Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, the global supply - side growth rate of primary aluminum may slow down in 2026 due to capacity constraints in China and slow new capacity and复产 progress overseas, while demand is expected to remain resilient, with the supply gap expanding compared to 2025. The mid - term supply - demand pattern is still strong. In the near term, the aluminum price may fluctuate in late November as there is no significant new demand increase despite sufficient supply and resilient demand [4][11]. - The aluminum market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait for the price to rise. For short - term trading, consider reducing or exiting long positions to avoid risks [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Domestic bauxite inventory has reached the same - period high, sufficient for this year's production. Although there are repeated disturbances in the mining end, the short - term impact is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of November 14, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96 million tons and a utilization rate of about 85.37%. Alumina supply and demand have been in surplus for some time, and supply flexibility is restricted. The expected increase in imported ore supply also puts downward pressure on ore prices [9]. - **Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons. The global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage, and overseas production cuts due to power shortages may reduce future supply increments [9]. - **Import and Export**: In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, slightly lower than in September, at the average level in recent years. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,700 yuan/ton, narrowing from last week's 2,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: Different aluminum product sectors have different demand situations. The aluminum profile and alloy sectors are relatively stable, while the aluminum plate, strip, and foil sectors may face a downward trend. The aluminum cable sector may see a slight increase, and the overall downstream processing industry shows a differentiated trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, basically stable compared to last week, about 10% higher than the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,500 tons, about 2% higher than last week and about 50% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory is about 1% higher than last week and about 22% lower than last year, still at a low level in recent years [10][17][18]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 22,800 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,800 yuan/ton, up from 4,400 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The overseas macro - environment is unfavorable due to uncertainties in the US economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance. The aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is strong [11]. Important Industry Price Changes - The price of bauxite is generally stable, but the market is pessimistic about the future, expecting a further decline in December. The coal price has been rising since September, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The alumina price has been falling since mid - August, and the cost support may strengthen after the dry season in the southwest [12]. Important Industry Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory has slightly increased, remaining at a high level this year. The alumina inventory has been rapidly accumulating since late May, reaching a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas is stable, while the aluminum rod inventory has increased [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing a differentiated trend. It is expected that the short - term operating rate will continue to show a differentiated pattern [26]. Futures and Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai aluminum futures is moderately weak [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,840 yuan/ton this week, up from - 2,080 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread has a moderately negative impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is near the high since April 2022. The latest net long position has slightly decreased, but the long - side has been increasing positions since June, and the short - side has been slightly increasing since October. The overall market is still strong [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week, at a high level this year. The long - and short - sides have been increasing positions since October. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased, with large internal differences. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has decreased in the past two weeks. Overall, the main funds are still bullish, but the differences are increasing [41].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in aluminum prices has led to significant gains in the stock prices of major aluminum companies, with many reaching new highs this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, 2023, 16 out of 32 listed aluminum companies have seen stock price increases exceeding 50% this year, with Hong Chuang Holdings, Zhongfu Industrial, and Yian Technology leading with increases of 156%, 149%, and 127% respectively [1]. - Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. have also reached their highest stock prices since listing [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Aluminum futures and spot prices have remained strong, with London spot aluminum prices up 13.1% year-to-date, reaching $2,885 per ton, and COMEX aluminum futures up 11.73% at $2,845 per ton [2]. - The main futures contract in Shanghai has also seen a rise of over 10%, reaching 21,880 yuan per ton [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 26.325 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 8.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.772 billion yuan, up 8.09% [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the same period was 22.321 billion yuan, a 7.34% increase, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% [3]. - China Aluminum's profit for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 20.775 billion yuan, an 18.47% increase, with a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a rigid supply structure [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization is high, generally around 97%-98%, with some areas exceeding 100% [6]. - Analysts predict that the demand for aluminum in sectors like power transmission, photovoltaics, and energy storage will continue to grow, supporting future aluminum prices [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global aluminum market may enter a replenishment cycle due to historically low inventories, with supply constraints likely to support high aluminum prices [6]. - The long-term outlook for aluminum prices remains positive, driven by consumption, although short-term supply disruptions may create volatility [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 135.1 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% compared to RMB 100.1 billion in the first half of 2024 [7] - The growth in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy and alumina products, along with a decrease in coal prices leading to lower electricity costs [7] - The company has a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% for the year 2024, indicating strong long-term investment value [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market are favorable, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles expected to grow [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 133,624 million - 2024: RMB 156,169 million - 2025E: RMB 152,307 million - 2026E: RMB 158,018 million - 2027E: RMB 158,736 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 11,461 million - 2024: RMB 22,372 million - 2025E: RMB 22,419 million - 2026E: RMB 24,585 million - 2027E: RMB 25,293 million [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.41 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.8 [6][8]