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以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者徐珊珊 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 失意者通常有两种结局，要么一蹶不振，要么绝地求生，磷酸铁锂电池属于后者。 2021年6月，磷酸铁锂电池装机量反超三元锂电池，成为动力电池市场的主流选择。此后开启神挡杀神的开挂人生， 份额一路提高到72%，重回十年前的巅峰水平。 今年1-4月，国内磷酸铁锂电池装机份额超过80%，可谓独孤求败。向来以技术先进性自我标榜的海外车企，也罕见地 为磷酸铁锂摇旗呐喊。 磷酸铁锂和三元锂的技术讨论几乎与新能源车的历史一样长，这个问题在当下似乎又有了新的解读。 过去十年的动力电池市场可以清晰的划分为两个阶段，也是磷酸铁锂电池从波峰到谷底、再卷土重来的过程。 到"十城千辆"计划结束，25个示范城市共售出27432辆新能源车，其中个人采购量只有4400辆[1]。虽说成绩单不算理 想，但最大成果是培育了以"锂电四大天王"比克、比亚迪、力神和ATL（后孵化出宁德时代）为代表的电池生产商。 危险的地位 磷酸铁锂和三元锂的缠斗，可以一路追溯到2009年的"十城千辆"计划。 时值新能源产业链蹒跚起步，迎来为期三年的培育期，补贴力度可以用送钱形容：10米 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 16, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The carbon carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing as a doji again, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces. The total open interest increased by 1,360 lots, and the main contract switched to the 07 contract, with the 07 - 05 spread widening to 180. The spot market center of gravity moved down, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 50 to 71,550 and the price of industrial carbon remaining flat at 69,650. Currently, the downstream material factories have weak demand for spot purchases, and there is still a large gap between the quotes of upstream lithium salt factories and the expected purchase prices of downstream, resulting in cautious market purchasing sentiment. The prices of lithium mica ore and lithium spodumene ore decreased by 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the losses of lithium salt factories purchasing external lithium mica and lithium spodumene both narrowed slightly to 8,511 and 3,988 respectively. Although the current losses are not enough to cause obvious production cuts in salt factories, the current lithium price has fallen below the cost support line of integrated lithium mica production. Moreover, the impact of the previous US counter - tariffs is approaching the end, and the carbonate lithium will return to the fundamental logic. It is expected that the futures price of carbonate lithium is expected to stop falling and rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly downwards, the main contract closed as a doji, the total open interest increased by 1,360 lots, and the main contract switched to the 07 contract, with the 07 - 05 spread widening to 180 [6]. - Spot Market: The center of gravity of the spot market moved down, the price of electric carbon dropped by 50 to 71,550, and the price of industrial carbon remained flat at 69,650. The downstream demand for spot purchases is weak, and the market purchasing sentiment is cautious [6]. - Ore Market: The prices of lithium mica ore and lithium spodumene ore decreased by 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the losses of external - purchasing salt factories narrowed slightly [6]. - Outlook: The lithium price has fallen below the cost support line of integrated lithium mica production, and the impact of previous tariffs is approaching the end. The carbonate lithium will return to the fundamental logic, and the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6]. 3.2 Industry News - On April 14, Funeng Technology obtained the "Compliance Assessment Report for Power Batteries under the EU Battery Regulation (EU 2023/1542)" from TÜV SÜD, which provides a solid technical backing and authoritative qualification guarantee for the company's European market layout and globalization strategy [7]. - The Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently announced the "List of Provincial Major Projects in Yunnan Province for 2025" and the "List of 'Top Priority' Projects in Yunnan Province for 2025", including 19 lithium - related projects such as a 500,000 t/a lithium iron phosphate project and a 320,000 - ton lithium manganese iron phosphate project [7]. - At the 13th International Energy Storage Summit and Exhibition, CATL exhibited a 587Ah large - capacity cell integrated in the new energy storage system "Tianheng". The cell has a high energy density of 430Wh/L, better safety performance than small cells, and can increase the throughput capacity of the battery's entire life cycle by 48% and IRR by 2% - 3% through the bionic SEI film technology [8]