the construction of continuous electricity spot markets, focusing on adapting market mechanisms for the full entry of renewable energy and enhancing system regulation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Spot Market Mechanism - The guidelines support local exploration of optimized spot market mechanisms under the full entry of renewable energy, aiming to create time-based price signals that reflect supply-demand relationships and adjustment costs [2]. - As of August 2025, all 26 provincial electricity spot markets in the State Grid operating area have been launched, with five provinces successfully transitioning to formal operations [2]. - The spot market has effectively incentivized both supply and demand optimization, with significant reductions in electricity costs and improved grid regulation capabilities [2]. Group 2: New Market Participants - The guidelines emphasize the need to improve mechanisms for various market participants, encouraging new entities like virtual power plants and smart microgrids to participate in spot market competition [4]. - Challenges faced by emerging market participants in provincial spot market trading necessitate the development of universal pricing models to enhance market engagement [4][5]. - The guidelines allow new entities to participate in pricing, which can lower entry barriers for small users and help manage negative electricity prices effectively [5]. Group 3: Auxiliary Services and Capacity Assurance - The guidelines propose the establishment of auxiliary service market systems tailored to local conditions, particularly in regions with high renewable energy installations [6]. - Experts highlighted the need for a capacity compensation mechanism to ensure long-term system capacity, addressing the challenges posed by the declining investment interest in traditional power sources due to the rise of renewable energy [7]. - The guidelines aim to balance the investment expectations of renewable and traditional power sources, ensuring the stability and security of the electricity system [7][8]. Group 4: Key Policy Directions - The nine key directions outlined in the guidelines include optimizing the spot clearing mechanism, enhancing participation mechanisms for new entities, and establishing reliable capacity compensation mechanisms [8]. - The guidelines and expert recommendations align towards constructing a market operation system that accommodates a high proportion of renewable energy, ensuring optimized resource allocation and stable supply [8].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 24.243 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.952 billion yuan, up 8.82% year-on-year [1] - The company signed new contracts worth 35.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.46%, with over 50% of contracts coming from outside the State Grid [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 15.348 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.50% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 2.272 billion yuan, up 7.33% year-on-year [1] - The company’s R&D investment in the first half of 2025 was 1.549 billion yuan, a 2.8% increase year-on-year, enhancing its core competitiveness [1] Business Segments - The smart grid segment generated revenue of 12.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.37% and a gross margin of 30.34% [2] - The energy low-carbon segment saw revenue of 6.541 billion yuan, up 29.49% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.59% [2] - New business revenue increased by 38.65% year-on-year, solidifying the company's leading position in the industry [2] International Expansion - The company’s revenue from non-grid businesses reached 11.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.72% [3] - Overseas revenue surged to 1.987 billion yuan, marking a 139.18% year-on-year growth, with significant projects in Saudi Arabia, South America, and other markets [3] - The company successfully entered the Brazilian market with smart electricity collection solutions and expanded its operations in Chile and Nicaragua [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its main business and achieve breakthroughs in international markets [3] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 1.09 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.26 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 20x, 18x, and 17x [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the electricity spot market is a significant step towards the market-oriented construction of the domestic electricity market, with a goal to achieve full coverage by the end of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Current Status and Development Goals - The electricity spot market is a key component of the electricity market system, reflecting true price signals and optimizing resource allocation [1] - As of now, five provinces in China have officially launched their spot markets, accumulating experience in market operation management [1] - The recent notification outlines clear construction goals and timelines for various regions, indicating an acceleration in the development of the electricity spot market [2] Group 2: Investment and Market Dynamics - The development of the electricity spot market is expected to enhance the investment and renovation efforts for flexible power sources, contributing to the construction of a new power system [3] - The expansion and improvement of the electricity spot market will facilitate market-based pricing for auxiliary services, encouraging investment in pumped storage and energy storage resources [3]