本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T1IRK9GQ7L65 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 2025年全球原油库存变化 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： IEA下调需求预测，原油多头或将面临供应过剩的行情 （彭博行业研究）—— 国际能源署(IEA)多次下调2025年原油需求预测表明，随着OPEC+增 产，原油多头面临市场忧虑可能会加剧。与此同时，电动汽车渗透率上升将继续令原油价格承 压，今年油价可能将下探55美元。 IEA原油需求预测 IEA多次下调原油需求预测 数据来源：彭博行业研究 原油库存增加可能导致WTI油价跌至55美元 继4月至8月逐月增产之后，OPEC+决定9月继续增产5 4 . 7万桶/日，这一决定将导致第四季度 油市出现最高达6 0万桶/日的供应过剩，全球原油库存也将因此增加。我们的模型显示，如 果OPEC+在第 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's automotive exports to the United States are facing significant challenges, with a record drop in export prices and potential impacts on the Japanese economy and automotive manufacturers' profitability [2][4][6]. Group 1: Export Price Decline - In June, Japan's automotive export price index to North America fell by 19.4% year-on-year, marking the largest single-month decline on record [2][3]. - The decline in export value was significantly greater than the decrease in export volume, which only fell by 3.9% in May, indicating a substantial drop in per-unit export prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The drop in automotive export prices raises concerns about the profitability of Japanese car manufacturers and could threaten the ongoing wage growth in Japan, which is crucial for the economy [6][8]. - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring these developments, as the wage-inflation cycle is a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics - The U.S. electric vehicle market is approaching a critical turning point, with a potential surge in sales expected in Q3 due to the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases [13][14]. - Major manufacturers like Tesla, Ford, and GM are likely to be significantly impacted by this policy change, with Tesla expected to benefit the most from the anticipated buying spree [16][18]. Group 4: Future Projections - Following the expected surge in Q3, a sharp decline in electric vehicle sales is anticipated in Q4 and beyond, leading to what has been termed an "electric vehicle hangover" [13][18]. - The global electric vehicle penetration rate was around 25% in June, with China leading at 53.3%, while the U.S. remains lagging at 8.6% [18][20].

Core Insights - Macquarie updated its report on China's electric vehicle (EV) sales, predicting that the mass market will continue to outperform the high-end market in May [1] Industry Overview - In April, plug-in electric vehicle sales reached 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, while the overall automotive market grew by 14%; the EV penetration rate remained at 51% [1] - The low-cost new energy vehicle startups (Xpeng, Leap Motor) maintained growth momentum, while high-end electric vehicles lagged behind [1] - BYD showed strong export performance, but demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is slowing [1] Company Performance - **BYD**: Sales increased by 21% year-on-year, driven by a record export volume of 79,000 units, with a year-to-date increase of 105%. Domestic sales grew by 11% year-on-year, lagging behind market performance due to slowing PHEV demand [3] - **Geely**: April sales remained flat month-on-month, but year-to-date sales increased by 49%, exceeding the company's annual growth target of 25%. April new energy vehicle sales reached 126,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 144% [4] - **Xpeng**: April sales exceeded 30,000 units, with a year-to-date increase of 313%, reflecting strong demand for popular models M03, P7t, and the refreshed G6 and G9 [5] - **Li Auto**: Sales decreased by 8% month-on-month, with a year-to-date increase of only 20%, falling behind the 36% growth rate of the new energy vehicle market [6] - **NIO**: Sales rebounded by 59% month-on-month, with brand sales increasing by 90% to 19,500 units, benefiting from increased promotions and the launch of the ET9 model [7] - **Zeekr**: Total sales for Zeekr and Lynk & Co increased by 19% year-on-year, slightly lagging behind the overall new energy vehicle market [8] - **Xiaomi**: Demand for the SU7 sports sedan remained strong, with April sales exceeding 28,000 units, reaching maximum production capacity [9] Sales Data Summary - In April 2025, the total EV market in China was 900,000 units, a decrease of 9.2% from March 2025, but a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [10] - BYD accounted for 42.2% of the market share with 380,100 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [10] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 125,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 144.2% [10] - Xpeng sold 35,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 273.1% [10] - Li Auto's sales were 33,900 units, with a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [10] - Xiaomi's sales were 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 296.7% [10]